MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2017 – Did you know? 你知道嗎?

Jan Fund Price/ 一月基金價格: $1.8461
Feb (Latest) Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8923
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,615,621.05
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

CHINNEY INV  建業實業（00216.HK）

Dear Investors,

Welcome to the year of the rooster, the year has a pretty neat start for me, looks like we will be two folded soon, last time we were this close was on the May, 2015, the hype train carried my fund to $1.9799, but the hype was very short lived (false bull). Last month thanks to a stock CHINNEY INV (00216.HK), the fund had a significant increase because its mother company has sold a real estate investment worth 3.1 billion, the estimated profit will be 2.2 billion! (I have no idea how to they can take 70% of the profit), this company will be shared at least 700 million of profit when the market value of the whole company was only around 900 million before the news was announced, the price immediately jumped from $1.6 per shares to $2.2 and now is at $2.8, I believe when the company reach its true value, the fair price should be around $4-5 per shares. Well, what can I say except I felt like hitting another jackpot? This is totally unexpected, I have bought it for more than a year, it has dropped more than 30% at one point, but this is investment, you got to have a very strong believe in your analysis, and then be extreme patient. I think a lot of people fail either they are not logical or they are not patient. So this letter is some “did you know” facts for you. Did you know?

1. 30% of people in Hong Kong is actively involved in stock market, one of highest population % involve in stock investment cities in the world
2. The Hang Seng Index has increased 756% from 1987-2016 (from 2568 points to 22000 points)
3. Over 80% of the stock “investors” end up losing money (you wonder why how is it possible when the market has increased 7 times, all they need to do is do nothing but wait)
4. Most of the “investors” have no idea what company they are investing in except the names and stock numbers
5. Hang Seng Index has an average 25% simple annual return (or 7.42% compound annual return) in the last 30 years
6. The highest % gain happened in 1993 (115.67%), 1999 (68.8%) and 2009 (52.02%)
7. If you skipped year 1993 only in the last 30 years, your 756% gain is reduce to 508.36%; if you skipped year 1999, your gain is reduced to 487.43%; if you skipped year 2009, your gain is reduced to 465.18%; if you skipped all 3 years only, you are now sitting at a -52.26% loss.

I guess this explain a lot why people is not doing so well in stock, firstly they try to time the market, they make (or listen to so-called “professional”) to prediction how the market will perform, hoping to “buy low sell high”. The fact is that no one has the crystal ball to predict anything, if so my career as an insurance agent is a dead end. Secondly they only want to participate in investment when everyone else does, have you wondered why 1993, 1999, 2009 are the years that achieved highest gain? 

Back in 1993, Tsing Tao Beer is listed in HK, everyone got on the hyped train that the capital from China is going to flood Hong Kong, the index dropped 31% the year after; in 1999 it was the internet bubble, any company added a “.com” will have their share price ten folded in the next couple months, did it make sense? Apparently many idiots think so. The indexed dropped 50% in the next 3 years. And 2009 is after the financial crisis when USA decided to save the major banks, but the actual drive was back in 2006-2007, where 86% gain was achieved in 2 years before the crisis, everyone knows what happened in 2008. 

I think you can do very well if you entered the market correctly before everyone else, but can you? I think the truth is that a lot of people get on board in the middle or even at the end of the rise, they are sitting on 5-7% of profit and refuse to leave, than experience a 60-70% drop later on. This behavior keep repeating because human is like that, drive by greed and fear, they just unable to sit down and wait patiently, they want to know what the next trend in the next 2 months, 2 weeks even 2 days! I hope this can bring some insight to you

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. Chinney Inv is stock introduced by an Hong Kong investment bloggers, so I must give him some credit for this amazing discovery, you can check out his blog through this link also: http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

親愛的投資者，

歡迎來到雞年，這一年我有一個相當不錯的開始，看來我們應該很快到達雙倍回報，上次我們這樣接近是在2015年5月，炒作的風氣將我的基金推到$1.9799，但炒作是非常短暫的（假牛市）。上個月由於股票建業實業（00216.HK），基金有了顯著的升幅，因為其母公司已經出售了價值31億的房地產投資，預計利潤將是22億！ （我不知道他們如何能拿到70％的利潤），這家公司將共享至少7億的利潤，當消息宣布之前，整間公司的市價只有大約9億左右，價格立即從每股$1.6跳升至$2.2，現在為$2.8，我相信當公司達到其真實價值時，公平價格應該在每股$4-5左右。那麼，除了我覺得中了另一個大獎外我還能說什麼？這是完全出乎意料的，我買了一年多，它一度跌了30％以上，但這就是投資，你必須有一個非常堅定的分析，然後是極端的耐性。我認為很多人失敗了，不是他們不合邏輯，就是沒有耐性。所以這封信會給你講一些“你知道嗎”的事實。你知道嗎？

1. 香港有30％的人積極參與股票市場，是世界上股票投資率最高的城市中之一
2. 恆生指數由1987年至2016增加756％ （從2568點升至22000點）
3. 超過80％的股票「投資者」輸錢收場（你奇怪這有甚麼可能當市場上升了7倍，他們需要做的就是甚麼都不做, 除了等待）
4. 大多數「投資者」不知道他們投資的公司，除了名稱和股票號碼
5. 恆生指數在過去30年的年收益率平均為25％（或年復合年增長率為7.42％）
6. 最高百分比升幅發生在1993年（115.67％），1999年（68.8％）和2009年（52.02％）
7. 如果你在過去30年中跳過1993年，你的756%的收益減少到508.36%；如果你跳過1999年，你的收益減少到487.43%；如果你跳過2009年，你的收益減少到465.18%；如果你跳過這3年，你現在得到-52.26％的損失。

我想這解釋了為甚麼人們總是輸，首先，他們試圖補捉市場，他們（或聽所謂的「專業人士」）預測市場的表現，希望「低買高賣」。事實是，沒有人有水晶球預測任何東西，如果是這樣，我作為保險代理人的職業就沒有前途了。其次，他們只想在所有其他人都參與投資時才參與，你想知道為什麼1993年，1999年，2009年是最高增長的年份？

1993年青島啤酒在香港上市，每個都希望分一杯羹，中國的資金都要湧入香港，恆生指數第2年跌了31%；1999年是互聯網泡沫，任何公司增加了一個“.com”，其股價將在未來幾個月上升１０倍，這樣合常理嗎？顯然很多白痴認為合理。指數在未來3年下降50％。2009年是金融危機後，美國決定拯救主要銀行，但實際驅動力應該回到2006 - 2007年，在危機發生前兩年實現了86％的增長，之後大家都知到2008年發生甚麼事了。

我想如果你在其他人之前正確進入市場你可以做得很好，但你能嗎？我認為事實是，很多人在中間或甚至結束時上升才加入，他們得到利潤的5-7％後拒絕離開，之後就要經歷60-70%的跌幅。這種行為不斷重複，因為人類是這樣，被貪婪和恐懼所驅動，他們就是無法坐下來耐心等待，他們想知道未來2個月，2週甚至2天後的趨勢！我希望這可以帶給你一些洞察。

問候，

卡爾文

p.s. 建業實業是由一位香港投資博客作者介紹的，所以我必須將這個驚人的發現歸功於他，你可以通過這個鏈接查看他的博客：http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

Hang Seng Index 1987-2016

Year	Beginning Price	Ending Price	Gain or Loss	Percent Gain or Loss
1987	2568.3	2302.8	-265.5	-10.34%
1988	2302.8	2687.4	384.6	16.70%
1989	2687.4	2836.6	149.2	5.55%
1990	2836.6	3024	187.4	6.61%
1991	3024	4297.3	1273.3	42.11%
1992	4297.3	5512.4	1215.1	28.28%
1993	5512.4	11888.4	6376	115.67%
1994	11888.4	8191	-3697.4	-31.10%
1995	8191	10073.4	1882.4	22.98%
1996	10073.4	13451.5	3378.1	33.53%
1997	13451.5	10722.8	-2728.7	-20.29%
1998	10722.8	10048.58	-674.22	-6.29%
1999	10048.58	16962.1	6913.52	68.80%
2000	16962.1	15095.53	-1866.57	-11.00%
2001	15095.53	11397.21	-3698.32	-24.50%
2002	11397.21	9321.29	-2075.92	-18.21%
2003	9321.29	12575.94	3254.65	34.92%
2004	12575.94	14230.14	1654.2	13.15%
2005	14230.14	14876.43	646.29	4.54%
2006	14876.43	19964.72	5088.29	34.20%
2007	19964.72	27812.65	7847.93	39.31%
2008	27812.65	14387.48	-13425.17	-48.27%
2009	14387.48	21872.5	7485.02	52.02%
2010	21872.5	23035.45	1162.95	5.32%
2011	23035.45	18434.39	-4601.06	-19.97%
2012	18434.39	22656.92	4222.53	22.91%
2013	22656.92	23306.39	649.47	2.87%
2014	23306.39	23605.04	298.65	1.28%
2015	23605.04	21914.4	-1690.64	-7.16%
2016	21914.4	22000.56	86.16	0.39%

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
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