MECHCalvin Fund 2018 Annual Report – 單一決定 Single Decision

請在下面按「閱讀更多」閱讀英文版本

Please click "read more" to read English version below

Dec Fund Price｜12月基金價格: $ 2.0170

Jan Fund Price｜1月基金價格: $ 2.0648

Feb Fund Price (Latest)｜2月 (最新)基金價格: $ 2.0328

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 2,320,081.76

Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,141,313.9287 Units

親愛的投資者，

終於我有時間坐下來寫應該要在1月完成的年度報告，新年很忙，農曆新年也很忙，我還在忙，但我需要為朋友將要出版的書寫序，所以我決定擠一些時間來完成這份報告。

現實沒太大變化，基金再次回歸$2。我也在考慮當它達到$3時將基金的大部分資金歸還給投資者，如果收益率保持不變這應該會更快實現。從下表中可以看出，平均年回報率為8 %，將投資從$1增加到$2需要9年時間，但是從$2增加到$3只需要5年。

長期投資就像棒球（或發射火箭）一樣，球會飛多遠決定在被擊中時，當然需要時間才到達落地的位置，但是當它一旦離開球棒就很難改變球的路線。今天的回報是9年前已經確定了，而不是今天，大多數投機者（自稱投資者）可能不同意，因為他們往往每天都進出市場，他們預計他們不同時間會獲得不同的回報。然而，對於選擇舊式「買入並持有」策略的投資者而言，當我們選擇購買哪種股票時就決定了我們將獲得多少回報。

這並不能保證結局一定是美好，而在現實情況下，我不時會調整我的投資，其中一個例子就是在2018年，我由香港股票市場從轉出了基金約10％的資產到黃金，這是一個準確的判斷，這是為甚麼在指數下跌-13%時我們仍然獲得+2%的唯一原因。然而，所有這些「調整」並沒有改變大多數回報是來自正確選股，而不是「技術操作」的事實。

有一個最常被問到的問題，你一開始是如何選擇購買哪種股票？這個問題背後隱藏的意思是，你如何發現可以安全買入，之後入睡都會知道將來會上漲的股票（不用擔心變成垃圾）。我將嘗試在下5個週年報告（希望），從$2到$3的旅程中詳細解答這個問題。

回到本年度報告，2018年沒有太多動作，除了上面提及黃金轉換令價格獲得重大支持外，我賣了兩隻股票：

微創醫療（HK.853） 

微創醫療是一家中國公司，主要生產高端介入醫療設備，如重建關節，脊柱和創傷，以及其他專業植入物和設備。我和這隻股票有很多歷史，因為它與中國企業不同，微創醫療是少數專門針對海外高端市場的公司，而且質量已經獲得認同，我在2013年開始「交易」這隻股票，當時我在$5.54買在2014年以$4.62賣出，我在2015年以$3.95再次買入， 2016年在$5.7左右再次賣出，今次我在2018年3月再次買入並在12月以$9全部賣出。我不喜歡這種進進出出的操作，如果我從2013年起保留這個股票，我會賺更多錢，因為最高價格達到每股$11。不幸的是，現實中投資者進出這個基金讓我別無選擇，只能出售不在我主要投資組合中的股票，但我打算在我的現金流量更好時再次買入。

俄鋁（HK.486） 

俄鋁公司是來自俄羅斯全球第二大的鋁公司，我不喜歡大公司，但是讓我想到它是上年的美國制裁，如果你不知道是甚麼原因，可以回去看看關於這件事的新聞，基本上宣布消息時引起了超過50%的跌幅，市場沒有預料到（我沒想預料），但我預料美國只是利用俄鋁作為武器迫走其中一名董事局成員，所以這對我來說是一個投機機會。三月份我在$2.2左右買入，等待又等待，過程中非常不穩定，但我知道當美國取消制裁時，它最終會恢復正常。不幸的是，其中一位投資者需要提取資金來修理她的房子，所以在12月我將它以相同的價格跟微創醫療一起賣走，你應該已經估計到會發生甚麼事了，當我把它賣掉後，這股就一飛沖天了… 超過100%的利潤未能走進基金。

其實我喜歡投資者贖回他們的資金以便可以充分利用（這就是這個基金的用途），即使有時候這些意想不到的舉動會損害我的基金業績，但過去我的投資者為贖回投資用於房屋裝修，婚禮，家庭... 我都感到非常高興，除了一種情況，一些投資者（很少）從我的基金中提取資金來彌補他們從另一筆投資中的損失，我不知道為甚麼我十分討厭這種做法，感覺就像我在為別人的錯誤而工作，更糟糕的是，他們應該放棄他們不好的投資，而不是拿走好的東西而持有壞的東西。在過去的幾個月裡，我已經開始考慮何時關閉這只基金，或者只保留很少的核心投資者，很可能會在未來幾年內達到$3的時候。首先，我覺得我已經獲得了足夠多的經驗，其次我已經證明了我的觀點，即「價值投資」是很簡單（但不容易）而且有用，通過一些努力和常識，你可以擊敗市場上90%的專業基金經理甚至是我工作的保險公司所提供的基金，我知道這樣說可能與我的工作有利益衝突，作為一個保險代理人，我應該「賣」這些基金，令這個「行業」可以繼續從那些不合理又超級荒謬的管理費生存下去，我猜這就是世界的運作方式吧。

無論如何，我想在本報告中所講的就是這樣多，有時一個單一的決定可以拯救世界，正如·巴菲特所說：「事實上，我們現在每年有一個好主意就夠了」。我希望今年市場會好轉，然後我就可以在不做任何事情的情況下獲得更多收益，是的，這在股市是有可能的，哈哈。

最好的問候，

Calvin

Dear Investors,

Finally, I got time to sit down and write the annual report suppose to be done in Jan, the new year was busy, the Chinese New Year was also busy, I am still busy yet I need to write foreword for a friend who is going to publish a book, so I decided to squeeze some time to finish this report as well.

Nothing changed much, the fund has sat above $2 once again. I am also thinking to return most part of the fund back to the investors when it reaches $3, which should be achieved much quicker if the rate of return unchanged. As you can see from the table below, with average annual return of 8%, it would take 9 years to double the investment from $1 to $2, however it will only take extra 5 years to increase from $2 to $3.

Long term investment is like baseball (or launching rockets), how far the ball will go is set when the ball is hit, for sure it will take some time to get where it lands, however it is very difficult to change the course of the projectile once it leaves the bat. The return today was set 9 years ago, not today, most speculator (self-claim investors) might disagrees, because they tend to get in and out of the market every day, they expect they will get different return from time to time. However, for investors who choose to use the old-school “buy and hold” strategy, how much return we will get is pretty much set when we chose which stock to buy.

This doesn’t always guarantee a positive ending, and in real world situation, I always make adjustment to my investment, one of the examples is in 2018, I switchedexited about 10% assets of this fund from Hong Kong stock market to Gold, turns out to be an accurate judgement, that’s the only reason why we still get +2% when the index was down -13%. However, all these “adjustments” does not change the fact most of the return are from correct stock picking rather than “technical operations”.

Now here is the most asked questions, how do you choose which stock to buy in the first place? The hidden meaning behind this question is how you find it safe just to buy a stock and go to sleep knowing it will go up in the future (and not worry it will go trash). I will try to explain this question in details through the journey from $2 to $3 in the next 5 anniversary report (hopefully).

Back to this annual report, as for 2018 there wasn’t much action, apart from the gold switch cause major support to the price, I have only sold two stocks,

Microport (HK.853)

Microport is a Chinese company that manufacture high-end interventional medical devices such as reconstructive joints, spine and trauma, and other professional implants and equipment. I have many history with this stock because unlike other Chinese companies, Microport is few that target oversea high-end market specifically and their quality actually been approved, I started “trading” with this stock back in 2013, when I bought it at $5.54 and sold it at $4.62 in 2014, I bought it again in 2015 at $3.95 and sold it again around $5.7 in 2016, this time I bought it once again in Mar, 2018 and sold all of it at $9 in Dec. I do not like this get in and get out operation, and if I kept this stock since 2013, I would have made much more money, since at highest it hit $11 a share. Unfortunately in reality investors get in and out of this fund made me no choice but to sell stocks that are not in my main portfolio, I am planning to buy again when my cash flow of this fund is better.

Rusal (HK.486)

Rusal is the second largest aluminium company by primary production output in Russia, I do not like large companies but what makes it comes to my head is the U.S. sanctions last year, go back and watch the news if you don’t know what was that about, basically it caused a more than 50% drop when the news was announced, the market didn’t expect that (I didn’t expect that), what I expect is US is just using Rusal as a weapon to get one of the directors fired, so it was a speculating opportunity for me. I got in around $2.2 in March, I waited and waited, it was very volatile yet I know eventually it will go back to normal when US remove the sanction. Unfortunately one of the investors needed to withdraw her money to fix her house, so I had to sell it at the same price when I bought it in Dec along with Microport, you should already know the stories, once I sold it this stock went sky rocking… more than 100% profit of this stock never made it to the fund.

I like investors withdraw their fund so they can put their money into good use (this is what it is for), even sometimes these unexpected move hurt my fund performance a little, but in the past my investors withdraw their investment for events like house fixing, wedding, family… I feel quite happy about it, except one condition, some investors (very few) withdraw money from my fund to cover their loss from another investments, I do not know why I hate that so much, it’s like I am working for someone else mistakes, and make it even worse, they should leave their bad investments instead of taking out what’s good and keep what’s bad. In the last couple months I have already start thinking when I will shut down this fund or only keep very few core investors, and I might do so when it reach $3 in the next couple years. Firstly I feel I already gained enough experience for something bigger, secondly I have proven my point that “value investing” is simple (not easy) and work, with some effort and common sense you can beat 90% of the professional fund managers out on the market even my insurance company have offered, I know it might contradict my job, as an insurance agent I am supposed to “sell” those fund, so the “industry” can live on from those unreasonable ultra-ridiculous management fee, well, I guess that’s how this world work.

Anyway, that’s all I want to say in this report, sometimes one single decision can save the world, as Warren Buffett said: “Indeed, we'll now settle for one good idea a year”. I hope the market will get much better this year, then I can gain more without doing anything, yes it is possible in stock market, haha.

Regards,

Calvin