MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2016 - Time the Market 入市時機

31st, Jan 2016

Latest fund price: $1.7127 (-0.0562, 3.17%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,447,357.24 

Total units: 845,065.4598 units

29th, Feb 2016

Latest fund price: $1.7363 (+0.0236, 1.38%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,457,132.07

Total units: 839,226.7806 units

Hello Investors!

Haha, belated Happy Chinese New Year! yes, I know, I didn’t write anything last month. I have been busy, I have travelled to Japan to attend a University friend’s wedding, visited both Nagoya and Tokyo and the hype still remind! Yada yada, this is my lovely picture with this giant animated robot Gundam, but the main reason I didn’t release a fund report is that I didn’t make any move for couple months now, and I do not want to write report for the sake of writing, I wish my reports have contents. I think I will go with this flow in the future, so some months you will not receive any report from me, but if you have doubts or questions, you can always write to me through the fund email: investment@mechcalvin.com

The market continues to drop, HS index closed at 19111.12 on the 29/2/2016, the index has only gone up 3.29% up since the beginning of this fund back in 4/6/2009, almost 6.5 years ago, my fund still up 70%. Although my stocks holding in Hong Kong also fell a lot inevitably, however not all assets fell, the gold have surged 13% year to date from USD 1100 to USD 1250 per ounce, unfortunately I brought gold too early at around USD 1600 per ounce couple years ago (rookie mistake: buy things when they are cheap but not cheapest), yet I believe the trend will continue when the market become too volatile, everyone want to park their money in gold, I think I have said that in my last fund report.

Japanese Yen also came back, even with negative interest rate, the Japanese Yen become another “parking” asset when people believe there will be storm coming, I believe my yen holding will become profitable within this year, unfortunately I didn’t buy too many Japanese Yen…

My British and American stock also surged, yet once again I didn’t have too many oversea stock holdings unfortunately… -_-"

Lately I have been reading a lot of books about few legendary investors, e.g. Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and newly added Roy Neuberger and John Templeton.

I already used one of the quotes from John Templeton in my last fund report: The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’

This time I will use one of his other quotes: Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.

Actually one more: It is time in the market, not timing the market that counts.

Market are consisted of 10% winners and 90% losers, and for most people the only way to prevent loss is not to invest at all, this is when I can show off another Sir Templeton’s quote: The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. *I am such a lame fan boy :)

Most investors (or should I call them speculators) try to time the market, that’s why we always hear confused people keep asking: what should I do now? Should I invest now? Is it the best time to buy now? Should I enter the market now? Should I wait?

Since this is such a common question, that’s why we can see all these “professionals” on TV, radio and internet try to feed these miserable speculators with ambiguous answers, sometimes even worse, with determined answers.

After some many readings and research and practice, I am almost certain no one can time the market correctly, no one can tell what the market will become tomorrow or the day after, by trying to predicting the future people put themselves into a very dangerous situation, a situation that many have tried and failed, try to play god. For what can be certain is that the more time you sit tight, stay in the market, and do nothing most of the time, the market will work for you, stocks will eventually go up if you understand where you put your money into, I am not saying to invest blindly into anything because everything will eventually go up, I am saying you will have a better result to pick few stocks (this is where the magic happens) carefully then do nothing, rather than trying to read what the market is going on, and waste time to figure out what is going on.

In conclusion, doing nothing has been my winning strategy and worked out pretty well, pretty sure I will stay the same in the future.

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. I just wrote 800 words to explain why I did nothing! Brilliant! I am such a potential writer! Haha!

投資者您好！

哈哈，遲來的中國新年快樂！是的，我知道我上個月沒寫任何東西。我一直在忙，上個月我到日本參加一個大學朋友的婚禮，去了名古屋和東京，仍然很興奮！Ｙａｄａ　Ｙａｄａ，付上這張我跟這個巨大動畫機器人高達的可愛照片，但我沒有寫基金報告中最主要的原因是，我過去幾個月我甚麼都沒做，我不想為寫報告而寫，我希望我的報告有內容。我想我會在未來這個順其自然，所以可能有一些月份，你不會從我這裡收到報告，但如果你有疑問或問題，可以隨時通過基金郵件寫信給我：investment@mechcalvin.com

市場繼續下跌，恆指在2月29日收報19111.12點，指數比起這個基金在2009年6月4日開始時只升了3.29％，這是6年半前，我的基金仍然升了７０％。雖然我的香港股票也難免下降了不少，但不是所有的資產下跌，金價以年頭計起已飆升了13％，今年迄今從1100美元每盎司升至1250美元，不幸的是我買得太早了，我幾年前時在1600美元左右時就買入了（新手的錯誤：當便宜時就買東西，卻不是最便宜），但我相信這一趨勢將繼續，當市場變得過於不穩定，每個人都希望把錢投在黃金，我想我在上次的基金報告已經說過，。

日元也回來了，甚至負利率出現，當人們相信會有暴風雨就要來了，日元成為另一個“避險”資產，我相信我手持的日元將在今年內實現盈利，可惜我沒買太多日元...

我的美國跟英國股票也大升，再次可惜我沒有買入太多國外股票...　-_-"

最近我一直在閱讀了很多關於一些傳奇投資者的書籍，例如彼得林區，·巴菲特，以及新加入的羅伊紐伯格和約翰鄧普頓。

我在上一個基金報告已經引述了一句鄧普頓的名言：投資中最危險的四個字是：「這一次是不同的。」

今次我會用他的另一句報價名言：在最悲觀的時候投資。

再加多一句：不是去補捉最佳入市時機，而是長期堅持不懈地投資的時間才重要。

市場是由10％的勝利者和90％的失敗者組成的，而對大多數人來說，防止損失的唯一辦法是不投資，這時我可以炫耀的另一句鄧普頓爵士的座右銘：避免錯誤的唯一方法是不投資 - 這是所有的最大的錯誤。 *我真是一個很爛的粉絲 :)

大多數投資者（或者我應該叫他們投機者）嘗試補捉市場時機，這就是為什麼我們總是聽到人們一直問：我該怎麼辦？我現在是否應該投資？現在是否購買的最佳時機？我現在應該入市？還是應該等待？

由於這是一個十分普遍的問題，那就是為甚麼我們可以在電視，收音機和互聯網看到聽到這些「專業人士」嚐試用無菱兩可的答案餵養給這些可憐的投機者吃，有時甚至更糟，用堅定的答案。

經過許多閱讀，研究和實踐後，我幾乎可以肯定沒有人能正確補捉入市時機，沒有人能告訴市場明天或後天會發生甚麼事，試圖預測未來的人將自己放在一個非常危險的處境，就是許多人已經嘗試和失敗的處境，就是試圖扮演上帝的角色。對於甚麼可以肯定的是當你花更多時間在市場坐穩，留在市場內，大部分時間甚麼事都不用做，市場就會為你工作，股票最終將會上漲如果你明白你把錢進在甚麼，我我並不是說盲目地投資，因為最終甚麼都會上升，我說你如果仔細挑選幾隻股票（這才是真功夫），然後甚麼也不做，而不是試圖去解讀市場，和浪費時間來搞清楚是怎麼回事，將會有一個更好的結果。

總之，甚麼都不做一直是我的制勝戰略，而且過去一直運作得很好，我很肯定我未來將會保持這個策略不變。

多謝，

卡爾文

附：我剛剛用了1300字來解釋為甚麼我甚麼也沒做！天才！我真是一位有潛質的作家！哈哈!

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2015 –This time is different! 這次不一樣!

Latest fund price: $1.7689 (-0.0084, 0.47%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,494,796.42

Total units: 845,065.4598 units

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year! Finally I can sit down and write something properly, well I have to, after all it has been awhile. We are now in 2016 but none of the car is flying as the movie “back to the future” described, but surely the world has changed a lot, human nature? Not so much. 

Anyway, let’s do less storytelling and go back to the business. The stock market has dropped since the hype in April for 7 months consecutively, not exactly consecutively but the downward trend is obvious. 

I didn’t make any changes since last report (Oct), except sold all my RMB, it seems it wasn’t a bad idea looking back now. I have attached my fund performance against the Hang Seng Index, and attached ALL my previous trades (Hong Kong stocks only) in the excel file, it is a solid evidence of my investment skill over the years and I only disclose this information to my investors exclusively, so please don’t share it.

This year I hope my fund can reached 2-2.5 million HKD in size, I don’t know how I will get there and where to locate more investors, but I know eventually I will succeed. Frankly I didn’t even know how I got here to from the first place but here we are, it seems things just happened progressively. I expect the market to be weak in the short future so I want to spend time to talk about more about the interest hike, if you are not interested, you can stop reading to get back to your work/ rest/ games now.

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Heraclitus once said: “The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change”, however I am more of a fan of the French saying: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" (the more it changes, the more it's stay the same)

The financial world keep changing its game and people (even the professional) found it hard to keep up, every situation seems different, you can follow hundreds of Wall Street journalists, Analysts and financial professionals have thousands of opinion (that’s why I never follow any of them), even my salesman colleagues in the insurance company need to keep up with all these hardly understand information (if you want to appear to be professional in front of their clients), people are not interested in things they are already know and craving for the ever changing game.

To me all these are unnecessary and more importantly – useless, each time people say this time is different! They can give you 10,000 reasons why you have to look at the current situation differently in order to fit their own agenda, a salesman will keep telling you this is the best time to buy because this time is different! All these mediocre fund managers will tell you shamelessly this is the best time to invest because this time is different! (Regardless they have lost a big chunk of money from the investors previously) and moreover, the average people keep falling for these delusive ideas because they believe “this time is different”, every time!

Understanding each crisis is different outside but pretty much the same in nature will save you a lot of stress, the market consist of people and human nature never change, the financial world behave, speak and act repeatedly with different “appearances and excuses”, but in nature they are ALL THE SAME, no matter what anyone tells you, they are ALL THE SAME!

We had the great depression back in the 20’s, the energy crisis in the 70’s, the Black Monday in 1987, Asian financial crisis in 1997, dot com bubble in 2000, SARS in 2003, Financial Crisis in 2008, The European debt crisis in 2010, and we are waiting for something bigger to come, yet it doesn’t matter whatever crisis throw at us, the market behavior is only driven by two factors, “Fear” and “Greed”, nothing else, no matter what anyone tells you.

Every crisis a bunch of clueless investors imagine the end of the world might coming, and the all these “professionals”, journalists, media give everyone a push, the fear gasp everyone’s breath and took sell as the decision because it is too “risky!”; But when the market rise, everyone seems forget about so called risk and want to join the game because everyone else seems making money, it is too stupid not to join the party, of course again the “professional”, journalists and media will also give them a push, because why not if this seems to please everyone (esp. when they are “drunk” with their paper wealth).

It is impossible to predict what the next crisis will be, if you can foresee the future you don’t need to invest anymore, fortunately an intelligent investor do not require knowing the future in order to be wealthy, in fact spending too much time try to figure out whether tomorrow will be raining or not might be a completely waste of time, that is why I do not understand what with all these economic forecast reports from many finance institution, as informative as they seems they are utterly useless, but that’s how they get pay and that’s how this world work, we need a lot of useless jobs otherwise with the growth speed of the world population, the unemployment rate won’t look good, yeah right.

Anyway, I am expecting a rough ride in the coming year, the US asset rise have reached to a ridiculous level due to the 5 years long QE, I won’t spend time to discuss the details of the crisis the FED is creating, I can only say it is extremely rare within the history of free market, a mega huge bubble is created by the federal government, in fact I cannot think of any examples in the history of mankind, but USA did it, with all the money printing since 2008, they have created a mega huge bubble that seems make the data looks right on paper, but it didn’t help the real economy that much (it helped a little bit), but most of the benefits went into the asset holders, corporation and already rich people, what she has left is a much higher debt, and frankly they cannot afford any interest rise, however they have decided to do so, this self-inflated bubble will lead to a huge burst eventually, I don’t know when this will happen, but I know it is coming, I can already feel it, so do prepare for some really rough ride in the near future. In the mean time I will embrace gold, since in the time of fear, gold will become the “safeguard” of many investors, and I expect a lot of fear will be coming, stay tuned!

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

新年快樂！我終於可以坐下來寫些的東西，其實是一定要，畢竟已經過了一段時間。我們現在已經在2016年，但沒有像電影「回到未來」中的描述滿天飛車是，但世界肯定已經發生了很大變化，人的本性？卻沒那麼多。

無論如何，讓我們做的少講故事，返回到業務。四月份被炒作的股市已連續下跌7個月連續，不完全是連續，但下降趨勢非常明顯。

自從上一次報告（10月），除出售我所有的人民幣，我沒有再做過任何改變，現在回頭來看，這也許不是一個壞主意。以上附上我的基金表現比較恆生指數，也附上了自從基金成立以來所有的交易（只限港股）的Excel文件，這是我多年來的投資技術的強力證據，但我只能透露這些信息給我的投資者，所以請不要分享它。

今年，我希望我的基金能達到二至二百五十萬港元的規模，我不知道我會如何達到，或在哪裡可以找到更多的投資者，但我知道最終我會成功的。坦白說，我甚至不知道我一開始行到今天，但結果今天我們都在這裡，好像事情慢慢就發生了。我預期市場在短期會繼續疲弱，所以我想花時間來談論加息，如果你不感興趣，你現在可以停止閱讀回到你的工作/休息/遊戲。

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赫拉克利特曾說過：「唯一不變的就是變化本身」，但我比較是法國諺語的「粉絲」：“plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”（事情改變越多，越顯得其本質不變）

金融世界的遊戲不斷變化，人們（甚至是專業人士）都很難跟上，每一種情況都似乎不同，你可以按照數百位華爾街記者，分析師和金融專業提供幾千上萬的意見（這就是為什麼我從來沒有跟隨他們任何一個），甚至我保險公司的業務員同事都需要跟上這些很難理解的資訊（如果你想在客戶面前看起來像個專業），人們對已知的事情已經不感興趣，他們都渴望針不斷變化的遊戲。

對我來說，這些資訊都是不必要的，更重要的是 – 根本沒用，每次有人說這一次是不同的！他們可以給你一萬個理由為甚麼你需要看看目前的情況跟之前如何不同，以符合自己的利益，推銷員將會繼續告訴你這正是最佳的買入時機，因為這一次是不同的！所有平庸的基金經理都會厚顏無恥地會告訴你是最佳的投資時機，因為這一次是不同的！ （不管他們之前才輸掉大一部分來自投資人的錢），更甚者，普通人卻不停繼續跌落這些虛妄的想法，因為他們也認為「這一次是不同的」，而且是每一次！

了解每次危機表面上都是不同，但本質上沒有分別會為你節省很多壓力，市場由人組成而人的本性永遠不會改變，世界金融市場以不同的「外表和藉口」不停重複相同的行為，聲調及行動，但在本質上它們都是一樣的，不管甚麼人告訴你，他們都是一樣的！

我們經過20年代的大蕭條， 70年代的能源危機，1987年的黑色星期一，1997年的亞洲金融風暴，2000年的互聯網泡沫，2003年的沙士疫潮，2008年的金融危機，2010年的歐債危機，我們都在等待更大的危機到來，但不管將來有甚麼危機，市場行為只受兩個因素影響，「恐懼」和「貪婪」，沒有別的，不管甚麼人告訴你。

每次危機一堆慌張的投資者想像世界末日就要到來，而所謂的「專業人士」，記者，媒體再給大家一推，恐懼令每個人都感到窒息跟住拋售手上的股票，因為它太「危險了」！但當市場上漲是，大家似乎忘記了所謂的風險，並想加入遊戲，因為每個人似乎都在賺錢，不參加這個派對實在是太愚蠢了，當然「專業人士」，記者和媒體也會好好配合給予他們推一把，有甚麼不好呢？如果這可以把大家都逗樂（尤其是當他們「醉倒」在紙上財貴）。

預測下一次危機是不可能的，如果你能預見未來，你就不需要投資了，幸好智慧的投資者並不需要知道未來就足以致富，其實花費了太多的時間嘗試預測明天是否會下雨是完全浪費時間的，這就是我不明白眾多金融機構推出這些經濟預測報告的原因，雖然內容豐富，但是完全無用，但這令他們得到薪水，世界是這樣運作的，我們需要大量無用的工作，否則隨著世界人口的增長速度，失業率將不太會好看。

無論如何，我預期未來一年會充滿挑戰，美國資產的升幅已經達到一個荒謬的水平，由於5年之久的量化寬鬆政策，我不會花時間來討論美國聯儲局創造了這個危機的細節，我只能說，一個超巨型泡沫是由聯邦政府創造是在自由市場的歷史中是極為罕見，事實上，我想不出在人類歷史上任何例子，但美國做到了，所有自2008年的印鈔，他們已經創造了一個超巨型的泡沫，使數據看起來比較正確，但它對真實經濟的幫助並沒有那麼多（也許有一點點），但大部分的收益都走進資產持有人，公司和已經很富有的人，留下的是一個更高的債務，而且事實上她們無法支撐任何的加息，但他們已經決定這樣做，這種自我膨脹的泡沫最終將會爆裂，我不知道甚麼時候會發生，但我知道它會來到，我已經能感覺到它，所以準備在不久的將來會非常波幅。在這段時間我會擁抱黃金，因為在恐懼的時候，黃金將成為許多投資者的「保障」，而我預期將會有很多的恐懼來到，靜候進一步的消息！

MECHCalvin Fund Report Sept, 2015 - The 8th Wonder: Compound interest 世界第八奇蹟: 複利

Latest fund price: $1.7698 (-0.0001, 0.01%)
Total Market Value: $1,567,891.46
Total units: 885,935.9229 units

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” - Albert Einstein

Dear Investors,

I am not sure Albert Einstein really said that, I am even unsure how one of the greatest scientists handled his personal finance; never the less this has become one of the most quoted line in finance.

After 5 consecutive months of falling, the market is stabilizing this month, it still fell but not as much as before, the stock dividend I received this month have made the loss even.

From the start of this fund (since June, 2009), I have already received 40k dividend from Stock and 40k interest from loan, all these “free cash” have provided less significant, but pretty sweet performance in my fund, however if you let time do its job, the reinvested interest will keep the snowball rolling, and the result might surprise you, this is what the compound interest is all about.

If the power of the compound interest can be shown in the following graph, say if you invested $1000 at year one.

Year	5%	10%	15%
1	1,000.00	1,000.00	1,000.00
5	1,215.51	1,464.10	1,749.01
10	1,551.33	2,357.95	3,517.88
15	1,979.93	3,797.50	7,075.71
20	2,526.95	6,115.91	14,231.77
25	3,225.10	9,849.73	28,625.18
30	4,116.14	15,863.09	57,575.45
35	5,253.35	25,547.67	115,804.80
40	6,704.75	41,144.78	232,924.82
45	8,557.15	66,264.08	468,495.02
50	10,921.33	106,718.96	942,310.82

The longer it took; the return for different compound interest will be very significant. This is why if you have met Warren Buffett in 1964 and bet $1000 on him, it will become $11million today, for he has achieved an average 22.3% per year! But nowadays in financial world, I constantly heard people say they can teach you to earn 100% in a year, even within a week! Well, I will let you be the judge.

I will be happy with 10% each year, but firstly, I need to achieve such target, secondly you must wait for a long time, anyone who want get rich by short term investment, he might succeed or fail in short term, but definitely will fail in long term.

Regards,

Calvin

「複利是世界第八大奇蹟。有誰理解它，賺到它...有誰不理解的...付給它。」 - 愛因斯坦

親愛的投資人,

我不知道愛因斯坦是否真正說過這句話，我甚至不確定最偉大的科學家之一如何處理他的個人財務;但這句已經成為金業被引用最多的話。

連續五個月下跌，市場終於在本月穩定下來，雖然它仍然下跌，但不會像之前那樣多，我今個月收到的股票利息抵償了下跌的損失。

從這個基金的起始（自2009年6月），我收到已經4萬的股票利息和4萬的貸款利息，所有這些「免費現金」在我的基金提供了不太顯著，但相當甜蜜的表現，但是如果你讓時間工作，其再投資利息將保持這個雪球滾動，而結果可能會讓你大吃一驚，這就是複利。

如果在複利的威力可以在下面的圖顯示, 如果你在第一年投資了$1000。

年份	5%	10%	15%
1	1,000.00	1,000.00	1,000.00
5	1,215.51	1,464.10	1,749.01
10	1,551.33	2,357.95	3,517.88
15	1,979.93	3,797.50	7,075.71
20	2,526.95	6,115.91	14,231.77
25	3,225.10	9,849.73	28,625.18
30	4,116.14	15,863.09	57,575.45
35	5,253.35	25,547.67	115,804.80
40	6,704.75	41,144.78	232,924.82
45	8,557.15	66,264.08	468,495.02
50	10,921.33	106,718.96	942,310.82

時間越長, 不同的複利會令回報率差距非常顯著. 這就是為甚麼如果你在1964年見到巴菲特而下注$1000在他身上，今天就會變成1千100萬，因為他每年平均實現了22.3％！但在現今的金融世界裡，我不斷地聽到有人說，他們可以教你如何在1年，甚至一個星期內賺取100％！我讓你自行判斷。

如我做到每年10％已經很高興，但首先，我需要實現這個目標，其次，你必須等待一段很長時間，誰想要靠短期投資致富，他短期內可能會成功或失敗，但長期必定會失敗。

MECHCalvin Fund Report Aug, 2015 – Holding Power and Purchasing Power持貨能力及購買力

Latest fund price: $1.7699 (-0.0773, 4.18%)

Total Market Value: $1,568,039.12

Total units: 885,935.9229 units

Dear Investors,

Hong Kong and China market plunged even further this month, it not just cancelled the rise in May, the index has reached new low this year, what a surprise! My wife and I have a joke between us, whenever she travelled with me, the stock market must fall, so she were not entirely happy I paid too much attention to the stock market when we were travelling, and I always make fun of her for the fact that she always bring bad luck to me (not just in investment, I tend to lose more in computer games when she is next to me, haha). So I have become smarter this time, in order for us to enjoy the honeymoon, I have sold most of my shares beforehand, seeing how the stock market behave in July and Aug is quite hilarious to me.

Yet it doesn’t mean I can prevent all the paper loses, my long term mutual fund holdings dropped quite dramatically, also I was too eager to re-enter the market result in buying too early (still not mature enough after 7 years!), never the less my fund still fall significant less than the market.

However I have more experience now to understand how important holding and purchasing power is, since no one can predict the market (although many have tried and still trying), when the shares is showing negative, it is essential to remain a holding power, meaning you can afford to take the temporary paper loss, the difference between rich and normal people is that rich people have all the time they need to wait for short loss to rebound, while normal people might sell and realized the loss either due to panic or actual needs of the money.

While purchasing power meaning rich people have money to buy more stocks at lower price, while others can only look at all the cheap stocks but can do nothing about it because they have ran out of cash, in the future I am hoping to expand both holding power and purchasing power in my fund management.

In 2014 I have realized a 100k profit, this year I have realized a 200k profit, I am expecting next year I should be realized 400k-500k of profit and I am confident and feel comfortable with the stocks I have chosen.

After some rest, I have start looking for more investors that fit my requirements again, 

1. Think long term

2. Have basic understand of my investment philosophy

3. Comfortable with volatility

My expectation is that my fund can grow to at least 5 million by 2020.

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

香港和中國市場在本月進一步暴跌，它不只是取消了上漲的五月份，該指數甚至已經達到了今年以來的新低，真是意外！我的妻子和我之間有個玩笑，每當她和我一起旅行時，股市一定下跌，所以她並不十分滿意我在跟她旅行時太關注股市，我總是取笑她總是給我帶來壞運氣（不只是投資，就是我玩電腦遊戲時，只要她是我的旁邊就經常輸，哈哈）。因此，我這一次變得更聰明，為了讓我們好好享受蜜月，在出發前我已經賣走了大部分股票，眼看著股市在七月和八月的行​​為是有點滑稽。

然而，這並不意味著我可以阻止所有的賬面損失，我長期持有的共同基金跌幅相當顯著，同時我太急於重新進入市場令我購買得太早（7年後還不夠成熟！） ，但我的基金下跌仍然比市場顯著少。

不過現在我擁有更多的經驗，明白持貨能力及購買力是多麼重要，因為沒有人能夠預測市場（雖然很多人已經嘗試, 而且仍在嘗試），當股價呈現負數，保持持貨能力是十分重要的，意思是你可以受得起暫時的賬面損失，富人和普通人之間的區別是，富人們有能力及時間等待短期的損失反彈，而普通人可能由於恐慌或實際錢的需要, 賣出手上的股票而導致實際損失.

購買力意味著富人有錢以更低的價格購買更多的股票，而其他人只能看著所有便宜的股票，但甚麼也做不到因為他們已經花光了錢，在將來我希望在我的基金管理上, 可以同時擴大持貨能力和購買力。

在2014年我實現了10萬的利潤，今年我已經實現了20萬的利潤，我期待明年我應該可以實現到30萬到40萬的利潤，我對自己選擇了的股票有信心感到安心。

經過一番休息，我又已經重新尋找更多附合我要求的投資者，

1. 思想長遠

2. 對我的投資理念有基本理解

3. 接受波幅

我期望我的基金能在2020年增長到至少500萬。

regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report July, 2015 – So called “New Normal” 所謂的「新常態」

Latest fund price: $1.8472 (-0.0493, 2.6%)

Total Market Value: $1,666,469.43

Total units: 902,177.0315 units

Dear Investors,

This month nothing much happen in my fund, I only had two trades (one buy and one sell), however the market is turning up side down, both China and Hong Kong have been slumped roughly 40% and 20%, meaning all the sky rocking in May have been canceled out. My fund merely dropped 2.6% because a lot of my stocks are defensive in nature (most of them are real estates), while few aggressive stocks, I only hold a little bit.

So this month I would like to talk about the topic most people care (but I don’t really care), the China & Hong Kong market. A-shares in China have been stay low for 7 years, when the financial world start to lost hope, it started to surge 100% within 6 months in the beginning of 2015, it is difficult for a single stock to rise 100% in 6 months, let alone a 9.7 trillion market! Even with the recent 40% drop, China market still has rose 64% since 2015.

The prime minister of China Xi Jinping called this is the “new normal” *LOLS*, to me new normal is still abnormal (something abnormal will not become normal only because it has a new name), there are rules in a free market (obviously China is a closed market), when the government want to control the financial world, rather let the “invisible hand” take control, they can achieve certain goals in short term, but harm the economy of the whole country in long run. I think Russia and many communist countries have proven why Karl Marx’s communism does not work in real world, yet China say: “Hey, let’s give it another try, with 1.4 billion people this time!”

“Socialism vs capitalism” is a big topic, however fundamentally it is “planned economy vs free market”. Planned economy meaning government control the supply and demand (stock market is only a tip of the iceberg), if the government decide this year we need to manufacture 2 billion jeans, even the people do not feel like wearing jeans, 2 billion jeans will be made, if it turns out no one want to buy any jeans, then the government launch a campaign to promote all citizen to wear jeans, they will tell you how wearing jeans is good for your health, or why you should wear jeans if you are a true patriot, it may sounds ridiculous, but this is exactly what is happening in China. 

The government set a goal (with details planning), and they ask the local government to achieve the goals no matter what, eventually they will have to fake the numbers, they claim their economic growth must remain 7% annually, let’s face it, who can guarantee an economic growth? No one, but what if the government insist? Then we have to make stuffs up. The China market is overvalued, even after the huge drop, so don’t be delusional, eventually the market must return to her “true normal”.

親愛的投資者，

這個月我的基金沒有甚麼大改變，我只做了兩筆交易（一買一賣），但市場已經反轉了，中國和香港股市已經分別下跌了約40％和20％，這意味著5月的大升已經被取消了。我的基金僅僅下跌了2.6％，因為我的很多股票都是防禦性質的（其中大部分是房地產），而一些高風險的股票，我只買了一點點。

所以，這個月我想談最多人關心（而我不關心）的話題，就是中國及香港市場。 A股在中國一直保持在低位連續7年，當金融世界開始對她失去希望時，它開始於2015年年初6個月內激增100％，在6個月內上升100％, 在單股已經是很困難的，更不用說一個9.7萬億的市場！即使在近期下跌40％，中國市場自2015年仍然上漲64％。

中國習近平首相稱這是「新常態」 * 大笑*，對我來說新常態仍是非常態(不正常的東西不會因為改了新名稱就變成正常)，自由市場有其規則（顯然中國是封閉市場），當政府想控制財政，而不讓“無形之手”掌握控制權，他們可以在短期內實現某些目標，但在長遠損害了整個國家的經濟。我認為俄羅斯和許多共產主義國家已經證明，為甚麼馬克思的共產主義在現實世界行不通，但中國仍說：「嘿，讓我們再試試看，這一次十四億人一起試!」

「社會主義VS資本主義」是一個很大的話題，但是從根本上是「計劃經濟 vs 自由市場」。計劃經濟意味著政府控制供應和需求（股市是只是冰山一角），如果政府說今年我們需要加工製作廿億條的牛仔褲，就是人民不怎樣喜歡穿牛仔褲，都會有廿億條牛仔褲會做出來，如果事實證明沒有人想要買任何牛仔褲，那麼政府將推動全民著牛仔褲的運動, 他們會告訴你牛仔褲對你的健康有多好，或如果你是一個真正的愛國者, 為甚麼你一定要穿牛仔褲, 聽起來是如此荒謬, 但這樣的事正在中國發生。

政府設定目標（詳細規劃），他們要求當地政府不管如何都要實現目標，結果他們最終將不得不製作假數，他們聲稱經濟增長必須每年保持7％，但誰可以保證經濟增長？沒有人，但如果政府堅持一定要發生？然後我們就必須要做數了。中國市場在巨大的下跌後仍然被高估，所以不要被她騙到, 最終市場都必須回歸到她的「真常態」.

regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2015 - When Left Wing Rises

Latest fund price: $1.8910 (-0.0889, 4.49%)

Total Market Value: $1,706,029.2

Total units: 902,177.0315 units

Dear Investors,

This month's report came in quite late because I intend to do so, I was waiting for the result of the Greece's bailout referendum, and i expected no matter how it turned out, they still have to cooperate with the European commission (because they have to), and now we all know people who own other's money have to return it one way or another (otherwise the whole financial system just won't work anymore).

I have paid a lot of attention the Greece's debt problem long time ago, it rated more importantly than the recently market correction (some say crash) happened in Hong Kong and China, but wait Calvin, shouldn't you be more aware of the HK market than Greece since most of your investments are in HK? No no no, it is not important what is happening here in Hong Kong, in a bull market, correction are normal, also necessary, people who got panic have no clue (or no experience) in the real financial world, I don't panic even it dropped 60%, let alone 20-30%, get over it please.

When I was at Istanbul during my honeymoon in May, I met a girl from Greece (I have to emphasize I met her with my wife together :P ) on a city boat touring trip, I took the chance and asked her view on the Greece's problem, she said she has always felt EU is taking advantage on this matter, that's why she voted Alexis Tsipras and hope for a change, Alexis Tsipras is considered to be an extreme left in politics, it occurs to me left wing never got much chance in a capitalism system unless some really bad things happened, traditionally socialist is not so good with the money, but they appear to care about the people more, while capitalist give people impression that they only care about money and is the cause of the suffering of the poor.

So when left wing rise, most likely they will use "will of the people", "social justice", "equality" to attract voters, wile when right wing rise, they will use "economic growth", "good economic data", "wealth increase", "better living quality" to attract people to vote for them. Yet in situation like Greece where majority of the people with a care free attitude, get used to borrowing money and have enjoyed long term benefits more than they have inputted, they can't go back to a tough life (which to most of the people consider as normal).

Frankly I don't want to get too rough on them, but sometimes I just cannot bear the fact that after borrowing, they can justify not returning the money because of corrupted politician, as the result turns out now, even the extreme left have to face the inevitable truth, going into default (not keeping a promise) is the no.1 taboo in finance. yet to be fair, I do not see Greece will turn out to be great unless they have a real solid reform, it means changing the lay back attitude, produce more than they can spend, and this is just my prediction, eventually they will be kicked out of the EU zone.

regards

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report May, 2015 - 6th Anniversary

Latest fund price: $1.9801 (+0.1003, 5.34%)

Total Market Value: $1,786,428.43

Total units: 902,177.0315 units

Dear Investors,

Sorry for the late fund report this month, I am travelling on a long hours train to Sweden from Copenhagen (Denmark), which finally gives me time to write, it will be the last part of my 3 weeks honeymoon before I go back to Hong Kong. The trip has been absolutely fantastic, apart from the transportation are quite expensive in Europe, we are enjoying it very much.

My fund is doing not bad too while I am away, It goes further 5% up, we are getting very close to 100% return, bear in mind I started my fund on 4/6/2009, this month is the 6th anniversary, I would say performance wise it is doing OK, but I am not going to rush it.

For the surprising good return single stock, remember it topped at $2.96 (+220%) last month, then I said if you think this is crazy, you have seen nothing yet? Guess what happened this month? it kept going from $2.5 to highest $8! This is like 750% return in 2 months! I originally owned 120k shares purchased at an average price of $0.935, last month I have sold

1. 40k shares @ $1.45

2. 40k shares @$2.5

This month I have sold further

3. 20k more shares @$4.4

4. 8k shares @$5.7

5. 4k shares @$7.2

I have already realized $210k profit on this stock while still holding 8k shares worth around $60k, this is absolutely fantastic! My cash reserve is at all time high and by the end of this year, I am expecting to collect another $240k of loan, which will make my fund flood with cash, I will need to start looking for other investment opportunity, and the investment amount will getting bigger and bigger for sure, this “baby” have started becoming a “boy” :)

Lastly attracted few pictures I took during the honeymoon, the views are stunning, getting further from home help me detach from the market, which is actually a good thing.

Regards,

Calvin

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/