Aug Fund Price/8月基金價格: $1.9431
Sept Fund Price/ 9月基金價格: $1.9641
Oct Fund Price/ 10月基金價格: $1.9718
Nov Fund Price/ 11月基金價格: $1.9518
Dec (Latest) Fund Price/ 12月(最新)基金價格: $1.9685
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,680,705.47
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units
Fund vs Index Annual Performance
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,680,705.47
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units
Fund vs Index Annual Performance
「投資多元化是無知的保護傘。如果你知道自己在做什麼，這是沒有意義的。」- 巴菲特
親愛的投資者，
我不確定哪個工作讓我更加想睡，計算基金價格還是寫這份年報，但是最後我們都必需面對「真相時刻」。不幸的是，基金價格還沒有達到2蚊，而2017年是這個基金第二次被指數打敗（首次是在2009年, 當年只有6個月的時間因為的創立日期是在2009年6月）。去年香港市場是全球表現最好的市場，上漲了36％，但我的基金只上漲了8.6％。
雖然我的整體表現仍然遙遙領先（96.85％比61.70％）, 但我對結果還是很失望。如果比較香港最好的香港股票基金，例如永明強積金的香港股票基金，十年回報率為96.56％，考慮他們會收取管理費，而我卻沒有，這個基金的表現確實優於香港最好的基金經理。
但是我應該開心嗎？不，一點也不應該，讓我告訴你為什麼。公共共同基金需要管理一至十億的資產，他們如何經營一個基金完全不同於一個只需要管理一百萬至一千萬的散戶。首先他們的選擇是非常有限的，當他們投資時，他們需要在市場上買賣數以百萬計的股票，這並不容易，他們也有法律限制，例如現金水平不能太高，所以當市場崩盤時，他們仍然需要持有股票而不能像普通投資者那樣出售成現金，即使他們可以這樣做也會有巨大劣勢，想像一下，如果你想以1元的價格在市場上拋售一百萬股，誰將會購買那個數量股票的？即使你成功賣出它們，當你在跌市完成賣出時，價格可能已經下降了30-40％。
對於一個像我這樣蚊型的「基金」來說，一個優秀的投資者應該能夠獲得25%以上的年化回報，我會引用巴菲特所說的話：「如果我今天只管理一百萬美元，或者一千萬， 我會完全投資。任何人認為資產多少不會影響表現的只是推銷。我所取得的最高回報率是在五十年代。我殺死了道瓊斯指數，你應該去看看那些數字，但當時我只是在投資花生。沒有很多錢是一個巨大的結構優勢，我想我可以幫你以一百萬美元每年賺50%。不，我知道我可以，我可以保證。」
我可以完全同意這個說法，因為即使我不是巴菲特，基金香港股票部分從2010年到2017年12月也已經實現了382%的漲幅，換算成年均回報率約為21.1%。
總體表現下降的原因是我剛開始這個基金時，沒有完全投資股票。事實上，我開始時只通過投資我公司（宏利）的共同基金，放貸，買一些黃金和比特幣，把些錢在這在那，只是因為當時我還沒有足夠的信心，所以我試圖「分散投資」。當我回頭看時，這是一個糟糕的主意，深深傷害了基金的表現。
有一本由傑諾米‧席格爾撰寫名為《投資王道》(台譯：長線獲利之道) 的經典投資書，我向所有初學者推薦，他用了很多歷史數據得出一個明確的結論：在所有的資產類別中，長期來看沒有任何東西可以戰勝股票，不是債券，不是黃金，不是貴金屬，不是共同基金，甚至不是通貨膨脹，但其風險低於把錢存入銀行！對於很多人來說，即使是那些所謂的專業人士也難以接受，因為讓我們面對現實，我們身邊有多少人在股市上損失了大量的金錢？很多！但用最簡單的形式來回答這個問題：他們要不是不是在投資，就是留得不夠久。
從1802年1月至2016年12月（215年的紀錄）
股票：$ 1 → $1,136,042（+ 113604200％，年化收益+ 6.7％）
債券：$1 → $1649（+ 164900％，年化收益+ 3.5％）
票據：$ 1 → $268（+ 26800％，年化收益+ 2.6％）
黃金：$ 1 →$2.97（+ 297％，年化收益+ 0.5％）
美元：$1 → $0.049（-95.1％，年化收益率-1.4％）
在我寫這份報告的時候，香港市場剛剛突破歷史高點，我預計基於幾個主要原因，這個市場還會繼續上漲。
1. 市盈率依然偏低，市盈率22以上的時候才會接近崩盤，現在的市盈率只有15左右
2. 暫時上漲只是由一些大公司支持，中小企業仍然滯後，當市場被高估的時候，即使是最垃圾的股票也會有機會發光發亮。
3.「恐慌指數」（波動率指數）仍然處於平均水平，這個指標反映的是市民是否擔心市場，當牛市達到頂峰，社會會感到無所畏懼，因為每個人都加入了派對並且賺了很多錢（賬面上），你會聽到大眾在街上談論股票，甚至細路會告訴你他們的選股是多麼的「出色」，每個人都會對股市有絕對的信心，但實際上這時候風險是最高的。目前仍然有很多聲音要求人們要小心，你還不能真正感受到熱度。
4.創下歷史新高後都會創造一個新篇章，達到新高時，很多人都擔心我們是否已經達到頂峰？但是從歷史上看，每一個新高都會比前一個更高，更不用說我們上一個新高已經是十年前了。如果我們回顧30年前，3000點已經是新高，我們今天已經升了10倍，預計到2047年我退休的時候，預料指數會再升10倍的想法並不瘋狂。
我預計2018年將會這個基金重要的一年，我知道股票和基金在第一季度表現將會很好，我也希望在2019年前再集資多50到100萬，不是因為我想今年投資更多，隨著市場上漲，風險也變得越來越大，所以今年要做的就是一點點地拋售股票，今年集資的錢是為了保證市場崩盤時，我會有足夠的現金在低位買入，當崩盤時才集資已經太遲，到時投資氣氛可能極度恐慌沒有人會理會我了。我也決定在2020年之前關閉除股票以外的所有部位，現在的我和2007年相比已經是一個不同的人了，我不會再用「多元化」來保護自己的無知。在下一個基金報告中，我會告訴你在過去的8年裡，有甚麼好的，壞的，醜陋的投資決策。
最好的祝福，
卡爾文
“Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” – Warren Buffett
Dear Investors,
I am not sure which job make me sleepier, working on the fund price or writing this annual report, but at the end of the day, we all need to face “the moment of truth”. Unfortunately the fund price still haven’t reached $2 yet, and 2017 is the second time the fund got beaten by the index (first time was back in 2009 when we only had 6 months since this fund was created in June, 2009). Last year HK market has the best performance in the world with 36% gain, while my fund has only gained 8.6%.
Neglect my overall performance is way ahead of the index (96.85% vs 61.70%); I am still quite disappointed with the result. Compare to the best fund Hong Kong equity fund, e.g. Sun Life MPF Hong Kong Equity Fund with a 10 years return of 96.56%, consider they charge management fee and I don’t, my fund do perform better than the best fund managers in Hong Kong.
However should I be happy? No, not at all, and I will tell you why. Public mutual funds are managing 100 to 1000 million USD of assets, how they run a fund is completely different than an individual that only need to manage 1-10 million. Firstly their options are very limited, when they invest they need to buy and sell millions of shares on the market which is not easy, also they have law restriction to keep the cash ratio at low level, so when the market crash, they still need to keep the stocks and unable to cash out like a normal investor, even if they can they will be at a huge disadvantages, imagine if you want to dump one millions of shares on the market at a price of $1, who is going to buy that amount of stocks? Even you succeed, by the time you sell them all in a falling market, the price have dropped 30-40% already.
For a “fund” as tiny as mine, an excellent investor should able to achieve 25%+ annualized return, I will quote what Warren Buffett have said: “If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.”
I can totally agree on that because even I am no Warren Buffett, the Hong Kong stock portion of my fund have already achieved 382% gain from 2010 to Dec, 2017, which translate to roughly 21.1% annualized return.
What make the overall performance drop is that when I first started this fund, I wasn’t fully invested in stock. In fact I started learning by investing in my company’s (Manulife) mutual funds, money lending, buy some gold and bitcoin, put the money here and there, only because I wasn’t confident enough back then, so I tried to “diversify”, when I look back now it was such a bad idea and it hurts the fund’s performance deeply.
There is a classic investment book written by Jeremy Siegel named “Stocks for long run” I recommend to all beginners, he used many historically data to draw out one clear conclusion: in all asset classes, nothing can beat stocks in long run, not bonds, not gold, not precious metals, not mutual funds, not even inflation, but its risk is lower than putting your money in bank! To many people even those so-called professionals have trouble accepting this, because let’s face it, how many people around us have lost tons of money in the stock market? A lot! To answer this question in the simplest form: Neither they were not investing, nor they have not stayed long enough.
From Jan 1802 – Dec 2016 (record of 215 years)
Stocks: $1 → $1,136,042 (+113604200%, annualized return +6.7%)
Bonds: $1 → $1649 (+164900%, annualized return +3.5%)
Bills: $1 → $268 (+26800%, annualized return +2.6%)
Gold: $1 → $2.97 (+297%, annualized return +0.5%)
Dollar: $1 → $0.049 (-95.1%, annualized return -1.4%)
The Hong Kong market have just breached the historical high as I am writing this report, and I expect it will continue to go up base on few main reasons.
1. The P/E is still quite low, the price earnings ratio is only around 15 now when 22 is consider as high before the market collapse
2. The rises are only backed up those big companies, the medium and small companies are still holding back, from my experience when the market is overvalued, even the most rubbish stocks will get his chance.
3. The “fear index” (volatility index) is still average, this index reflect whether the general public worry about the market, when the bull market has reached its peak, the society will feel they have no fear because everyone has joined the party and made a lot of money (on paper), you hear everyone talk about stocks on the street, even the kids will tell you how “good” they are in stock picking, everyone will have absolute confident in the stock market but in reality the risk is at its highest. At the moment there are still a lot of noises asking the people to be careful, you can’t really feel the heat just yet.
4. A chapter is created after breaking through the historical high, when a new high is reached many people fear has we reached the top already? But from history each new high will go much further than the previous one, not to mention our previous one was 10 years ago. If we look back in 30 years ago, 3000 points was the new high, we have already 10 folded today, it is not crazy to predict when I retire in year 2047 the index will be 10 folded again.
I expect 2018 will be a changing year for this fund, I know the stocks and fund will perform well in the first quarter, I also hope to raise another 500k to 1 million before 2019, not because I want to invest more this year, it is getting risker and risker as the market rises, so what I am going to do this year is to sell off the shares little by little, the money I receive this year is to ensure when the market crash, I will have enough cash to buy low, it will be too late to raise fund when the market crash, the investment atmosphere might be so fearful everyone will just ignore me. I have also decided to close all positions other than stocks by year 2020, because I am a different man compare to 2007 now, and won’t use diversification as the protection against ignorance. In the next fund reports, I will show you the good, the bad and the ugly of my investment decisions in the last 8 years.
Regards,
Calvin
