31st, Jan 2016
Latest fund price: $1.7127 (-0.0562, 3.17%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,447,357.24
Total units: 845,065.4598 units
29th, Feb 2016
Latest fund price: $1.7363 (+0.0236, 1.38%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,457,132.07
Total units: 839,226.7806 units
Hello Investors!
Haha, belated Happy Chinese New Year! yes, I know, I didn’t write anything last month. I have been busy, I have travelled to Japan to attend a University friend’s wedding, visited both Nagoya and Tokyo and the hype still remind! Yada yada, this is my lovely picture with this giant animated robot Gundam, but the main reason I didn’t release a fund report is that I didn’t make any move for couple months now, and I do not want to write report for the sake of writing, I wish my reports have contents. I think I will go with this flow in the future, so some months you will not receive any report from me, but if you have doubts or questions, you can always write to me through the fund email: investment@mechcalvin.com
The market continues to drop, HS index closed at 19111.12 on the 29/2/2016, the index has only gone up 3.29% up since the beginning of this fund back in 4/6/2009, almost 6.5 years ago, my fund still up 70%. Although my stocks holding in Hong Kong also fell a lot inevitably, however not all assets fell, the gold have surged 13% year to date from USD 1100 to USD 1250 per ounce, unfortunately I brought gold too early at around USD 1600 per ounce couple years ago (rookie mistake: buy things when they are cheap but not cheapest), yet I believe the trend will continue when the market become too volatile, everyone want to park their money in gold, I think I have said that in my last fund report.
Japanese Yen also came back, even with negative interest rate, the Japanese Yen become another “parking” asset when people believe there will be storm coming, I believe my yen holding will become profitable within this year, unfortunately I didn’t buy too many Japanese Yen…
My British and American stock also surged, yet once again I didn’t have too many oversea stock holdings unfortunately… -_-"
Lately I have been reading a lot of books about few legendary investors, e.g. Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and newly added Roy Neuberger and John Templeton.
I already used one of the quotes from John Templeton in my last fund report: The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’
This time I will use one of his other quotes: Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
Actually one more: It is time in the market, not timing the market that counts.
Market are consisted of 10% winners and 90% losers, and for most people the only way to prevent loss is not to invest at all, this is when I can show off another Sir Templeton’s quote: The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. *I am such a lame fan boy :)
Most investors (or should I call them speculators) try to time the market, that’s why we always hear confused people keep asking: what should I do now? Should I invest now? Is it the best time to buy now? Should I enter the market now? Should I wait?
Since this is such a common question, that’s why we can see all these “professionals” on TV, radio and internet try to feed these miserable speculators with ambiguous answers, sometimes even worse, with determined answers.
After some many readings and research and practice, I am almost certain no one can time the market correctly, no one can tell what the market will become tomorrow or the day after, by trying to predicting the future people put themselves into a very dangerous situation, a situation that many have tried and failed, try to play god. For what can be certain is that the more time you sit tight, stay in the market, and do nothing most of the time, the market will work for you, stocks will eventually go up if you understand where you put your money into, I am not saying to invest blindly into anything because everything will eventually go up, I am saying you will have a better result to pick few stocks (this is where the magic happens) carefully then do nothing, rather than trying to read what the market is going on, and waste time to figure out what is going on.
In conclusion, doing nothing has been my winning strategy and worked out pretty well, pretty sure I will stay the same in the future.
Regards,
Calvin
p.s. I just wrote 800 words to explain why I did nothing! Brilliant! I am such a potential writer! Haha!
投資者您好！
哈哈，遲來的中國新年快樂！是的，我知道我上個月沒寫任何東西。我一直在忙，上個月我到日本參加一個大學朋友的婚禮，去了名古屋和東京，仍然很興奮！Ｙａｄａ Ｙａｄａ，付上這張我跟這個巨大動畫機器人高達的可愛照片，但我沒有寫基金報告中最主要的原因是，我過去幾個月我甚麼都沒做，我不想為寫報告而寫，我希望我的報告有內容。我想我會在未來這個順其自然，所以可能有一些月份，你不會從我這裡收到報告，但如果你有疑問或問題，可以隨時通過基金郵件寫信給我：investment@mechcalvin.com
市場繼續下跌，恆指在2月29日收報19111.12點，指數比起這個基金在2009年6月4日開始時只升了3.29％，這是6年半前，我的基金仍然升了７０％。雖然我的香港股票也難免下降了不少，但不是所有的資產下跌，金價以年頭計起已飆升了13％，今年迄今從1100美元每盎司升至1250美元，不幸的是我買得太早了，我幾年前時在1600美元左右時就買入了（新手的錯誤：當便宜時就買東西，卻不是最便宜），但我相信這一趨勢將繼續，當市場變得過於不穩定，每個人都希望把錢投在黃金，我想我在上次的基金報告已經說過，。
日元也回來了，甚至負利率出現，當人們相信會有暴風雨就要來了，日元成為另一個“避險”資產，我相信我手持的日元將在今年內實現盈利，可惜我沒買太多日元...
我的美國跟英國股票也大升，再次可惜我沒有買入太多國外股票... -_-"
最近我一直在閱讀了很多關於一些傳奇投資者的書籍，例如彼得林區，·巴菲特，以及新加入的羅伊紐伯格和約翰鄧普頓。
我在上一個基金報告已經引述了一句鄧普頓的名言：投資中最危險的四個字是：「這一次是不同的。」
今次我會用他的另一句報價名言：在最悲觀的時候投資。
再加多一句：不是去補捉最佳入市時機，而是長期堅持不懈地投資的時間才重要。
市場是由10％的勝利者和90％的失敗者組成的，而對大多數人來說，防止損失的唯一辦法是不投資，這時我可以炫耀的另一句鄧普頓爵士的座右銘：避免錯誤的唯一方法是不投資 - 這是所有的最大的錯誤。 *我真是一個很爛的粉絲 :)
大多數投資者（或者我應該叫他們投機者）嘗試補捉市場時機，這就是為什麼我們總是聽到人們一直問：我該怎麼辦？我現在是否應該投資？現在是否購買的最佳時機？我現在應該入市？還是應該等待？
由於這是一個十分普遍的問題，那就是為甚麼我們可以在電視，收音機和互聯網看到聽到這些「專業人士」嚐試用無菱兩可的答案餵養給這些可憐的投機者吃，有時甚至更糟，用堅定的答案。
經過許多閱讀，研究和實踐後，我幾乎可以肯定沒有人能正確補捉入市時機，沒有人能告訴市場明天或後天會發生甚麼事，試圖預測未來的人將自己放在一個非常危險的處境，就是許多人已經嘗試和失敗的處境，就是試圖扮演上帝的角色。對於甚麼可以肯定的是當你花更多時間在市場坐穩，留在市場內，大部分時間甚麼事都不用做，市場就會為你工作，股票最終將會上漲如果你明白你把錢進在甚麼，我我並不是說盲目地投資，因為最終甚麼都會上升，我說你如果仔細挑選幾隻股票（這才是真功夫），然後甚麼也不做，而不是試圖去解讀市場，和浪費時間來搞清楚是怎麼回事，將會有一個更好的結果。
總之，甚麼都不做一直是我的制勝戰略，而且過去一直運作得很好，我很肯定我未來將會保持這個策略不變。
多謝，
卡爾文
附：我剛剛用了1300字來解釋為甚麼我甚麼也沒做！天才！我真是一位有潛質的作家！哈哈!
