MECHCalvin Fund Report Nov, 2017 – 泡沫和狂熱 Bubble and Mania

親愛的投資者，

季節祝福，已經接近2017年底，對於正在學習成為一個父親的我來說2017年是混亂的一年，我還未有時間來計算最新的基金價格，但在新年之後我會寫一個年度報告總結一切。

不過今天我還是可以做一些「懺悔」，2017年有兩個名字在投資界被過分提及，他們是就是騰訊和比特幣。

截至目前，騰訊股價已經升了近一倍，在我寫這篇報告時，騰訊股價已經從$190漲到了$400左右。另外雖然比特幣是一個高度投機性的泡沫，從年頭到現在已經差不多漲了二十倍，價格由1000美元左右差點升到20000美元，但如果我們把時間延伸到比特幣被發明的2009年時，當時每個比特幣的價格只有0.003美元左右，意味著它已經升了660萬倍！這個層次在金融史上從來沒有發生過，在前互聯網時代也是絕對不可能的，當我們談到資產泡沫時，例如1637年的鬱金香狂熱之類是數十倍的升幅。世界無法想像的東西可以漲100倍，更何況600萬倍！許多重份量的投資大師已經多次警告，比特幣就像任何泡沫最終一樣會回歸到它所屬的地方 – 接近零。

無論如何，我對你們有一個好消息，一個壞消息，我會從好消息開始，其實幾年前我用基金的錢買了騰訊和比特幣，而壞消息是 - 買了他們不久之後就賣掉了...

比特幣有點情有可原，回到2013年11月，我已經知道這是一個泡沫，當時「投資」（更像投機）500美元到加密貨幣，起初我沒有買比特幣，而是買了另一種當時流行的加密貨幣叫做萊特幣，那些相信加密貨幣的人說比特幣就像黃金，而​​萊特幣就像白銀一樣，那時候比特幣已到達100美元左右，我認為這個價格太高了，所以我投資了大約200個萊特幣（每個大概2美元）。在2013年，比特幣經歷了第一次狂熱，比特幣價格從80美元上漲到1000美元以上，隨著加密貨幣流行，我的萊特幣也在10天內迅速從2美元跳到了55美元，我不知道升勢會維持多久，所以我沒有出售它，有一天我睡醒，泡沫破裂了，比特幣價格崩潰，每個人都在市場拋棄他們的加密貨幣，比特幣價格在一個月內下降了90％，我的萊特幣跟隨自由下跌，幸運的是我在11美元左右退出，並獲得5倍的利潤。過山車般的極端波動性另我對加密貨幣失去了興趣，所以我在120美元左右轉了去比特幣，然後把它們都賣掉了，我當時認為狂熱已經結束了。我完全錯了，如果我保留了它們，今天500美元就會變成8萬美元。

我說這是可以原諒，因為我沒有玩這個音樂椅的遊戲，我無法為比特幣估值，也無法預測它的價格，而且，這一切都感覺像贏彩票，而不是在風險計算後進行投資。其實我研究了很多關於加密貨幣的技術和經濟理論來做出這樣的結論（我從來不會根據自己的感受做決定），不管價格如何瘋狂，塊鏈技術將會改變世界，但是我不想說太多令你感到沉悶的理論，所以我只是告訴你們這個故事。如果可以把這麼多錢加進基金實在是不錯的，但這是一場危險的遊戲，所以就是這樣...

反之騰訊有點不可原諒，2014年9月份在每股$125左右買了一些它的股票，幾個月後我把它們賣了，因為我覺得它被高估了，即使今天騰訊的總市值幾乎和面書一樣，收益只有臉書的一半，但它至少是一家公司，我可以花時間做一些估價，可是我沒有。如果我不賣它，今天會有相當不錯的利潤。

正如牛頓曾經說過的:「我可以計算天體的運動，卻算不出人性的瘋狂。」如果市場上有甚麼熱手的東西，它只會變得越來越熱，直到達到一個荒謬的地步。我們可能錯過了一些機會，但是我的「安全」戰略在過去避免了許多損失，我將來有機會會解釋更多。

無論如何，就算無視我所做的「過錯」，基金的成績其實不壞，基金所持有的基金和股票在香港市場表現相當不錯，我覺得可能已經達到每單位$2，但不要拿我的話作準，直到我在聖誕節假期時完成所有沉悶的數學計算。

祝聖誕快樂，新年快樂

卡爾文

Dear Investors,

Season's Greetings, it is near the end of 2017, 2017 was a mess for me learning to be a father, I haven’t got time to calculate the latest fund price yet, but I will write an annual report to sum up everything after the new year.

However I still have something to “confess” today, in 2017 two names are overly mention in investment world, they are tencent and bitcoin.

Tencent is overvalued stock has almost doubled year to date, it’s stock price has risen from $190 to around $400 as we speak. While bitcoin is a highly speculative bubble that has almost twenty folded year to date, from around $1000 to just below $20000, but if we extend the timespan back to 2009 when it was first invented, it was only around $0.003 per bitcoin, meaning its price has increased 6.6 million times! This never happens in the history of finance and definitely not possible in pre-internet age, when we speak of an asset bubble, we are talking about ten folded in couple years such as the tulip mania back in 1637. The world could not imagine something can rise 100 times, let alone 6 million times! Many respectful investors have warned multiple times that bitcoin was like any bubble it will go back to where it belongs – close to zero.

Anyway, I have one good news and one bad news for you guys, I will start with good news, I have bought both tencent and bitcoin with the fund money couple years ago, and the bad news is – I have sold them not long after I bought them...

Bitcoin was a bit forgivable because I knew it is a bubble from day one, back in Nov, 2013, I have “invested” (more like speculate) USD500 into cryptocurrency, at first I didn’t buy bitcoin, I have bought another popular cryptocurrency at that time called litecoin, those who believe in cryptocurrency said bitcoin is like gold while litecoin is like silver, at that time bitcoin is around USD$100 and I thought the price is too high for my little speculative money. I have invested around 200 litecoins (around $2 each). Back in 2013, bitcoin experienced its first mania, bitcoin price increased from $80 to over $1000, hopping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, my litecoins also quickly jumped from $2 to $55 in less than 10 days, I didn’t know how long I need to wait so I didn’t sell it, one day after I woke up, the bubble burst, the bitcoin price crashed and everyone just dumping their coins, bitcoin price dropped 90% within a month and my litecoin follow the free falling, luckily I managed to exit around $11 and made 5 times profit. After the roller coaster I have lost interested due to its extreme volatile nature, I switched to bitcoin when it was around $120 then sold them all, and I suspect the mania is over. I was so wrong, if I have kept them, the USD 500 would have become USD 80000 today.

I said it was forgivable because I didn’t play the music chair game, I could not value bitcoin, I could not predict its price and moreover, it all felt like winning a lottery rather than making an investment after some risk calculation. Well, there are a lot of technical and economic theories regarding to cryptocurrency I have studied to make such conclusion (I never make a decision based on my feelings), the block chain technology is going to change the world regardless of the craziness of its price, however I don’t want to bored you to death so I just told you the story. It would have been nice to added so much more money into the fund however it was a dangerous game to play, so that’s that…

Tencent was a bit unforgivable, I bought some of their stock back in Sept, 2014 around $125 per shares, but later I sold them because I felt it was overvalued, even today Tencent’s total market capital is almost same as facebook, its earning is only half of facebook, but at least it is a company I can spend time to do some valuation, yet I didn’t. Again if I didn’t sell it, it will have a pretty nice profit today.

As Isaac Newton once said, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” If something is hot on the market, it tends to go hotter and hotter until it reached a ridiculous point. We might have missed some opportunity, but my “play safe” strategy has avoided many losses and I will explain more in the future.

Anyway, neglect what I have “missed”, the fund is not doing bad at all, the fund and stocks I hold perform quite well along with the HK market, but I have a feeling it has already reached $2 per unit due to the HK market’s performance, don’t take my word for it yet until I finish all the boring math during the Christmas holiday.

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2017 – My best "Investment" 我的最佳「投資」

Mar Fund Price/ 3月基金價格: $1.8856

Apr Fund Price/ 4月基金價格: $1.9031

May Fund Price/ 5月基金價格: $1.9255

Jun (Latest) Fund Price/ 6月(最新)基金價格: $1.9052

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,626,685.75

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

親愛的投資者，

好久不見！自上次報告以來已經有一段時間了；你有想過我一直在做甚麼嗎？是否拿了你的錢然後走了？哈哈

我的最後一份報告是在3月份寫的，但是當我要寫下一個報告時，我最好的「投資」已經在4月2日到了世界 - 我的兒子智仁　:)

毫無疑問，我成為一個更快樂和更繁忙的人，很多事情需要學習，更不用說無數不眠之夜，100天後，我終於可以回到正軌，所以我決定寫一個關於這個基金的短更新。

我花了很多時間讓人（在我的基金報告和YouTube視頻）中了解「投資」的真正定義，人們基於自己的想像力或一廂情願的想法將它與投機和許多其他無關的事物混為一談。我可以再次明確定義，「投資」的定義是獲得具有價值的「資產」，知道他們會升值。在獲得的過程中，你必須犧牲其他的東西，例如時間和金錢，這就是為什麼巴菲特稱投資的能力也是「延緩滿足的能力」。他當然是在談論金錢，但它完全描繪了生活中的其他方面。有一些實驗研究孩子的行為如何影響他們的未來，其中一個測試將他們放在房間裡，給予每個人一粒糖果，並告訴他們，如果他們不吃那粒糖果，5分鐘後他們將被給予另一粒。我們都知道會發生怎麼事，８成的孩子不能忍受誘惑，吃那粒糖果。這個實驗告訴我們延遲滿足的能力在人類是罕見的，我們的人性都想立即得到滿足。

大多數人投資不成功，不是因為他們不夠聰明，是因為他們沒有耐心等待，同樣越來越少的人願意有孩子（特別是在已發展國家），是因為他們不希望孩子「摧毀他們的生活方式」或更好的藉口 - 我不想讓他們「受苦」，因為老實講，沒有人知道這些「投資」會如何變成如何，所以他們寧願不冒險，因為犧牲是明確的，但獎勵卻不是。

當朋友問我是否有計劃生孩子時，我總是說我從來沒有想過要控制結果，就像我沒有「計劃」購買我的第一隻股票，也許我對我的未來有點樂觀，但不代表我不需要面對困難的時期，過去很難，現在很難，將來也一定很難，但一旦你了解「投資」的價值，你就會有勇氣越過它。作為回報，我兒子的「升值」不是為了給我更多的錢（我已經有用錢的投資來解決我的錢問題），而是令他在這個世界成為一個有價值和愛的人。 我認為很多人不明白「你種的是甚麼，收的也會是甚麼」，人們種下檸檬的種子，卻希望獲得蘋果，他們用錢「投資」在需要愛的人 (家庭)，反之他們將感情給予只有金錢相關的東西上（工作）。

回到投資，每個人都可以看到香港股市正在上漲，人們會問我現在應該買嗎？我的回答總是這個問題在2-3年前就應該問了，股市已經不再便宜了，其實我甚至賣了一些資產來鎖定過去2-3年的利潤，希望今年能打破2元的紀錄，如果今年沒有，最終都是會打破的

最好的祝福，

卡爾文

Dear Investors,

Long time no see! It has been awhile since my last report; have you wondering what I have been doing? Have I taken your money and run away? Haha

My last report was written in Mar, however when I am about to write the next one, my best “investment” has come to the world on the 2nd of April – My son Luke :)

No doubt I have become a happier and busier man, a lot of things need to learn, not to mention countless sleepless nights, after 100 days I can finally get back on track, so I decide to write a quick update about this fund for you guys.

I have spent a lot of time to let people (in my fund reports and youtube videos) understand the true definition of “investment”, people confuse it with speculation and many other unrelated things base on their own imagination or wishful thinking. I can make the definition to be clear one more time, the definition of “investment” is obtain and “assets” that has value, knowing it will appreciate. In the process of obtain, you have to sacrifice other things, e.g. time & money, that’s why Warren Buffett also called the ability of invest as “the ability to delay gratification”. Of course he is talking about money, but it is perfectly described other areas in life. There were experiments to research how kids behavior will affect their future path, one of the tests are put them in the room and give each of them a candy, and tell them if they do not eat that candy, they will be given another one 5 mins later. We all knows how it goes, 80% of the kids cannot bear the temptation and eat that candy. This experiment tells us the ability to delay gratification is rare in human, our nature all want to be satisfied immediately.

Most of the people fail in investment not because they are not smart enough, it is because they do not have the patient to wait, similarly less and less people willing to have kids (esp. in developed countries) are because they do not wish children to “destroy their lifestyle” or with better reason – I don’t want them to “suffer”, because let’s face it, no one knows how these “investment” will turn out so they rather not to take the risk, it is true the sacrifice are definite, but the rewards are not.

When my friends asked me was it planned to have children, I always say I never thought of to control the outcome, just like I didn’t “plan” to buy my first stock, maybe I am a bit optimistic about my future, not that I do not need to face difficult time, it was difficult, it is difficult now and it will be difficult in the future, but once you acknowledge the value in the “investment”, you will have the courage to get through it. In return, the “appreciation” of my son is NOT to give me back more money (I already have money investment to solve my money problem), but to make him become a valuable man and love in this world. I think a lot of people do not understand “you get what you give”, people plant lemon seeds and expects to get apple, and they “invest” in love and expect money in return or vice versa, so they treat people that require love with money (family), or give their love to things that are money related (career).

Back to the investment, everyone can see HK stock is going towards an upward trend, people ask me should they buy now? My answer always be you should have asked 2-3 years ago, the stock markets aren’t cheap anymore today, it can go up as well as down, in fact I have sold some of the assets to lock the profits in the last 2-3 years, I hope we can break the $2 mark this year (we are so close), if not this year, eventually it will.

Best regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2017 – Did you know? 你知道嗎?

Jan Fund Price/ 一月基金價格: $1.8461
Feb (Latest) Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8923
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,615,621.05
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

CHINNEY INV  建業實業（00216.HK）

Dear Investors,

Welcome to the year of the rooster, the year has a pretty neat start for me, looks like we will be two folded soon, last time we were this close was on the May, 2015, the hype train carried my fund to $1.9799, but the hype was very short lived (false bull). Last month thanks to a stock CHINNEY INV (00216.HK), the fund had a significant increase because its mother company has sold a real estate investment worth 3.1 billion, the estimated profit will be 2.2 billion! (I have no idea how to they can take 70% of the profit), this company will be shared at least 700 million of profit when the market value of the whole company was only around 900 million before the news was announced, the price immediately jumped from $1.6 per shares to $2.2 and now is at $2.8, I believe when the company reach its true value, the fair price should be around $4-5 per shares. Well, what can I say except I felt like hitting another jackpot? This is totally unexpected, I have bought it for more than a year, it has dropped more than 30% at one point, but this is investment, you got to have a very strong believe in your analysis, and then be extreme patient. I think a lot of people fail either they are not logical or they are not patient. So this letter is some “did you know” facts for you. Did you know?

1. 30% of people in Hong Kong is actively involved in stock market, one of highest population % involve in stock investment cities in the world
2. The Hang Seng Index has increased 756% from 1987-2016 (from 2568 points to 22000 points)
3. Over 80% of the stock “investors” end up losing money (you wonder why how is it possible when the market has increased 7 times, all they need to do is do nothing but wait)
4. Most of the “investors” have no idea what company they are investing in except the names and stock numbers
5. Hang Seng Index has an average 25% simple annual return (or 7.42% compound annual return) in the last 30 years
6. The highest % gain happened in 1993 (115.67%), 1999 (68.8%) and 2009 (52.02%)
7. If you skipped year 1993 only in the last 30 years, your 756% gain is reduce to 508.36%; if you skipped year 1999, your gain is reduced to 487.43%; if you skipped year 2009, your gain is reduced to 465.18%; if you skipped all 3 years only, you are now sitting at a -52.26% loss.

I guess this explain a lot why people is not doing so well in stock, firstly they try to time the market, they make (or listen to so-called “professional”) to prediction how the market will perform, hoping to “buy low sell high”. The fact is that no one has the crystal ball to predict anything, if so my career as an insurance agent is a dead end. Secondly they only want to participate in investment when everyone else does, have you wondered why 1993, 1999, 2009 are the years that achieved highest gain? 

Back in 1993, Tsing Tao Beer is listed in HK, everyone got on the hyped train that the capital from China is going to flood Hong Kong, the index dropped 31% the year after; in 1999 it was the internet bubble, any company added a “.com” will have their share price ten folded in the next couple months, did it make sense? Apparently many idiots think so. The indexed dropped 50% in the next 3 years. And 2009 is after the financial crisis when USA decided to save the major banks, but the actual drive was back in 2006-2007, where 86% gain was achieved in 2 years before the crisis, everyone knows what happened in 2008. 

I think you can do very well if you entered the market correctly before everyone else, but can you? I think the truth is that a lot of people get on board in the middle or even at the end of the rise, they are sitting on 5-7% of profit and refuse to leave, than experience a 60-70% drop later on. This behavior keep repeating because human is like that, drive by greed and fear, they just unable to sit down and wait patiently, they want to know what the next trend in the next 2 months, 2 weeks even 2 days! I hope this can bring some insight to you

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. Chinney Inv is stock introduced by an Hong Kong investment bloggers, so I must give him some credit for this amazing discovery, you can check out his blog through this link also: http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

親愛的投資者，

歡迎來到雞年，這一年我有一個相當不錯的開始，看來我們應該很快到達雙倍回報，上次我們這樣接近是在2015年5月，炒作的風氣將我的基金推到$1.9799，但炒作是非常短暫的（假牛市）。上個月由於股票建業實業（00216.HK），基金有了顯著的升幅，因為其母公司已經出售了價值31億的房地產投資，預計利潤將是22億！ （我不知道他們如何能拿到70％的利潤），這家公司將共享至少7億的利潤，當消息宣布之前，整間公司的市價只有大約9億左右，價格立即從每股$1.6跳升至$2.2，現在為$2.8，我相信當公司達到其真實價值時，公平價格應該在每股$4-5左右。那麼，除了我覺得中了另一個大獎外我還能說什麼？這是完全出乎意料的，我買了一年多，它一度跌了30％以上，但這就是投資，你必須有一個非常堅定的分析，然後是極端的耐性。我認為很多人失敗了，不是他們不合邏輯，就是沒有耐性。所以這封信會給你講一些“你知道嗎”的事實。你知道嗎？

1. 香港有30％的人積極參與股票市場，是世界上股票投資率最高的城市中之一
2. 恆生指數由1987年至2016增加756％ （從2568點升至22000點）
3. 超過80％的股票「投資者」輸錢收場（你奇怪這有甚麼可能當市場上升了7倍，他們需要做的就是甚麼都不做, 除了等待）
4. 大多數「投資者」不知道他們投資的公司，除了名稱和股票號碼
5. 恆生指數在過去30年的年收益率平均為25％（或年復合年增長率為7.42％）
6. 最高百分比升幅發生在1993年（115.67％），1999年（68.8％）和2009年（52.02％）
7. 如果你在過去30年中跳過1993年，你的756%的收益減少到508.36%；如果你跳過1999年，你的收益減少到487.43%；如果你跳過2009年，你的收益減少到465.18%；如果你跳過這3年，你現在得到-52.26％的損失。

我想這解釋了為甚麼人們總是輸，首先，他們試圖補捉市場，他們（或聽所謂的「專業人士」）預測市場的表現，希望「低買高賣」。事實是，沒有人有水晶球預測任何東西，如果是這樣，我作為保險代理人的職業就沒有前途了。其次，他們只想在所有其他人都參與投資時才參與，你想知道為什麼1993年，1999年，2009年是最高增長的年份？

1993年青島啤酒在香港上市，每個都希望分一杯羹，中國的資金都要湧入香港，恆生指數第2年跌了31%；1999年是互聯網泡沫，任何公司增加了一個“.com”，其股價將在未來幾個月上升１０倍，這樣合常理嗎？顯然很多白痴認為合理。指數在未來3年下降50％。2009年是金融危機後，美國決定拯救主要銀行，但實際驅動力應該回到2006 - 2007年，在危機發生前兩年實現了86％的增長，之後大家都知到2008年發生甚麼事了。

我想如果你在其他人之前正確進入市場你可以做得很好，但你能嗎？我認為事實是，很多人在中間或甚至結束時上升才加入，他們得到利潤的5-7％後拒絕離開，之後就要經歷60-70%的跌幅。這種行為不斷重複，因為人類是這樣，被貪婪和恐懼所驅動，他們就是無法坐下來耐心等待，他們想知道未來2個月，2週甚至2天後的趨勢！我希望這可以帶給你一些洞察。

問候，

卡爾文

p.s. 建業實業是由一位香港投資博客作者介紹的，所以我必須將這個驚人的發現歸功於他，你可以通過這個鏈接查看他的博客：http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

Hang Seng Index 1987-2016

Year	Beginning Price	Ending Price	Gain or Loss	Percent Gain or Loss
1987	2568.3	2302.8	-265.5	-10.34%
1988	2302.8	2687.4	384.6	16.70%
1989	2687.4	2836.6	149.2	5.55%
1990	2836.6	3024	187.4	6.61%
1991	3024	4297.3	1273.3	42.11%
1992	4297.3	5512.4	1215.1	28.28%
1993	5512.4	11888.4	6376	115.67%
1994	11888.4	8191	-3697.4	-31.10%
1995	8191	10073.4	1882.4	22.98%
1996	10073.4	13451.5	3378.1	33.53%
1997	13451.5	10722.8	-2728.7	-20.29%
1998	10722.8	10048.58	-674.22	-6.29%
1999	10048.58	16962.1	6913.52	68.80%
2000	16962.1	15095.53	-1866.57	-11.00%
2001	15095.53	11397.21	-3698.32	-24.50%
2002	11397.21	9321.29	-2075.92	-18.21%
2003	9321.29	12575.94	3254.65	34.92%
2004	12575.94	14230.14	1654.2	13.15%
2005	14230.14	14876.43	646.29	4.54%
2006	14876.43	19964.72	5088.29	34.20%
2007	19964.72	27812.65	7847.93	39.31%
2008	27812.65	14387.48	-13425.17	-48.27%
2009	14387.48	21872.5	7485.02	52.02%
2010	21872.5	23035.45	1162.95	5.32%
2011	23035.45	18434.39	-4601.06	-19.97%
2012	18434.39	22656.92	4222.53	22.91%
2013	22656.92	23306.39	649.47	2.87%
2014	23306.39	23605.04	298.65	1.28%
2015	23605.04	21914.4	-1690.64	-7.16%
2016	21914.4	22000.56	86.16	0.39%

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
Subscribe to Information登記接收資訊: https://goo.gl/forms/ihUd6Fu0eC8CNFc22
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Youtube (New): http://youtube.com/mechcalvinfund
Youtube (Legacy): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB
Email: investment@mechcalvin.com

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2016 – What a year… 這一年真的是…

Nov Fund Price/ 十一月基金價格: $1.8618

Latest Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8126

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,589,655.96

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Statistic 統計數據

*Collect and Withdraw are the amount in and out from investors
**Income and Expense represent done deals of this fund (brought and sold assets)

*流入及流出是指投資者的資金

**收入及支出指基金已完成的交易 (已買入及賣出資產)

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year, finally I have finished all the statistic work and can sit down to write something. As title described, 2016 was full of surprises and disappointments. 

Let’s start with this fund, the fund price has increased from 1.7689 to 1.8126 (2.47%) only this year, while the HS index has increased 86.16 points (0.39%) only (from 21949.4 to 22000.56), the assets didn’t perform as I expected, for example I have taken 56k profit from stocks in 2014, a massive 330k in 2015, but in 2016, I have only made 16k, which is even lower than my monthly wage, haha. Of course I am talking about sold stocks, but even consider unsold assets, they didn’t perform well, most of the incomes (2.47%) are from stocks dividends and interest from loans, the price of the stocks and funds are falling apart.

To save some face, I guess I can give credit to my “luck” that I sold all foreign currencies in the beginning of the year, esp. CNY, GBP and EUR, and JPY in the middle of the year. When I say luck I really mean it, the reason I sold my GBP and EUR not because I can “foreseen” the outcome of BREXIT, in fact I didn’t feel strongly about the referendum, nor my crystal ball told me the great falling of CNY and uprising USD, I sold GBP and EUR mainly because I need to convert those currencies to buy stocks, most of these money are left from my honeymoon in 2015, and my Japan trip for a friend’s wedding in Feb have made me buy more Yen at a very cheap rate, after the trip I didn’t want to keep them so I sold all of them at a higher rate and earned a few bucks. I did have a strong feeling to sell all the RMB, because let’s face it, nothing can go up and up for many years, it is funny to see how the Chinese government say they have little room to go down. One thing I have learnt over the years in investment is that, you don’t need to worry about a market, until the government tells you not to worry about it.

Anyway there were also some good surprises in 2016, e.g. the gold and few good stocks picks, the stocks HK:853 and HK:8216 have 50% and 30% profit, I have sold both of them, yet their % in the portfolio is so little it didn’t make a huge contribution to the overall performance. The stocks I heavily invested barely moved, e.g. HK: 1431 from $0.475 to $0.51 (7%), even though another stock HK:1373 (aka Japan Home in HK) has risen from $1.14 to $1.62 (+30%), it still hasn’t reached my average purchasing price, so I guess I have to be more patient.

Again I have to emphasis we are unable to predict the precise timing of the rise and fall, what I am doing to keep buying in good assets that will eventually produce a good outcome, otherwise we are doing speculation rather than investment. What investment all about is to keep buying good assets, and the definition of good assets IS NOT that will give you immediately rise of its price in a very short period, the definition of a good asset is to generate stable cash inflow to the company (and dividend to the shareholders), it may perform poorly in price in short run, but in long term it will definitely have a significant rise in stock price also. 

You can see from the statistic I practice what I preach, the money I spend on buy assets are much more than money I got from selling (in 2016 I have cashed out 190k but have spent 327k), some might ask, where the extra money comes from to support you to spend more? It is the magic of investment, the cash (dividend, interest, new investors) keep generating from your assets (stocks, funds, loans) should reach an equilibrium that you do not need to put in new money anymore, meaning the cash generating from the assets you own will become self-sustain, start rolling like a snowball and eventually get bigger and bigger by itself (That is why the name of the biography of Warren Buffett is called snowball). Even said that, I do hope 2017 will have a better outcome.

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

新年快樂，我終於完成了所有的統計工作，可以坐下來寫點東西。如標題所言，2016年充滿驚愕及失望。

讓我們從這個基金開始講起，今年基金價格只從1.7689增加到1.8126（2.47％），而HS指數只增加了86.16點（0.39％）（從21949.4點到22000.56點），資產沒有按我預期表現，例如我在2014年只從股票已經套現了5萬6千的利潤，在2015年大規模增加至33萬，但在2016年只有一萬六，甚至比我的月工資還低，哈哈。當然我只是指已經賣出的股票，但即使考慮未售出的資產，他們的表現都不佳，大部分收入（2.47％）來自股票股息和貸款利息，股票和基金的價格簡直是支離破碎。

為了挽回一些面子，我想我可以歸功於我的“運氣”，我在年初賣出了所有外幣，尤其是人民幣，英鎊和歐元，在年中就賣出了日元。當我說運氣我是認真的，我賣出英鎊和歐元的原因不是因為我可以「預見」英國脫歐的結果，實際上我對公投沒有強烈的感覺，也沒有水晶球告訴我人民幣會大跌及美元的上升，我賣英鎊和歐元主要是因為我需要轉換這些貨幣買股票，這些錢大部分是我在2015年的蜜月留下來的，而我在2月因要到日本參加朋友婚禮令我可以在一個非常便宜的價格購買更多日元，在旅行後我不想留下他們，所以在更高的匯率全部賣走了而賺了幾塊錢。但我對人民幣確實有一個強烈的感覺而賣走，因為沒有甚麼可以上升這麼多年，中國政府他們沒有空間下降是一件很好笑的事。多年來我在投資中學到的一件事就是，你跟本不需要擔心一個市場，直到政府告訴你不要擔心。

無論如何，2016年還是有一些好的驚喜，例如黃金和少數好股票，股票HK：853和HK：8216有50％和30％的利潤，我已經賣了他們，但他們的投資組合中的百份比是如此的少，沒有對整體表現做出巨大貢獻。我大舉投資的股票幾乎沒有動過，例如 HK：1431從0.475至0.51（7％），儘管另一隻股票HK: 1373從$1.14上升至$1.62（+ 30％），但仍未達到我的平均買入價，所以我想我必須更加耐心。

我要再次強調，我們不能精確預測上升和下跌的時間，我做的只是保持購買良好的資產，最終將會產生一個好的結果，否則我們做的只是投機，而不是投資。投資就是繼續購買良好的資產，而優質資產的定義不會給你很短的時間之內價格暴漲，優質資產的定義是能夠產生穩定的現金流入公司（和股東分紅），短期內價格可能表現不佳，但從長期來看，股價也肯定會大幅上漲。

你可以從統計數據中看到我身體力行，我花在購買資產的錢遠高於我從賣出資產的錢（在2016年我現套了19萬，但花了32萬），有些人可能會問，在那裡額外的錢來自支持你花更多的錢？這就是投資的魔力，從你的資產（股票，基金，貸款）產生的現金（股息，利息，新投資者資金）最終應該會達到一個平均，你不需要再投入新的錢，意味著你擁有的資產產生的現金可以自我維持，開始像一個雪球滾動，最終自身變得愈來愈大（這就是為巴菲特的傳記的書名叫雪球）. 盡管是這樣說，我都希望2017年會有更好的結果。

問候，

卡爾文

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
Subscribe to Information登記接收資訊: https://goo.gl/forms/ihUd6Fu0eC8CNFc22
Facebook: http://facebook.com/mechcalvinfund
Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Youtube (New): http://youtube.com/mechcalvinfund
Youtube (Legacy): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB
Email: investment@mechcalvin.com