2017年1月15日 星期日

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2016 – What a year… 這一年真的是…

Nov Fund Price/ 十一月基金價格: $1.8618
Latest Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8126
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,589,655.96
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Statistic 統計數據

*Collect and Withdraw are the amount in and out from investors
**Income and Expense represent done deals of this fund (brought and sold assets)

*流入及流出是指投資者的資金
**收入及支出指基金已完成的交易 (已買入及賣出資產)



Dear Investors,

Happy New Year, finally I have finished all the statistic work and can sit down to write something. As title described, 2016 was full of surprises and disappointments. 

Let’s start with this fund, the fund price has increased from 1.7689 to 1.8126 (2.47%) only this year, while the HS index has increased 86.16 points (0.39%) only (from 21949.4 to 22000.56), the assets didn’t perform as I expected, for example I have taken 56k profit from stocks in 2014, a massive 330k in 2015, but in 2016, I have only made 16k, which is even lower than my monthly wage, haha. Of course I am talking about sold stocks, but even consider unsold assets, they didn’t perform well, most of the incomes (2.47%) are from stocks dividends and interest from loans, the price of the stocks and funds are falling apart.

To save some face, I guess I can give credit to my “luck” that I sold all foreign currencies in the beginning of the year, esp. CNY, GBP and EUR, and JPY in the middle of the year. When I say luck I really mean it, the reason I sold my GBP and EUR not because I can “foreseen” the outcome of BREXIT, in fact I didn’t feel strongly about the referendum, nor my crystal ball told me the great falling of CNY and uprising USD, I sold GBP and EUR mainly because I need to convert those currencies to buy stocks, most of these money are left from my honeymoon in 2015, and my Japan trip for a friend’s wedding in Feb have made me buy more Yen at a very cheap rate, after the trip I didn’t want to keep them so I sold all of them at a higher rate and earned a few bucks. I did have a strong feeling to sell all the RMB, because let’s face it, nothing can go up and up for many years, it is funny to see how the Chinese government say they have little room to go down. One thing I have learnt over the years in investment is that, you don’t need to worry about a market, until the government tells you not to worry about it.

Anyway there were also some good surprises in 2016, e.g. the gold and few good stocks picks, the stocks HK:853 and HK:8216 have 50% and 30% profit, I have sold both of them, yet their % in the portfolio is so little it didn’t make a huge contribution to the overall performance. The stocks I heavily invested barely moved, e.g. HK: 1431 from $0.475 to $0.51 (7%), even though another stock HK:1373 (aka Japan Home in HK) has risen from $1.14 to $1.62 (+30%), it still hasn’t reached my average purchasing price, so I guess I have to be more patient.

Again I have to emphasis we are unable to predict the precise timing of the rise and fall, what I am doing to keep buying in good assets that will eventually produce a good outcome, otherwise we are doing speculation rather than investment. What investment all about is to keep buying good assets, and the definition of good assets IS NOT that will give you immediately rise of its price in a very short period, the definition of a good asset is to generate stable cash inflow to the company (and dividend to the shareholders), it may perform poorly in price in short run, but in long term it will definitely have a significant rise in stock price also. 

You can see from the statistic I practice what I preach, the money I spend on buy assets are much more than money I got from selling (in 2016 I have cashed out 190k but have spent 327k), some might ask, where the extra money comes from to support you to spend more? It is the magic of investment, the cash (dividend, interest, new investors) keep generating from your assets (stocks, funds, loans) should reach an equilibrium that you do not need to put in new money anymore, meaning the cash generating from the assets you own will become self-sustain, start rolling like a snowball and eventually get bigger and bigger by itself (That is why the name of the biography of Warren Buffett is called snowball). Even said that, I do hope 2017 will have a better outcome.

Regards,
Calvin

親愛的投資者,

新年快樂,我終於完成了所有的統計工作,可以坐下來寫點東西。如標題所言,2016年充滿驚愕及失望。

讓我們從這個基金開始講起,今年基金價格只從1.7689增加到1.8126(2.47%),而HS指數只增加了86.16點(0.39%)(從21949.4點到22000.56點),資產沒有按我預期表現,例如我在2014年只從股票已經套現了5萬6千的利潤,在2015年大規模增加至33萬,但在2016年只有一萬六,甚至比我的月工資還低,哈哈。當然我只是指已經賣出的股票,但即使考慮未售出的資產,他們的表現都不佳,大部分收入(2.47%)來自股票股息和貸款利息,股票和基金的價格簡直是支離破碎。

為了挽回一些面子,我想我可以歸功於我的“運氣”,我在年初賣出了所有外幣,尤其是人民幣,英鎊和歐元,在年中就賣出了日元。當我說運氣我是認真的,我賣出英鎊和歐元的原因不是因為我可以「預見」英國脫歐的結果,實際上我對公投沒有強烈的感覺,也沒有水晶球告訴我人民幣會大跌及美元的上升,我賣英鎊和歐元主要是因為我需要轉換這些貨幣買股票,這些錢大部分是我在2015年的蜜月留下來的,而我在2月因要到日本參加朋友婚禮令我可以在一個非常便宜的價格購買更多日元,在旅行後我不想留下他們,所以在更高的匯率全部賣走了而賺了幾塊錢。但我對人民幣確實有一個強烈的感覺而賣走,因為沒有甚麼可以上升這麼多年,中國政府他們沒有空間下降是一件很好笑的事。多年來我在投資中學到的一件事就是,你跟本不需要擔心一個市場,直到政府告訴你不要擔心。

無論如何,2016年還是有一些好的驚喜,例如黃金和少數好股票,股票HK:853和HK:8216有50%和30%的利潤,我已經賣了他們,但他們的投資組合中的百份比是如此的少,沒有對整體表現做出巨大貢獻。我大舉投資的股票幾乎沒有動過,例如 HK:1431從0.475至0.51(7%),儘管另一隻股票HK: 1373從$1.14上升至$1.62(+ 30%),但仍未達到我的平均買入價,所以我想我必須更加耐心。

我要再次強調,我們不能精確預測上升和下跌的時間,我做的只是保持購買良好的資產,最終將會產生一個好的結果,否則我們做的只是投機,而不是投資。投資就是繼續購買良好的資產,而優質資產的定義不會給你很短的時間之內價格暴漲,優質資產的定義是能夠產生穩定的現金流入公司(和股東分紅),短期內價格可能表現不佳,但從長期來看,股價也肯定會大幅上漲。

你可以從統計數據中看到我身體力行,我花在購買資產的錢遠高於我從賣出資產的錢(在2016年我現套了19萬,但花了32萬),有些人可能會問,在那裡額外的錢來自支持你花更多的錢?這就是投資的魔力,從你的資產(股票,基金,貸款)產生的現金(股息,利息,新投資者資金)最終應該會達到一個平均,你不需要再投入新的錢,意味著你擁有的資產產生的現金可以自我維持,開始像一個雪球滾動,最終自身變得愈來愈大(這就是為巴菲特的傳記的書名叫雪球). 盡管是這樣說,我都希望2017年會有更好的結果。

問候,
卡爾文



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