2017年1月15日 星期日

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2016 – What a year… 這一年真的是…

Nov Fund Price/ 十一月基金價格: $1.8618
Latest Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8126
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,589,655.96
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Statistic 統計數據

*Collect and Withdraw are the amount in and out from investors
**Income and Expense represent done deals of this fund (brought and sold assets)

**收入及支出指基金已完成的交易 (已買入及賣出資產)

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year, finally I have finished all the statistic work and can sit down to write something. As title described, 2016 was full of surprises and disappointments. 

Let’s start with this fund, the fund price has increased from 1.7689 to 1.8126 (2.47%) only this year, while the HS index has increased 86.16 points (0.39%) only (from 21949.4 to 22000.56), the assets didn’t perform as I expected, for example I have taken 56k profit from stocks in 2014, a massive 330k in 2015, but in 2016, I have only made 16k, which is even lower than my monthly wage, haha. Of course I am talking about sold stocks, but even consider unsold assets, they didn’t perform well, most of the incomes (2.47%) are from stocks dividends and interest from loans, the price of the stocks and funds are falling apart.

To save some face, I guess I can give credit to my “luck” that I sold all foreign currencies in the beginning of the year, esp. CNY, GBP and EUR, and JPY in the middle of the year. When I say luck I really mean it, the reason I sold my GBP and EUR not because I can “foreseen” the outcome of BREXIT, in fact I didn’t feel strongly about the referendum, nor my crystal ball told me the great falling of CNY and uprising USD, I sold GBP and EUR mainly because I need to convert those currencies to buy stocks, most of these money are left from my honeymoon in 2015, and my Japan trip for a friend’s wedding in Feb have made me buy more Yen at a very cheap rate, after the trip I didn’t want to keep them so I sold all of them at a higher rate and earned a few bucks. I did have a strong feeling to sell all the RMB, because let’s face it, nothing can go up and up for many years, it is funny to see how the Chinese government say they have little room to go down. One thing I have learnt over the years in investment is that, you don’t need to worry about a market, until the government tells you not to worry about it.

Anyway there were also some good surprises in 2016, e.g. the gold and few good stocks picks, the stocks HK:853 and HK:8216 have 50% and 30% profit, I have sold both of them, yet their % in the portfolio is so little it didn’t make a huge contribution to the overall performance. The stocks I heavily invested barely moved, e.g. HK: 1431 from $0.475 to $0.51 (7%), even though another stock HK:1373 (aka Japan Home in HK) has risen from $1.14 to $1.62 (+30%), it still hasn’t reached my average purchasing price, so I guess I have to be more patient.

Again I have to emphasis we are unable to predict the precise timing of the rise and fall, what I am doing to keep buying in good assets that will eventually produce a good outcome, otherwise we are doing speculation rather than investment. What investment all about is to keep buying good assets, and the definition of good assets IS NOT that will give you immediately rise of its price in a very short period, the definition of a good asset is to generate stable cash inflow to the company (and dividend to the shareholders), it may perform poorly in price in short run, but in long term it will definitely have a significant rise in stock price also. 

You can see from the statistic I practice what I preach, the money I spend on buy assets are much more than money I got from selling (in 2016 I have cashed out 190k but have spent 327k), some might ask, where the extra money comes from to support you to spend more? It is the magic of investment, the cash (dividend, interest, new investors) keep generating from your assets (stocks, funds, loans) should reach an equilibrium that you do not need to put in new money anymore, meaning the cash generating from the assets you own will become self-sustain, start rolling like a snowball and eventually get bigger and bigger by itself (That is why the name of the biography of Warren Buffett is called snowball). Even said that, I do hope 2017 will have a better outcome.






無論如何,2016年還是有一些好的驚喜,例如黃金和少數好股票,股票HK:853和HK:8216有50%和30%的利潤,我已經賣了他們,但他們的投資組合中的百份比是如此的少,沒有對整體表現做出巨大貢獻。我大舉投資的股票幾乎沒有動過,例如 HK:1431從0.475至0.51(7%),儘管另一隻股票HK: 1373從$1.14上升至$1.62(+ 30%),但仍未達到我的平均買入價,所以我想我必須更加耐心。


你可以從統計數據中看到我身體力行,我花在購買資產的錢遠高於我從賣出資產的錢(在2016年我現套了19萬,但花了32萬),有些人可能會問,在那裡額外的錢來自支持你花更多的錢?這就是投資的魔力,從你的資產(股票,基金,貸款)產生的現金(股息,利息,新投資者資金)最終應該會達到一個平均,你不需要再投入新的錢,意味著你擁有的資產產生的現金可以自我維持,開始像一個雪球滾動,最終自身變得愈來愈大(這就是為巴菲特的傳記的書名叫雪球). 盡管是這樣說,我都希望2017年會有更好的結果。


Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
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