2015年7月14日 星期二

MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2015 - When Left Wing Rises

Latest fund price: $1.8910 (-0.0889, 4.49%)
Total Market Value: $1,706,029.2
Total units: 902,177.0315 units

Dear Investors,

This month's report came in quite late because I intend to do so, I was waiting for the result of the Greece's bailout referendum, and i expected no matter how it turned out, they still have to cooperate with the European commission (because they have to), and now we all know people who own other's money have to return it one way or another (otherwise the whole financial system just won't work anymore).

I have paid a lot of attention the Greece's debt problem long time ago, it rated more importantly than the recently market correction (some say crash) happened in Hong Kong and China, but wait Calvin, shouldn't you be more aware of the HK market than Greece since most of your investments are in HK? No no no, it is not important what is happening here in Hong Kong, in a bull market, correction are normal, also necessary, people who got panic have no clue (or no experience) in the real financial world, I don't panic even it dropped 60%, let alone 20-30%, get over it please.

When I was at Istanbul during my honeymoon in May, I met a girl from Greece (I have to emphasize I met her with my wife together :P ) on a city boat touring trip, I took the chance and asked her view on the Greece's problem, she said she has always felt EU is taking advantage on this matter, that's why she voted Alexis Tsipras and hope for a change, Alexis Tsipras is considered to be an extreme left in politics, it occurs to me left wing never got much chance in a capitalism system unless some really bad things happened, traditionally socialist is not so good with the money, but they appear to care about the people more, while capitalist give people impression that they only care about money and is the cause of the suffering of the poor.

So when left wing rise, most likely they will use "will of the people", "social justice", "equality" to attract voters, wile when right wing rise, they will use "economic growth", "good economic data", "wealth increase", "better living quality" to attract people to vote for them. Yet in situation like Greece where majority of the people with a care free attitude, get used to borrowing money and have enjoyed long term benefits more than they have inputted, they can't go back to a tough life (which to most of the people consider as normal).

Frankly I don't want to get too rough on them, but sometimes I just cannot bear the fact that after borrowing, they can justify not returning the money because of corrupted politician, as the result turns out now, even the extreme left have to face the inevitable truth, going into default (not keeping a promise) is the no.1 taboo in finance. yet to be fair, I do not see Greece will turn out to be great unless they have a real solid reform, it means changing the lay back attitude, produce more than they can spend, and this is just my prediction, eventually they will be kicked out of the EU zone.

regards
Calvin