Latest fund price: $1.7689 (-0.0084, 0.47%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,494,796.42
Total units: 845,065.4598 units
Dear Investors,
Happy New Year! Finally I can sit down and write something properly, well I have to, after all it has been awhile. We are now in 2016 but none of the car is flying as the movie “back to the future” described, but surely the world has changed a lot, human nature? Not so much.
Anyway, let’s do less storytelling and go back to the business. The stock market has dropped since the hype in April for 7 months consecutively, not exactly consecutively but the downward trend is obvious.
I didn’t make any changes since last report (Oct), except sold all my RMB, it seems it wasn’t a bad idea looking back now. I have attached my fund performance against the Hang Seng Index, and attached ALL my previous trades (Hong Kong stocks only) in the excel file, it is a solid evidence of my investment skill over the years and I only disclose this information to my investors exclusively, so please don’t share it.
This year I hope my fund can reached 2-2.5 million HKD in size, I don’t know how I will get there and where to locate more investors, but I know eventually I will succeed. Frankly I didn’t even know how I got here to from the first place but here we are, it seems things just happened progressively. I expect the market to be weak in the short future so I want to spend time to talk about more about the interest hike, if you are not interested, you can stop reading to get back to your work/ rest/ games now.
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Heraclitus once said: “The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change”, however I am more of a fan of the French saying: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" (the more it changes, the more it's stay the same)
The financial world keep changing its game and people (even the professional) found it hard to keep up, every situation seems different, you can follow hundreds of Wall Street journalists, Analysts and financial professionals have thousands of opinion (that’s why I never follow any of them), even my salesman colleagues in the insurance company need to keep up with all these hardly understand information (if you want to appear to be professional in front of their clients), people are not interested in things they are already know and craving for the ever changing game.
To me all these are unnecessary and more importantly – useless, each time people say this time is different! They can give you 10,000 reasons why you have to look at the current situation differently in order to fit their own agenda, a salesman will keep telling you this is the best time to buy because this time is different! All these mediocre fund managers will tell you shamelessly this is the best time to invest because this time is different! (Regardless they have lost a big chunk of money from the investors previously) and moreover, the average people keep falling for these delusive ideas because they believe “this time is different”, every time!
Understanding each crisis is different outside but pretty much the same in nature will save you a lot of stress, the market consist of people and human nature never change, the financial world behave, speak and act repeatedly with different “appearances and excuses”, but in nature they are ALL THE SAME, no matter what anyone tells you, they are ALL THE SAME!
We had the great depression back in the 20’s, the energy crisis in the 70’s, the Black Monday in 1987, Asian financial crisis in 1997, dot com bubble in 2000, SARS in 2003, Financial Crisis in 2008, The European debt crisis in 2010, and we are waiting for something bigger to come, yet it doesn’t matter whatever crisis throw at us, the market behavior is only driven by two factors, “Fear” and “Greed”, nothing else, no matter what anyone tells you.
Every crisis a bunch of clueless investors imagine the end of the world might coming, and the all these “professionals”, journalists, media give everyone a push, the fear gasp everyone’s breath and took sell as the decision because it is too “risky!”; But when the market rise, everyone seems forget about so called risk and want to join the game because everyone else seems making money, it is too stupid not to join the party, of course again the “professional”, journalists and media will also give them a push, because why not if this seems to please everyone (esp. when they are “drunk” with their paper wealth).
It is impossible to predict what the next crisis will be, if you can foresee the future you don’t need to invest anymore, fortunately an intelligent investor do not require knowing the future in order to be wealthy, in fact spending too much time try to figure out whether tomorrow will be raining or not might be a completely waste of time, that is why I do not understand what with all these economic forecast reports from many finance institution, as informative as they seems they are utterly useless, but that’s how they get pay and that’s how this world work, we need a lot of useless jobs otherwise with the growth speed of the world population, the unemployment rate won’t look good, yeah right.
Anyway, I am expecting a rough ride in the coming year, the US asset rise have reached to a ridiculous level due to the 5 years long QE, I won’t spend time to discuss the details of the crisis the FED is creating, I can only say it is extremely rare within the history of free market, a mega huge bubble is created by the federal government, in fact I cannot think of any examples in the history of mankind, but USA did it, with all the money printing since 2008, they have created a mega huge bubble that seems make the data looks right on paper, but it didn’t help the real economy that much (it helped a little bit), but most of the benefits went into the asset holders, corporation and already rich people, what she has left is a much higher debt, and frankly they cannot afford any interest rise, however they have decided to do so, this self-inflated bubble will lead to a huge burst eventually, I don’t know when this will happen, but I know it is coming, I can already feel it, so do prepare for some really rough ride in the near future. In the mean time I will embrace gold, since in the time of fear, gold will become the “safeguard” of many investors, and I expect a lot of fear will be coming, stay tuned!
Regards,
Calvin
親愛的投資者，
新年快樂！我終於可以坐下來寫些的東西，其實是一定要，畢竟已經過了一段時間。我們現在已經在2016年，但沒有像電影「回到未來」中的描述滿天飛車是，但世界肯定已經發生了很大變化，人的本性？卻沒那麼多。
無論如何，讓我們做的少講故事，返回到業務。四月份被炒作的股市已連續下跌7個月連續，不完全是連續，但下降趨勢非常明顯。
自從上一次報告（10月），除出售我所有的人民幣，我沒有再做過任何改變，現在回頭來看，這也許不是一個壞主意。以上附上我的基金表現比較恆生指數，也附上了自從基金成立以來所有的交易（只限港股）的Excel文件，這是我多年來的投資技術的強力證據，但我只能透露這些信息給我的投資者，所以請不要分享它。
今年，我希望我的基金能達到二至二百五十萬港元的規模，我不知道我會如何達到，或在哪裡可以找到更多的投資者，但我知道最終我會成功的。坦白說，我甚至不知道我一開始行到今天，但結果今天我們都在這裡，好像事情慢慢就發生了。我預期市場在短期會繼續疲弱，所以我想花時間來談論加息，如果你不感興趣，你現在可以停止閱讀回到你的工作/休息/遊戲。
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赫拉克利特曾說過：「唯一不變的就是變化本身」，但我比較是法國諺語的「粉絲」：“plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”（事情改變越多，越顯得其本質不變）
金融世界的遊戲不斷變化，人們（甚至是專業人士）都很難跟上，每一種情況都似乎不同，你可以按照數百位華爾街記者，分析師和金融專業提供幾千上萬的意見（這就是為什麼我從來沒有跟隨他們任何一個），甚至我保險公司的業務員同事都需要跟上這些很難理解的資訊（如果你想在客戶面前看起來像個專業），人們對已知的事情已經不感興趣，他們都渴望針不斷變化的遊戲。
對我來說，這些資訊都是不必要的，更重要的是 – 根本沒用，每次有人說這一次是不同的！他們可以給你一萬個理由為甚麼你需要看看目前的情況跟之前如何不同，以符合自己的利益，推銷員將會繼續告訴你這正是最佳的買入時機，因為這一次是不同的！所有平庸的基金經理都會厚顏無恥地會告訴你是最佳的投資時機，因為這一次是不同的！ （不管他們之前才輸掉大一部分來自投資人的錢），更甚者，普通人卻不停繼續跌落這些虛妄的想法，因為他們也認為「這一次是不同的」，而且是每一次！
了解每次危機表面上都是不同，但本質上沒有分別會為你節省很多壓力，市場由人組成而人的本性永遠不會改變，世界金融市場以不同的「外表和藉口」不停重複相同的行為，聲調及行動，但在本質上它們都是一樣的，不管甚麼人告訴你，他們都是一樣的！
我們經過20年代的大蕭條， 70年代的能源危機，1987年的黑色星期一，1997年的亞洲金融風暴，2000年的互聯網泡沫，2003年的沙士疫潮，2008年的金融危機，2010年的歐債危機，我們都在等待更大的危機到來，但不管將來有甚麼危機，市場行為只受兩個因素影響，「恐懼」和「貪婪」，沒有別的，不管甚麼人告訴你。
每次危機一堆慌張的投資者想像世界末日就要到來，而所謂的「專業人士」，記者，媒體再給大家一推，恐懼令每個人都感到窒息跟住拋售手上的股票，因為它太「危險了」！但當市場上漲是，大家似乎忘記了所謂的風險，並想加入遊戲，因為每個人似乎都在賺錢，不參加這個派對實在是太愚蠢了，當然「專業人士」，記者和媒體也會好好配合給予他們推一把，有甚麼不好呢？如果這可以把大家都逗樂（尤其是當他們「醉倒」在紙上財貴）。
預測下一次危機是不可能的，如果你能預見未來，你就不需要投資了，幸好智慧的投資者並不需要知道未來就足以致富，其實花費了太多的時間嘗試預測明天是否會下雨是完全浪費時間的，這就是我不明白眾多金融機構推出這些經濟預測報告的原因，雖然內容豐富，但是完全無用，但這令他們得到薪水，世界是這樣運作的，我們需要大量無用的工作，否則隨著世界人口的增長速度，失業率將不太會好看。
無論如何，我預期未來一年會充滿挑戰，美國資產的升幅已經達到一個荒謬的水平，由於5年之久的量化寬鬆政策，我不會花時間來討論美國聯儲局創造了這個危機的細節，我只能說，一個超巨型泡沫是由聯邦政府創造是在自由市場的歷史中是極為罕見，事實上，我想不出在人類歷史上任何例子，但美國做到了，所有自2008年的印鈔，他們已經創造了一個超巨型的泡沫，使數據看起來比較正確，但它對真實經濟的幫助並沒有那麼多（也許有一點點），但大部分的收益都走進資產持有人，公司和已經很富有的人，留下的是一個更高的債務，而且事實上她們無法支撐任何的加息，但他們已經決定這樣做，這種自我膨脹的泡沫最終將會爆裂，我不知道甚麼時候會發生，但我知道它會來到，我已經能感覺到它，所以準備在不久的將來會非常波幅。在這段時間我會擁抱黃金，因為在恐懼的時候，黃金將成為許多投資者的「保障」，而我預期將會有很多的恐懼來到，靜候進一步的消息！
