12/2021 $2.0648
01/2022 $2.1035
02/2022 $2.0459 (Latest)
市場總值 Total Market Value: $2,657,534.86
基金單位總數 Total Units : 1,298,939.3254 Units
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各位投資者,
這就是了！我們正處於之前談論的階段，Covid-19 + 通脹 + 戰爭就在這裡，但在我們開始之前，讓我回顧一下之前基金報告中的幾句話
13/1/2016：2015 年度報告 - 這次不一樣!
「美國資產的升幅已經達到一個荒謬的水平，由於5年之久的量化寬鬆政策，我不會花時間來討論美國聯儲局創造了這個危機的細節，我只能說，一個超巨型泡沫是由聯邦政府創造是在自由市場的歷史中是極為罕見」
16/09/2018：2018 年 8 月報告 - 暴風前夕
「一切似乎都很好，但歷史總會重演，沒有人知道風暴甚麼時候會發生，怎樣發生，在哪裡發生，更重要我們不需要知道為甚麼會發生，因為任何有經驗的投資者都知道甚麼時候應該進入防守模式」
15/06/2021：12 週年報告 - 它最終會停下來
「所以我的觀點沒有改變，美國沒有可能永遠印銀紙，利息沒有可能永遠接近零，通脹也沒有可能永遠不升，可是沒有人知道風暴甚麼時候來，怎麼來，由哪裡來，我只能保證瘋狂派對要結束的機會比3年前高得多，我不相信它會有個好結局。」
我可能擔心得有點太早，下圖顯示了截至目前為止，在上述三份報告發布的月份，我的基金表現與恆生指數和標準普爾 500 指數的比較。
|
日期 |
恆生指數 |
標準普爾
500 |
基金 |
|
Jan, 2016 |
19,595.50 (+16.16%) |
1,939.38 (+125.53%) |
1.7117 (+19.52%) |
|
Sep, 2018 |
27,126.38 (-16.09%) |
2,924.59 (+49.56%) |
1.9641 (+4.17%) |
|
Jun, 2021 |
28,310.42 (-19.6%) |
4,297.50 (+1.78%) |
2.2321 (-8.34%) |
|
Feb, 2022 |
22,761.71 |
4,373.94 |
2.0459 |
正如你所看到的，我大大低估了美國市場從 2016 年開始的瘋狂程度，標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 125%，而我的基金只有 19.52% 或自 2018 年 9 月以來增長了 4.17%，遠遠落後於美國市場，當然保守一點並沒有錯，我們仍然擊敗了恆生指數，但這只是因為它的表現太糟糕，儘管我可能早了 7 年，但我相信 2022-23 年可能會讓我們回到石器時代。 世界經歷了過去10多年史上最長的牛市，接近零利率，低通脹，無限印鈔，當全世界有這麼多免費的錢時，我想不出有甚麼資產類別沒有升到上月球，股票，債券，房地產，加密貨幣，高科技低科技任何錢能買到的東西人們都會爭先恐後地購買。
在我看來，這些特權都即將結束，以下是原因
1. Covid-19 對經濟的影響已經開始浮現 - 我們不能忽視 Covid-19 對世界的最大影響是死亡人數，但是對於那些仍然活著的人來說，我們仍然需要想辦法搵食。 沒有人預料到疫情會持續這麼久，但結果我們都在這裡，航空、旅遊、酒店全部停下來，工廠、電影院、餐館甚至城市都關了門，世界銀行估計最貧窮的 四成人口的收入還沒有開始恢復到疫情前。 在 2021 年 6 月上一份報告中，我們曾表示，儘管經濟受到影響，但美國股市仍然不斷創新高，這是來自向公眾提供免費資金的「經濟刺激計劃」，他們寧可在股市賭博也不要上班，我們也說過這不能永遠持續下去。
科斯托蘭尼曾經用一個比喻來形容經濟和股市的關係，就像一個人在遛狗，人走得很慢，但狗已經來回跑了好幾轉，2021 年狗往前跑，現在我們正看著它跑回來。
2. 不可避免的通脹和加息 - 過去十年最大的謎團之一，是聯儲局通過量化寬鬆無限印製銀紙但通脹仍可保持在低位，許多人認為壞兆頭只是被推遲了，他們是對的。美國通脹率在 2022 年 1 月加速至 7.5%，為 40 年前 1982 年 2 月以來最高，預計 2022 年 2 月將進一步升至 7.9%。不意外80 年代的大通脹時代也是由美國中央銀行的「寬鬆貨幣」政策開始，為了在 1970 年代初期創造充分就業，最終在某個點以高達 20% 的利率告終。
由需求驅動的溫和通膨是一件好事，這意味著經濟正在復蘇，因為人們願意花更多的錢，然而，像 80 年代那樣出現惡性通貨膨脹並不是一件好事，因為必需品變得如此昂貴，使得人們的生活就像一個活生生的地獄，這次通脹變得更糟的不是因為需求，而是因為 covid-19 導致供應鏈陷入困境。我在 11 月初為侄女訂購了一台 iPad 作為聖誕禮物，通常應該在 2 週內到貨，由於供應鏈樽頸它到 1 月才到貨，因為蘋果優先生產iPhone，這在就算是疫情最嚴重的時候也沒有發生過的。所以現在我們有一群收到免費刺激經濟支票的人想購物但沒有貨，由於供應有限推動了價格上漲。
為應對通脹，聯儲局必須加息以降溫經濟，市場預計美聯儲將在2022年至少加息4次，從3月份開始加息25個基點，這意味著長期零利率政策或將告一段落。將會影響未來幾年的估值，尤其是在高增長和高科技領域。
3. 戰爭讓一切變得更糟 - 如果所有這些都不足以讓標準普爾 500 指數由年初至今下跌 10%，那麼與俄羅斯入侵混在一起怎麼樣？戰爭沒有贏家，其實有的就是國防板塊，RTX，LMT股價暴漲，我去年買了一些雷神科技作為防守部位，但我當時預期會打仗嗎？當然不是。突如其來的利潤並沒有讓我高興，更重要它並沒有改變大局，股市崩盤了。查理芒格稱通貨膨脹是除了核戰爭外最大的長期危險，現在我們需要同時面臨這兩種威脅。美國製裁將能源價格推高至每桶 130 美元，分析師稱 200 美元的油價不再瘋狂，這對我來說聽起來很瘋狂，因為記得早在 2020 年，油價跌到零（甚至為負），我不清楚，也許記錄注定要被打破，但我肯定知道上一次油價處於這個水平是在 2008 年。能源價格影響著從家庭到全球生產的各方面，而高油價被視為經濟衰退前的信號。
黃金價格也飆升至 2050 美元，非常接近 2020 年 8 月的歷史高點 2074.88美元。如果你有睇過之前的報告，應該知道我從 2015 年開始建立黃金相關資產，那時我開始感覺市場一天比一天危險，當最差的情況發生時黃金就是避風港，當回頭看時，我不應該過份擔心，可以接受更多風險以獲得更好的回報，就是擔心也許可在 2018 年而不是 2015 年開始。
戰爭有很多不確定性，可能會在短時間內升級為更糟糕的事情，我的心與烏克蘭同在，但除了捐贈給國家軍隊也無能為力，我很感激我仍然有幸生活在世界上一個相對和平和安全的地方。
我們正處於危險時期，下跌 10%只可當是小幅回調，如果熊市來襲，我們將看到全球市場下跌 50%，大摩已表示一場「完美風暴」正在聚集，一些傳奇投資者甚至預測即將到來的崩盤會相當於 2008 年甚至 1929 年。感覺就像看一個連鎖反應，世界從 covid 19 開始永遠不會再一樣，加上不可避免的通貨膨脹，最終導致一場戰爭，有人說普京可能因為疫情中一個人被隔絕才會產生脫離現實的妄想，進而在歐洲開戰，我不知道這是否屬實，但確實有一定道理。無論如何，我不能保證我們能賺到很多錢，但我可以保證我們會度過這場危機並把變成機會，因為我從 2015 年開始就一直預期今天的情況。
下次再談,
Calvin
=========================================================================
Hello Investors,
This is it! we are at the stage where I have been talked about, Covid-19 + inflation + War is here, but before we start, please allow me to recap couple quotes from my previous fund reports
13/01/2016: 2015 Annual Report – This time is different!
“The US asset rise have reached to a ridiculous level due to the 5 years long QE, I won’t spend time to discuss the details of the crisis the FED is creating, I can only say it is extremely rare within the history of free market, a mega huge bubble is created by the federal government”
16/09/2018: Aug 2018 Report - Before the Storm
“Everything seems fine, but history always repeat itself, no one knows when the storm will strike, and how, and where, more importantly we don't need to know why, because any experienced investors should have the sense to know it is time to go defensive mode”
15/06/2021: 12th Anniversary Report - It will eventually stop
“So my view hasn’t changed, it is not possible for US to print money forever, it is not possible for the interest to stay close to zero forever, it is not possible for the inflation stay flat forever, no one knows when the storm will strike, how, and where, I can only ensure you the chance of the frenzied party will come to an end is much higher after 3 years, I do not believe it will end well.”
I might be worried a little bit too much and a bit early, the graph below shows how my fund performance compares to HS Index and S&P 500 at the dates the three reports were released above until now.
|
HSI |
S&P 500 |
Fund |
|
|
Jan, 2016 |
19,595.50 (+16.16%) |
1,939.38 (+125.53%) |
1.7117 (+19.52%) |
|
Sep, 2018 |
27,126.38 (-16.09%) |
2,924.59 (+49.56%) |
1.9641 (+4.17%) |
|
Jun, 2021 |
28,310.42 (-19.6%) |
4,297.50 (+1.78%) |
2.2321 (-8.34%) |
|
Feb, 2022 |
22,761.71 |
4,373.94 |
2.0459 |
As you can see I have hugely underestimated how crazy the US market can go from 2016, S&P 500 have gone up 125% and my fund is up 19.52% or 4.17% since Sep 2018 only, hugely lag behind the US market, of course there is nothing wrong to be conservative, we still beat the HS Index but only because how bad it performed, though I might have been 7 years too early, I believe 2022-23 is the year might send us back to the stone age. The world has enjoyed the longest bull market in the history for the last 10+ years, close to zero interest rate, low inflation, infinite money printing, when there is so much free money around the world, I can’t think of an asset class didn’t shoot to the moon, stock, bond, real estate, cryptocurrency, high tech low tech anything money can buy people will rush to buy it.
It seems to me all these privileges are coming to an end, here is why
1. Covid-19’s impact to economy has started to show - we cannot overlook the biggest impact of covid 19 to the world is the number of deaths, however for those who are living we still need to find way to put food on the table. Nobody expect the pandemic last this long, yet here we are, aviation, tourism, hospitality all came to halt, factories, movie theaters, restaurants even cities were shutdown, the world bank estimate the poorest 40% still have not started to recover their income losses compare to pre-pandemic. From our last report in Jun, 2021, we have stated that even though the economic is suffering, but the US stock market still kept making new high, it is due to “stimulus program” when the general public is offered with free money, they prefer gamble in the stock market than going to work, we have also stated that this cannot go on forever.
André Kostolany once used an analogy to describe the relationship between economy and the stock market is like a man walking his dog, the man walks slowly, the dog runs back and forth, the dog ran forth in 2021 and we are looking at it running back towards us now.
2. Inflation and rate hikes are inevitable – One of the biggest mysteries in the last decade is the inflation kept low when the FED printed unlimited money through QE, many suggested the bad omens were only delayed, and they were right. The US inflation rate accelerated to 7.5% in Jan 2022, the highest since Feb of 1982 40 years ago, expect to go even higher at 7.9% in Feb 2022. Non-surprisingly the great inflation in the 80’s was also caused by the US central bank “easy money” policy, in order the generate full employment by the early 1970s, end up with a whooping 20% interesting rate at some point.
Mild inflation is a good thing if it is driven by demand, it also means the economy is recovering because people are willing to spend more, however, to have hyperinflation like in the 80’s is not a good thing because necessities are getting so expensive made people’s life like a living hell, what make it worser this time the inflation is not because of demand, but the struggling supply chain due to covid-19. I ordered an iPad for my niece in early Nov as Christmas present, usually it should arrive within 2 weeks, due to the bottlenecked supply chain it didn’t arrive until Jan because Apple put iPhone in production priority, this has never happened before even at the worst time of the pandemic. So now we have a bunch of people with free stimulus cheque actually want to do some shopping but there are no stocks, it drives the price way up due to the limited supply.
To combat inflation, FED must increase interest rate to cool down the economy, market expects FED to hike rates at least 4 times in 2022, start with 25 base point in March, which means the long zero interest policy might come to an end, it will affect valuation in the next couple years, esp. in high growth and high-tech sectors.
3. War makes everything worser – If all these weren’t bad enough to make the S&P 500 index dropped 10% YTD, how about mix with a Russia invasion? There is no winner in war, except there is, the defense sector, RTX, LMT stock price went through the roof, I have bought some Raytheon Technologies as a defensive position last year, but did I expect a war? Of course not. The sudden profit didn’t make me happy at all, on top of that it didn’t change the big picture, the stock market crumbled. Charlie Munger called inflation is the biggest long-range danger, apart from nuclear war and we get both threats now, together. US sanction drives the energy price to $130 a barrel, analysts say oil price $200 is no longer crazy, sounds pretty crazy to me since remember back in 2020, the oil price was at zero (even negative), maybe records are meant to be broken I don’t know, but I surely know the last time oil price at this level was in 2008. Energy price affects everything from household to global production, and high oil price are seen as a sign before recession.
Gold price has also surged to $2050, very close to historical high of 2074.88 in Aug 2020. If you have followed my previous reports, you should know I started building up position in gold-related assets since 2015, it was the time I started to feel the market is getting riskier every day, gold is the safe haven when shit hit the fan, when I looked back I should have been more care free, accepting more risk for better return, maybe start worrying in 2018 instead of 2015.There are a lot of uncertainties in war and it can escalate to something much worse in a short period of time, my heart is with Ukraine personally, but there is not much I can do apart from donating to the national army, I am grateful I still have the privilege of living in a relatively peaceful and safe part of the world.
We are at dangerous time, 10% drop can consider as a minor correction, if a bear market strike, we are looking at a 50% drop in the global market, Morgan Stanly says a “perfect storm” looks to be gathering, some legendary investors even predict the coming crash equivalent to 2008 even 1929. It feels like looking at a chain reaction, the world will never be the same started from covid 19, mix with inevitable inflation, and lead to a war, some say Vladimir Putin might become delusional and detached from the reality to start a war in Europe because of the isolation from the pandemic, I do not know how true this is, but it does make some sense. Anyway, I cannot guarantee we can make tons of money, but I can ensure we will get through this crisis and make it into our opportunity, because I have been expecting this since 2015.
Regards,
Calvin
