MECHCalvin Fund 9th Anniversary Report 九周年紀念報告 - The Good, The Bad and the Ugly 獨行俠決鬥地獄門

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Jan Fund Price/ 1月基金價格: $2.0046
Feb Fund Price/ 2月基金價格: $2.0035
Mar Fund Price/ 3月基金價格: $1.9963
Apr Fund Price/ 4月基金價格: $1.9965

May (Latest) Fund Price/ 5月(最新)基金價格: $2.0210
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $2,243,912.79
Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,110,292.1752 Units

親愛的投資者, 

這個基金在6月已經成立了9年，因為我的生活愈來愈多責任，我已經決定了未來每年我只會發佈兩份基金報告：6月的周年紀念報告和1月的年度報告。不過我還是會每個月公佈基金價格，也計劃為這個基金建立一個網站，它將有兩個目的：以更透明的方式顯示資訊，同時它還將嵌入一個數據庫系統供投資者（你們）登入，這樣你就可以隨時查看你所擁有的基金單位數量以及它們的現值，設置一個系統將會長遠為我節省大量時間。 

無論如何，基金價格在9年內增加了102.1%，年複合增長率為8.13%，雖然大幅打敗市場的64.67%（年複合增長率5.69%），而且高於大部分的香港基金回報，但我還是有點失望，因為我預計回報應該會在9-11%左右。在這份週年紀念報告中，我將使用經典西部牛仔電影「獨行俠決鬥地獄門 (直譯：好人、壞人、小人)」來區分在過去9年中做出的三種投資決策，以及它們如何影響我的基金績效。 

《獨行俠決鬥地獄門》是1966年意大利西部史詩式電影「獨行俠三部曲」的第三部，也是最後一部，故事講述三個人物， 

金髮仔（由奇連·伊士活飾演）：好人，一個柔和，自信的賞金獵人 

天使眼（由李·雲·奇里夫飾演）：壞人，一個無情，無情，反社會的僱傭兵 

圖科（由伊萊·沃勒克扮演）：小人，一個滑稽狡猾，但又謹慎適應性強，口沒遮攔的墨西哥強盜 

他們必須共同合作去找一個隱藏的寶藏，同時又互相爭奪希望得到所有財寶。 

我覺得這是真實金融世界的戲劇性版本，所有上市公司都在市場上進行「淘金」之旅，唯一不同的是他們是否想與你分享利潤（好人），騙你的錢（壞人）和永遠把自己的利益放在首位（小人）。 在9年的經驗中，我已經經歷一切，而且整體取得了良好成果; 其中大多數都是平庸的，所以你必須從好人身上獲得最多，從壞人身上極速減少損失，並對小人保持耐性。現實不是理想中的遊樂場只有好人存在，實際上市場是一個瘋狂的西部，你必須學會並擅長生存。以下內容中我將向你展示過去9年投資生涯中，３種投資分類中的佼佼者。 

1. 好人：優秀的投資和良好的業績記錄等於令人難以置信的利潤 

PLUS 500 

這是我投資唯一一間在英國上市的公司，它是一家在英國的另類投資市場（AIM）上市的以色列公司，提供相對較新稱為差價合約（CFDs）的金融衍生工具，這種衍生工具允許客戶使用高槓桿買入和賣出世界上基本上任何有價值的東西，其簡單機制讓投機者從市場波動中賺錢，令公司從合約獲得利潤每年幾乎翻一倍，自2013年7月上市以來，其股價已經上漲了1700%！這是非常凶狠但它不止於此，它平均每年釋放10%的股息收益，令其收益能力近乎不真實，即使過去5年內兩次下跌50%，但並沒有阻止我抱著它的決心，早知我就把所有的錢都投入這只股票。它剛被批准在倫敦證券交易所的主要市場上市; 我相信它會保持這種勢頭。 

1373 國際家居零售 

日本城是香港最知名的日常商品零售連鎖店之一，其股價被嚴重低估，但其每年7%的股息是和味的，公司的財務狀況良好，有大量現金，只要它的價值被市場認可，我們也將從其股價中獲利。這是彼得。林區所說的教科書例子：「它越簡單，我就越喜歡。」人們喜歡複雜和火箭科學，但往往是「簡單無聊的公司」給你最好的回報。 

945 宏利金融－Ｓ 

在2008年金融危機期間，對財務一無所知的我進入了保險業，宏利是我選擇的第一間的保險公司（仍然在這裡工作），2009年我通過投資宏利的共同基金開始了這個基金，我注意到管理費並不便宜於是我決定自己學習如何交易股票，而宏利正是我人生中買入的第一隻股票（代這個基金買入）。香港宏利的股價從2008年金融危機前的$350高位大幅下跌到$62，2009年又回升至$200左右，但在2011年再次受到打擊跌到$82左右，當時我知道它超賣而且跌得太多，有一天我在辦公室內，無意中聽到身後來自其他地區的區域經理（他的辦公室離我的辦公桌非常近）在電話裡說了些甚麼：「我不確定我應該現在買它（宏利的股票）還是再等！」這個對話立刻告訴我，我現在就應該採取行動，我在網上買了1000股，因為我知道他是一個投資白痴，我的直覺告訴我，當群眾猶疑時我就應該採取行動，而這位經理的猶疑讓我有信心買下我人生中的第一股。它的價格再也沒有下降，並且提供每年4-5%極端穩定的股息（每年支付4次），唯一的缺點是加拿大政府會向你收取25%的股息稅（如果你能證明你不是加拿大公民的話，可以減少到15%，但你需要做大量的文書工作而我不想煩。） 

2. 壞人：希望從未做過的垃圾投資 

PLUS 500 

他們說：「你必須經歷失敗才能獲得成功。」在PLSU500在上市之前很久我已知它的存在，實際上我是它的客戶，試圖投機並輸了很多，這就是我理解為甚麼他們有如此強大的收益，許多像我這樣失敗的投機者就是他們成功的原因。毫無疑問，很少人可以在高槓桿衍生工具方面取得長期成功，而我就像大多數在投機中失敗的人一樣獲得了寶貴教訓。他們說：「如果你不能打敗他們，就加入他們」，衍生工具就像賭博一樣，獲勝的最佳途徑是停止賭博並投資最大贏家 - 賭場。這就是為甚麼我後來投資他們的股票而不是繼續成為愚蠢「賭徒」的原因。 

借貸 

在2013年，我的一個朋友參與了一個需要資金的商業項目，他來找我希望獲得一筆3個月共10萬的短期貸款，後來再額外加多10萬，而他自己已投入50萬資本，當時我一直認為我的投資組合中風險最高的是股票，結果？5年後貸款尚未歸還，我們同意在2020年前可以回收第二筆十萬，不幸的是頭十萬可能永遠取不回來，更糟糕的是，我賣掉了當時手持的宏利股票去借出這筆貸款。從那時起，隨著我對股票投資的信心增加，而投資組合中的商業貸款成份變得愈來愈小。

  

91 標準資源控股 

在2015年我有一些現金但沒有投資點子，有一個名叫周顯的金融「演員」在香港有點知名度，因為他會在報紙和雜誌上寫稿，我關注了他的facebook幾年但他不是那種你可以十分信任的人，但有時他會給你幾個驚喜的股票貼士。論壇上對他的評論很參差不齊，很多人批評他實際上是在使用一種名為「拉高出貨」的財技為仙股工作。 

如果你看過那套荷里活電影《華爾街狼人》，很多上市公司都是百分百的垃圾，它們上市的目的就是欺騙投資者，例如：要求那些半知名人士在報紙上談論或者利用媒體曝光，當股票受到關注時，它的價格會上漲（拉高）並導致更多人相信，因為多數持股者都是騙局背後的老闆，一但股票價格達到對早期持有者有利可圖的水平，他們就會開始拋售它們（出貨），導致股票價格股價暴跌，留下了許多震驚的投資者，他們永遠無法收回他們的資金。我對他很懷疑，所以我決定用一些錢來測試。 2015年他不停推薦一只名為標準資源的股票，聲稱其極具潛力，在最高峰時他每週都會談到這只股票。 

我閱讀了有關這家公司的一些數據，財務報告中有些可疑地方，但我很想測試最終我投資了（咳嗽......投機了）２萬５到這只股票，因為我知道即使它是垃圾我應該可以在「拉高階段」時退出。它迅速從$0.3上漲到$1.3，然後迅速回落到$0.5，我遲了加入派對但他在雜誌上非常肯定它會達到$2，所以我跳了進去，這真是非常糟糕的決定..... 後來它又反彈回到$1左右但是我並沒有把它賣掉，因為我太貪心那$2了，事實證明這家公司只是我們所謂的「老千股」，它從$1自由下跌到$0.3，慢慢再跌到到$0.1（對，是$0.1），現在只有$0.019，損失達98.1%！我沒有憤怒，因為它的價格圖表是一個完美的金融泡沫的教科書範例。我永遠不會出售這股作為我是一個白痴的提醒，至於那位作家我最近很少看到他寫股票，但是我們都知道「豹子不能改變它的斑點」，所以我仍然追蹤他（作為一種興趣），好的一面是這個教訓的成本十分低。 

3. 小人：暫時表現糟糕但正在等待它轉好，或過去表現很好但最後變壞了的投資 

3.1 過去表現很好但最後變壞了的投資 

1246 毅信控股 

到目前為止我最大的勝利，雖然我從這只股票中賺了很多錢，但同時也感到非常可惜，這家公司在打樁行業有正當業務，在我買了相當大的金額之前我做了很多關於這家公司的研究，股票在2013年上市後，它離開了其骨幹業務並將公司變成了一個金融騙局，價格從$0.5炒到$11！由於我在很早的階段已經買入了所以賺了很多錢，但我感到很遺憾管理層決定將高於平均水平的業務，變成一些由於貪婪和短視主導的金融騙局，坦白說我不介意等 10至15年才升10倍，因為這意味著它是可持續的，當一個企業可持續時，它可以走20倍30倍甚至100倍，現在價格已經下跌了99%到$0.09，公司更名為保集健康（為遠離過去及再吸引更多潛在受害者的典型伎倆）。 

3.2 暫時表現糟糕但正在等待它轉好的投資 

1431原生態牧業 

自2013年開始我就開始關注這隻股票，乳製品行業當時處於高峰期，大量農民因擁有乳牛而變得富裕，我發現這個行業為時已晚，我知道已經錯過了行業周期。我決定不在市場炙手可熱時買，而是等待行業周期下跌。在2014年我看到了機會（至少我以為是）買入了一些股票，通常乳業的周期為2 - 3年，所以我覺得我很安全，我預計行情會在2016-2017復甦。我錯了，由於某種原因乳業需要更長的時間來恢復，由於中央政府允許更多的進口奶粉，曾經富裕的農民突然發現他們的生意處於極端低迷的狀態，中國的牛奶變得便宜到農民寧願將牛奶倒在地上，因為根本沒有買家，牛的價格急劇下降，最終股價也是如此。如果他們的報告是正確的（財務報表中的欺騙行為在中國非常普遍），該公司應該價值45億，但其市值目前低於10億。很多人聲稱這家公司是老千公司，但是我看不到任何證據表明它是（或者不是），所以我仍然是50/50，我不會買入更多它的股票，但也不會出售已買入的，直到該行業回到正常水平，我們才會得到一個公平的估價。

  

1314 翠華 

翠華是香港一家著名的連鎖餐廳，類似於大快活和大家樂，我投資翠華的原因是因為我發現大快活和大家樂都已經在香港取得了成功，但在中國發展不了。翠華的品牌在中國大陸很受歡迎，但看起來它的股價並沒有真正反映出它的雄心，它從$6跌到$1，因為管理層有一些可疑的行為（一如既往），而且「自由行」限制令利潤率長期以來都不是太好看，而且在中國的擴張一直都進行得很慢，我不確定現實是否真的如此苛刻或只是管理層找藉口，但不管哪個情況我已經長期下注，有時需要10到20年才能建立一個品牌，明年我會再次審查。比較好的是，當股票在2013年從$3飆升至$6時，我已經賺了一筆。 

CellOS Pre-IPO 

我在2014年被邀請參加一個私人IPO，這是一家當時與IBM合作名為CellOS的公司。CellOS是一間通信行業的軟件解決方案公司，其客戶包括一些龐大的移動網絡運營商。2014年他們準備在美國上市，並宣稱其IPO規模將大於facebook（2014年），我的朋友有些聯繫，並被邀請購買一些上市前的股份，他也想分給我一些當時看起來將會變成不錯利潤的股票。你現在可能已經猜到的結果並不好，他們捲入了一些醜聞，有少數股東為公司的控制權而鬥爭，這筆交易變得糟透了，他們未能在美國上市，後來搬到新加坡經營而最新消息是，在2017年2月被報導問題是如此嚴重，公司可能無法生存，結果他們在2017年8月任命了一位新CEO，而現在2018年中期仍然沒有死掉。好的一面是，我和我的朋友實際上得到了股份，但是除非他們在世界某個公開市場上到市，否則我們永遠不會知道這些股票價值多少或可以賣出它們。這是一個幾乎每一天都會發生的典型投創風險故事，要麼你有幸中獎，要麼你的現金變成灰塵，在我的情況下，我仍然希望最終能夠獲得獎金。 

這是一份很長的報告，我想我最好停在這裡，如果你竟然看到尾我希望你喜歡我的故事（在某種程度上有趣？），在操作這個基金的9年裡其實還有很多故事可以講，但是我要把他們留到下次繼續，也許有一天我會出本書，誰知道呢？感謝您的耐心和信任，我將在2019年再次同您見面。 

最好的問候， 

Calvin 

p.s. 當然你可以用whatsapp及email: investment@mechcalvin.com隨時聯絡我關於你的投資

里程碑! 翻了一倍! Milestone! Two Fold!

親愛的投資者，

這不是基金報告，而是一個很短的更新。

一位投資者剛剛將50萬元投入了我的基金，使得我2018年籌款目標已經完成了50％，也使得該基金已經達到了一個重要的里程碑 - 總資產突破200萬。

但更重要的是，通過計算基金價格，我在發現基金價格在1月份已經突破了2元，使最早的投資者（例如我自己，哈哈）的資本已經翻了一倍。

之後會有更詳細的基金報告，只是想對那些信任我的人表示非常感謝 :)

最好的問候，
Calvin


Dear Investors,

This is not a fund report but a quick update.

An investor has just dumped 500k to my fund making my fundraising target in 2018 completed 50% already, this made the fund has reached an important milestone -> total assets breakthrough 2 million in total.

But there's more, by calculating the fund price, I had found out in January the fund price has also breakthrough $2, making the earliest investors (such as myself, haha) have two folded the capital.

A more details fund report will follow, just want to say a big thanks for those who trusted me :)

regards,
Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund 2017 Annual Report - 投資王道 Stocks for the Long Run

Jul Fund Price/ 7月基金價格: $1.9416
Aug Fund Price/8月基金價格: $1.9431
Sept Fund Price/ 9月基金價格: $1.9641
Oct Fund Price/ 10月基金價格: $1.9718
Nov Fund Price/ 11月基金價格: $1.9518

Dec (Latest) Fund Price/ 12月(最新)基金價格: $1.9685
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,680,705.47
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Fund vs Index Annual Performance

「投資多元化是無知的保護傘。如果你知道自己在做什麼，這是沒有意義的。」- 巴菲特

親愛的投資者，

我不確定哪個工作讓我更加想睡，計算基金價格還是寫這份年報，但是最後我們都必需面對「真相時刻」。不幸的是，基金價格還沒有達到2蚊，而2017年是這個基金第二次被指數打敗（首次是在2009年, 當年只有6個月的時間因為的創立日期是在2009年6月）。去年香港市場是全球表現最好的市場，上漲了36％，但我的基金只上漲了8.6％。

雖然我的整體表現仍然遙遙領先（96.85％比61.70％）, 但我對結果還是很失望。如果比較香港最好的香港股票基金，例如永明強積金的香港股票基金，十年回報率為96.56％，考慮他們會收取管理費，而我卻沒有，這個基金的表現確實優於香港最好的基金經理。

但是我應該開心嗎？不，一點也不應該，讓我告訴你為什麼。公共共同基金需要管理一至十億的資產，他們如何經營一個基金完全不同於一個只需要管理一百萬至一千萬的散戶。首先他們的選擇是非常有限的，當他們投資時，他們需要在市場上買賣數以百萬計的股票，這並不容易，他們也有法律限制，例如現金水平不能太高，所以當市場崩盤時，他們仍然需要持有股票而不能像普通投資者那樣出售成現金，即使他們可以這樣做也會有巨大劣勢，想像一下，如果你想以1元的價格在市場上拋售一百萬股，誰將會購買那個數量股票的？即使你成功賣出它們，當你在跌市完成賣出時，價格可能已經下降了30-40％。

對於一個像我這樣蚊型的「基金」來說，一個優秀的投資者應該能夠獲得25%以上的年化回報，我會引用巴菲特所說的話：「如果我今天只管理一百萬美元，或者一千萬， 我會完全投資。任何人認為資產多少不會影響表現的只是推銷。我所取得的最高回報率是在五十年代。我殺死了道瓊斯指數，你應該去看看那些數字，但當時我只是在投資花生。沒有很多錢是一個巨大的結構優勢，我想我可以幫你以一百萬美元每年賺50%。不，我知道我可以，我可以保證。」

我可以完全同意這個說法，因為即使我不是巴菲特，基金香港股票部分從2010年到2017年12月也已經實現了382%的漲幅，換算成年均回報率約為21.1%。

總體表現下降的原因是我剛開始這個基金時，沒有完全投資股票。事實上，我開始時只通過投資我公司（宏利）的共同基金，放貸，買一些黃金和比特幣，把些錢在這在那，只是因為當時我還沒有足夠的信心，所以我試圖「分散投資」。當我回頭看時，這是一個糟糕的主意，深深傷害了基金的表現。

有一本由傑諾米‧席格爾撰寫名為《投資王道》(台譯：長線獲利之道) 的經典投資書，我向所有初學者推薦，他用了很多歷史數據得出一個明確的結論：在所有的資產類別中，長期來看沒有任何東西可以戰勝股票，不是債券，不是黃金，不是貴金屬，不是共同基金，甚至不是通貨膨脹，但其風險低於把錢存入銀行！對於很多人來說，即使是那些所謂的專業人士也難以接受，因為讓我們面對現實，我們身邊有多少人在股市上損失了大量的金錢？很多！但用最簡單的形式來回答這個問題：他們要不是不是在投資，就是留得不夠久。

從1802年1月至2016年12月（215年的紀錄）
股票：$ 1 → $1,136,042（+ 113604200％，年化收益+ 6.7％）
債券：$1 → $1649（+ 164900％，年化收益+ 3.5％）
票據：$ 1 → $268（+ 26800％，年化收益+ 2.6％）
黃金：$ 1 →$2.97（+ 297％，年化收益+ 0.5％）
美元：$1 → $0.049（-95.1％，年化收益率-1.4％）

在我寫這份報告的時候，香港市場剛剛突破歷史高點，我預計基於幾個主要原因，這個市場還會繼續上漲。

1. 市盈率依然偏低，市盈率22以上的時候才會接近崩盤，現在的市盈率只有15左右

2. 暫時上漲只是由一些大公司支持，中小企業仍然滯後，當市場被高估的時候，即使是最垃圾的股票也會有機會發光發亮。

3.「恐慌指數」（波動率指數）仍然處於平均水平，這個指標反映的是市民是否擔心市場，當牛市達到頂峰，社會會感到無所畏懼，因為每個人都加入了派對並且賺了很多錢（賬面上），你會聽到大眾在街上談論股票，甚至細路會告訴你他們的選股是多麼的「出色」，每個人都會對股市有絕對的信心，但實際上這時候風險是最高的。目前仍然有很多聲音要求人們要小心，你還不能真正感受到熱度。

4.創下歷史新高後都會創造一個新篇章，達到新高時，很多人都擔心我們是否已經達到頂峰？但是從歷史上看，每一個新高都會比前一個更高，更不用說我們上一個新高已經是十年前了。如果我們回顧30年前，3000點已經是新高，我們今天已經升了10倍，預計到2047年我退休的時候，預料指數會再升10倍的想法並不瘋狂。

我預計2018年將會這個基金重要的一年，我知道股票和基金在第一季度表現將會很好，我也希望在2019年前再集資多50到100萬，不是因為我想今年投資更多，隨著市場上漲，風險也變得越來越大，所以今年要做的就是一點點地拋售股票，今年集資的錢是為了保證市場崩盤時，我會有足夠的現金在低位買入，當崩盤時才集資已經太遲，到時投資氣氛可能極度恐慌沒有人會理會我了。我也決定在2020年之前關閉除股票以外的所有部位，現在的我和2007年相比已經是一個不同的人了，我不會再用「多元化」來保護自己的無知。在下一個基金報告中，我會告訴你在過去的8年裡，有甚麼好的，壞的，醜陋的投資決策。

最好的祝福，
卡爾文

“Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” – Warren Buffett

Dear Investors,

I am not sure which job make me sleepier, working on the fund price or writing this annual report, but at the end of the day, we all need to face “the moment of truth”. Unfortunately the fund price still haven’t reached $2 yet, and 2017 is the second time the fund got beaten by the index (first time was back in 2009 when we only had 6 months since this fund was created in June, 2009). Last year HK market has the best performance in the world with 36% gain, while my fund has only gained 8.6%.

Neglect my overall performance is way ahead of the index (96.85% vs 61.70%); I am still quite disappointed with the result. Compare to the best fund Hong Kong equity fund, e.g. Sun Life MPF Hong Kong Equity Fund with a 10 years return of 96.56%, consider they charge management fee and I don’t, my fund do perform better than the best fund managers in Hong Kong.

However should I be happy? No, not at all, and I will tell you why. Public mutual funds are managing 100 to 1000 million USD of assets, how they run a fund is completely different than an individual that only need to manage 1-10 million. Firstly their options are very limited, when they invest they need to buy and sell millions of shares on the market which is not easy, also they have law restriction to keep the cash ratio at low level, so when the market crash, they still need to keep the stocks and unable to cash out like a normal investor, even if they can they will be at a huge disadvantages, imagine if you want to dump one millions of shares on the market at a price of $1, who is going to buy that amount of stocks? Even you succeed, by the time you sell them all in a falling market, the price have dropped 30-40% already.

For a “fund” as tiny as mine, an excellent investor should able to achieve 25%+ annualized return, I will quote what Warren Buffett have said: “If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.”

I can totally agree on that because even I am no Warren Buffett, the Hong Kong stock portion of my fund have already achieved 382% gain from 2010 to Dec, 2017, which translate to roughly 21.1% annualized return. 

What make the overall performance drop is that when I first started this fund, I wasn’t fully invested in stock. In fact I started learning by investing in my company’s (Manulife) mutual funds, money lending, buy some gold and bitcoin, put the money here and there, only because I wasn’t confident enough back then, so I tried to “diversify”, when I look back now it was such a bad idea and it hurts the fund’s performance deeply.

There is a classic investment book written by Jeremy Siegel named “Stocks for long run” I recommend to all beginners, he used many historically data to draw out one clear conclusion: in all asset classes, nothing can beat stocks in long run, not bonds, not gold, not precious metals, not mutual funds, not even inflation, but its risk is lower than putting your money in bank! To many people even those so-called professionals have trouble accepting this, because let’s face it, how many people around us have lost tons of money in the stock market? A lot! To answer this question in the simplest form: Neither they were not investing, nor they have not stayed long enough.

From Jan 1802 – Dec 2016 (record of 215 years)
Stocks: $1 → $1,136,042 (+113604200%, annualized return +6.7%)
Bonds: $1 → $1649 (+164900%, annualized return +3.5%)
Bills: $1 → $268 (+26800%, annualized return +2.6%)
Gold: $1 → $2.97 (+297%, annualized return +0.5%)
Dollar: $1 → $0.049 (-95.1%, annualized return -1.4%)

The Hong Kong market have just breached the historical high as I am writing this report, and I expect it will continue to go up base on few main reasons.

1. The P/E is still quite low, the price earnings ratio is only around 15 now when 22 is consider as high before the market collapse

2. The rises are only backed up those big companies, the medium and small companies are still holding back, from my experience when the market is overvalued, even the most rubbish stocks will get his chance.

3. The “fear index” (volatility index) is still average, this index reflect whether the general public worry about the market, when the bull market has reached its peak, the society will feel they have no fear because everyone has joined the party and made a lot of money (on paper), you hear everyone talk about stocks on the street, even the kids will tell you how “good” they are in stock picking, everyone will have absolute confident in the stock market but in reality the risk is at its highest. At the moment there are still a lot of noises asking the people to be careful, you can’t really feel the heat just yet.

4. A chapter is created after breaking through the historical high, when a new high is reached many people fear has we reached the top already? But from history each new high will go much further than the previous one, not to mention our previous one was 10 years ago. If we look back in 30 years ago, 3000 points was the new high, we have already 10 folded today, it is not crazy to predict when I retire in year 2047 the index will be 10 folded again.

I expect 2018 will be a changing year for this fund, I know the stocks and fund will perform well in the first quarter, I also hope to raise another 500k to 1 million before 2019, not because I want to invest more this year, it is getting risker and risker as the market rises, so what I am going to do this year is to sell off the shares little by little, the money I receive this year is to ensure when the market crash, I will have enough cash to buy low, it will be too late to raise fund when the market crash, the investment atmosphere might be so fearful everyone will just ignore me. I have also decided to close all positions other than stocks by year 2020, because I am a different man compare to 2007 now, and won’t use diversification as the protection against ignorance. In the next fund reports, I will show you the good, the bad and the ugly of my investment decisions in the last 8 years.

Regards,
Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Nov, 2017 – 泡沫和狂熱 Bubble and Mania

親愛的投資者，

季節祝福，已經接近2017年底，對於正在學習成為一個父親的我來說2017年是混亂的一年，我還未有時間來計算最新的基金價格，但在新年之後我會寫一個年度報告總結一切。

不過今天我還是可以做一些「懺悔」，2017年有兩個名字在投資界被過分提及，他們是就是騰訊和比特幣。

截至目前，騰訊股價已經升了近一倍，在我寫這篇報告時，騰訊股價已經從$190漲到了$400左右。另外雖然比特幣是一個高度投機性的泡沫，從年頭到現在已經差不多漲了二十倍，價格由1000美元左右差點升到20000美元，但如果我們把時間延伸到比特幣被發明的2009年時，當時每個比特幣的價格只有0.003美元左右，意味著它已經升了660萬倍！這個層次在金融史上從來沒有發生過，在前互聯網時代也是絕對不可能的，當我們談到資產泡沫時，例如1637年的鬱金香狂熱之類是數十倍的升幅。世界無法想像的東西可以漲100倍，更何況600萬倍！許多重份量的投資大師已經多次警告，比特幣就像任何泡沫最終一樣會回歸到它所屬的地方 – 接近零。

無論如何，我對你們有一個好消息，一個壞消息，我會從好消息開始，其實幾年前我用基金的錢買了騰訊和比特幣，而壞消息是 - 買了他們不久之後就賣掉了...

比特幣有點情有可原，回到2013年11月，我已經知道這是一個泡沫，當時「投資」（更像投機）500美元到加密貨幣，起初我沒有買比特幣，而是買了另一種當時流行的加密貨幣叫做萊特幣，那些相信加密貨幣的人說比特幣就像黃金，而​​萊特幣就像白銀一樣，那時候比特幣已到達100美元左右，我認為這個價格太高了，所以我投資了大約200個萊特幣（每個大概2美元）。在2013年，比特幣經歷了第一次狂熱，比特幣價格從80美元上漲到1000美元以上，隨著加密貨幣流行，我的萊特幣也在10天內迅速從2美元跳到了55美元，我不知道升勢會維持多久，所以我沒有出售它，有一天我睡醒，泡沫破裂了，比特幣價格崩潰，每個人都在市場拋棄他們的加密貨幣，比特幣價格在一個月內下降了90％，我的萊特幣跟隨自由下跌，幸運的是我在11美元左右退出，並獲得5倍的利潤。過山車般的極端波動性另我對加密貨幣失去了興趣，所以我在120美元左右轉了去比特幣，然後把它們都賣掉了，我當時認為狂熱已經結束了。我完全錯了，如果我保留了它們，今天500美元就會變成8萬美元。

我說這是可以原諒，因為我沒有玩這個音樂椅的遊戲，我無法為比特幣估值，也無法預測它的價格，而且，這一切都感覺像贏彩票，而不是在風險計算後進行投資。其實我研究了很多關於加密貨幣的技術和經濟理論來做出這樣的結論（我從來不會根據自己的感受做決定），不管價格如何瘋狂，塊鏈技術將會改變世界，但是我不想說太多令你感到沉悶的理論，所以我只是告訴你們這個故事。如果可以把這麼多錢加進基金實在是不錯的，但這是一場危險的遊戲，所以就是這樣...

反之騰訊有點不可原諒，2014年9月份在每股$125左右買了一些它的股票，幾個月後我把它們賣了，因為我覺得它被高估了，即使今天騰訊的總市值幾乎和面書一樣，收益只有臉書的一半，但它至少是一家公司，我可以花時間做一些估價，可是我沒有。如果我不賣它，今天會有相當不錯的利潤。

正如牛頓曾經說過的:「我可以計算天體的運動，卻算不出人性的瘋狂。」如果市場上有甚麼熱手的東西，它只會變得越來越熱，直到達到一個荒謬的地步。我們可能錯過了一些機會，但是我的「安全」戰略在過去避免了許多損失，我將來有機會會解釋更多。

無論如何，就算無視我所做的「過錯」，基金的成績其實不壞，基金所持有的基金和股票在香港市場表現相當不錯，我覺得可能已經達到每單位$2，但不要拿我的話作準，直到我在聖誕節假期時完成所有沉悶的數學計算。

祝聖誕快樂，新年快樂

卡爾文

Dear Investors,

Season's Greetings, it is near the end of 2017, 2017 was a mess for me learning to be a father, I haven’t got time to calculate the latest fund price yet, but I will write an annual report to sum up everything after the new year.

However I still have something to “confess” today, in 2017 two names are overly mention in investment world, they are tencent and bitcoin.

Tencent is overvalued stock has almost doubled year to date, it’s stock price has risen from $190 to around $400 as we speak. While bitcoin is a highly speculative bubble that has almost twenty folded year to date, from around $1000 to just below $20000, but if we extend the timespan back to 2009 when it was first invented, it was only around $0.003 per bitcoin, meaning its price has increased 6.6 million times! This never happens in the history of finance and definitely not possible in pre-internet age, when we speak of an asset bubble, we are talking about ten folded in couple years such as the tulip mania back in 1637. The world could not imagine something can rise 100 times, let alone 6 million times! Many respectful investors have warned multiple times that bitcoin was like any bubble it will go back to where it belongs – close to zero.

Anyway, I have one good news and one bad news for you guys, I will start with good news, I have bought both tencent and bitcoin with the fund money couple years ago, and the bad news is – I have sold them not long after I bought them...

Bitcoin was a bit forgivable because I knew it is a bubble from day one, back in Nov, 2013, I have “invested” (more like speculate) USD500 into cryptocurrency, at first I didn’t buy bitcoin, I have bought another popular cryptocurrency at that time called litecoin, those who believe in cryptocurrency said bitcoin is like gold while litecoin is like silver, at that time bitcoin is around USD$100 and I thought the price is too high for my little speculative money. I have invested around 200 litecoins (around $2 each). Back in 2013, bitcoin experienced its first mania, bitcoin price increased from $80 to over $1000, hopping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, my litecoins also quickly jumped from $2 to $55 in less than 10 days, I didn’t know how long I need to wait so I didn’t sell it, one day after I woke up, the bubble burst, the bitcoin price crashed and everyone just dumping their coins, bitcoin price dropped 90% within a month and my litecoin follow the free falling, luckily I managed to exit around $11 and made 5 times profit. After the roller coaster I have lost interested due to its extreme volatile nature, I switched to bitcoin when it was around $120 then sold them all, and I suspect the mania is over. I was so wrong, if I have kept them, the USD 500 would have become USD 80000 today.

I said it was forgivable because I didn’t play the music chair game, I could not value bitcoin, I could not predict its price and moreover, it all felt like winning a lottery rather than making an investment after some risk calculation. Well, there are a lot of technical and economic theories regarding to cryptocurrency I have studied to make such conclusion (I never make a decision based on my feelings), the block chain technology is going to change the world regardless of the craziness of its price, however I don’t want to bored you to death so I just told you the story. It would have been nice to added so much more money into the fund however it was a dangerous game to play, so that’s that…

Tencent was a bit unforgivable, I bought some of their stock back in Sept, 2014 around $125 per shares, but later I sold them because I felt it was overvalued, even today Tencent’s total market capital is almost same as facebook, its earning is only half of facebook, but at least it is a company I can spend time to do some valuation, yet I didn’t. Again if I didn’t sell it, it will have a pretty nice profit today.

As Isaac Newton once said, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” If something is hot on the market, it tends to go hotter and hotter until it reached a ridiculous point. We might have missed some opportunity, but my “play safe” strategy has avoided many losses and I will explain more in the future.

Anyway, neglect what I have “missed”, the fund is not doing bad at all, the fund and stocks I hold perform quite well along with the HK market, but I have a feeling it has already reached $2 per unit due to the HK market’s performance, don’t take my word for it yet until I finish all the boring math during the Christmas holiday.

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2017 – My best "Investment" 我的最佳「投資」

Mar Fund Price/ 3月基金價格: $1.8856

Apr Fund Price/ 4月基金價格: $1.9031

May Fund Price/ 5月基金價格: $1.9255

Jun (Latest) Fund Price/ 6月(最新)基金價格: $1.9052

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,626,685.75

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

親愛的投資者，

好久不見！自上次報告以來已經有一段時間了；你有想過我一直在做甚麼嗎？是否拿了你的錢然後走了？哈哈

我的最後一份報告是在3月份寫的，但是當我要寫下一個報告時，我最好的「投資」已經在4月2日到了世界 - 我的兒子智仁　:)

毫無疑問，我成為一個更快樂和更繁忙的人，很多事情需要學習，更不用說無數不眠之夜，100天後，我終於可以回到正軌，所以我決定寫一個關於這個基金的短更新。

我花了很多時間讓人（在我的基金報告和YouTube視頻）中了解「投資」的真正定義，人們基於自己的想像力或一廂情願的想法將它與投機和許多其他無關的事物混為一談。我可以再次明確定義，「投資」的定義是獲得具有價值的「資產」，知道他們會升值。在獲得的過程中，你必須犧牲其他的東西，例如時間和金錢，這就是為什麼巴菲特稱投資的能力也是「延緩滿足的能力」。他當然是在談論金錢，但它完全描繪了生活中的其他方面。有一些實驗研究孩子的行為如何影響他們的未來，其中一個測試將他們放在房間裡，給予每個人一粒糖果，並告訴他們，如果他們不吃那粒糖果，5分鐘後他們將被給予另一粒。我們都知道會發生怎麼事，８成的孩子不能忍受誘惑，吃那粒糖果。這個實驗告訴我們延遲滿足的能力在人類是罕見的，我們的人性都想立即得到滿足。

大多數人投資不成功，不是因為他們不夠聰明，是因為他們沒有耐心等待，同樣越來越少的人願意有孩子（特別是在已發展國家），是因為他們不希望孩子「摧毀他們的生活方式」或更好的藉口 - 我不想讓他們「受苦」，因為老實講，沒有人知道這些「投資」會如何變成如何，所以他們寧願不冒險，因為犧牲是明確的，但獎勵卻不是。

當朋友問我是否有計劃生孩子時，我總是說我從來沒有想過要控制結果，就像我沒有「計劃」購買我的第一隻股票，也許我對我的未來有點樂觀，但不代表我不需要面對困難的時期，過去很難，現在很難，將來也一定很難，但一旦你了解「投資」的價值，你就會有勇氣越過它。作為回報，我兒子的「升值」不是為了給我更多的錢（我已經有用錢的投資來解決我的錢問題），而是令他在這個世界成為一個有價值和愛的人。 我認為很多人不明白「你種的是甚麼，收的也會是甚麼」，人們種下檸檬的種子，卻希望獲得蘋果，他們用錢「投資」在需要愛的人 (家庭)，反之他們將感情給予只有金錢相關的東西上（工作）。

回到投資，每個人都可以看到香港股市正在上漲，人們會問我現在應該買嗎？我的回答總是這個問題在2-3年前就應該問了，股市已經不再便宜了，其實我甚至賣了一些資產來鎖定過去2-3年的利潤，希望今年能打破2元的紀錄，如果今年沒有，最終都是會打破的

最好的祝福，

卡爾文

Dear Investors,

Long time no see! It has been awhile since my last report; have you wondering what I have been doing? Have I taken your money and run away? Haha

My last report was written in Mar, however when I am about to write the next one, my best “investment” has come to the world on the 2nd of April – My son Luke :)

No doubt I have become a happier and busier man, a lot of things need to learn, not to mention countless sleepless nights, after 100 days I can finally get back on track, so I decide to write a quick update about this fund for you guys.

I have spent a lot of time to let people (in my fund reports and youtube videos) understand the true definition of “investment”, people confuse it with speculation and many other unrelated things base on their own imagination or wishful thinking. I can make the definition to be clear one more time, the definition of “investment” is obtain and “assets” that has value, knowing it will appreciate. In the process of obtain, you have to sacrifice other things, e.g. time & money, that’s why Warren Buffett also called the ability of invest as “the ability to delay gratification”. Of course he is talking about money, but it is perfectly described other areas in life. There were experiments to research how kids behavior will affect their future path, one of the tests are put them in the room and give each of them a candy, and tell them if they do not eat that candy, they will be given another one 5 mins later. We all knows how it goes, 80% of the kids cannot bear the temptation and eat that candy. This experiment tells us the ability to delay gratification is rare in human, our nature all want to be satisfied immediately.

Most of the people fail in investment not because they are not smart enough, it is because they do not have the patient to wait, similarly less and less people willing to have kids (esp. in developed countries) are because they do not wish children to “destroy their lifestyle” or with better reason – I don’t want them to “suffer”, because let’s face it, no one knows how these “investment” will turn out so they rather not to take the risk, it is true the sacrifice are definite, but the rewards are not.

When my friends asked me was it planned to have children, I always say I never thought of to control the outcome, just like I didn’t “plan” to buy my first stock, maybe I am a bit optimistic about my future, not that I do not need to face difficult time, it was difficult, it is difficult now and it will be difficult in the future, but once you acknowledge the value in the “investment”, you will have the courage to get through it. In return, the “appreciation” of my son is NOT to give me back more money (I already have money investment to solve my money problem), but to make him become a valuable man and love in this world. I think a lot of people do not understand “you get what you give”, people plant lemon seeds and expects to get apple, and they “invest” in love and expect money in return or vice versa, so they treat people that require love with money (family), or give their love to things that are money related (career).

Back to the investment, everyone can see HK stock is going towards an upward trend, people ask me should they buy now? My answer always be you should have asked 2-3 years ago, the stock markets aren’t cheap anymore today, it can go up as well as down, in fact I have sold some of the assets to lock the profits in the last 2-3 years, I hope we can break the $2 mark this year (we are so close), if not this year, eventually it will.

Best regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2017 – Did you know? 你知道嗎?

Jan Fund Price/ 一月基金價格: $1.8461
Feb (Latest) Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8923
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,615,621.05
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

CHINNEY INV  建業實業（00216.HK）

Dear Investors,

Welcome to the year of the rooster, the year has a pretty neat start for me, looks like we will be two folded soon, last time we were this close was on the May, 2015, the hype train carried my fund to $1.9799, but the hype was very short lived (false bull). Last month thanks to a stock CHINNEY INV (00216.HK), the fund had a significant increase because its mother company has sold a real estate investment worth 3.1 billion, the estimated profit will be 2.2 billion! (I have no idea how to they can take 70% of the profit), this company will be shared at least 700 million of profit when the market value of the whole company was only around 900 million before the news was announced, the price immediately jumped from $1.6 per shares to $2.2 and now is at $2.8, I believe when the company reach its true value, the fair price should be around $4-5 per shares. Well, what can I say except I felt like hitting another jackpot? This is totally unexpected, I have bought it for more than a year, it has dropped more than 30% at one point, but this is investment, you got to have a very strong believe in your analysis, and then be extreme patient. I think a lot of people fail either they are not logical or they are not patient. So this letter is some “did you know” facts for you. Did you know?

1. 30% of people in Hong Kong is actively involved in stock market, one of highest population % involve in stock investment cities in the world
2. The Hang Seng Index has increased 756% from 1987-2016 (from 2568 points to 22000 points)
3. Over 80% of the stock “investors” end up losing money (you wonder why how is it possible when the market has increased 7 times, all they need to do is do nothing but wait)
4. Most of the “investors” have no idea what company they are investing in except the names and stock numbers
5. Hang Seng Index has an average 25% simple annual return (or 7.42% compound annual return) in the last 30 years
6. The highest % gain happened in 1993 (115.67%), 1999 (68.8%) and 2009 (52.02%)
7. If you skipped year 1993 only in the last 30 years, your 756% gain is reduce to 508.36%; if you skipped year 1999, your gain is reduced to 487.43%; if you skipped year 2009, your gain is reduced to 465.18%; if you skipped all 3 years only, you are now sitting at a -52.26% loss.

I guess this explain a lot why people is not doing so well in stock, firstly they try to time the market, they make (or listen to so-called “professional”) to prediction how the market will perform, hoping to “buy low sell high”. The fact is that no one has the crystal ball to predict anything, if so my career as an insurance agent is a dead end. Secondly they only want to participate in investment when everyone else does, have you wondered why 1993, 1999, 2009 are the years that achieved highest gain? 

Back in 1993, Tsing Tao Beer is listed in HK, everyone got on the hyped train that the capital from China is going to flood Hong Kong, the index dropped 31% the year after; in 1999 it was the internet bubble, any company added a “.com” will have their share price ten folded in the next couple months, did it make sense? Apparently many idiots think so. The indexed dropped 50% in the next 3 years. And 2009 is after the financial crisis when USA decided to save the major banks, but the actual drive was back in 2006-2007, where 86% gain was achieved in 2 years before the crisis, everyone knows what happened in 2008. 

I think you can do very well if you entered the market correctly before everyone else, but can you? I think the truth is that a lot of people get on board in the middle or even at the end of the rise, they are sitting on 5-7% of profit and refuse to leave, than experience a 60-70% drop later on. This behavior keep repeating because human is like that, drive by greed and fear, they just unable to sit down and wait patiently, they want to know what the next trend in the next 2 months, 2 weeks even 2 days! I hope this can bring some insight to you

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. Chinney Inv is stock introduced by an Hong Kong investment bloggers, so I must give him some credit for this amazing discovery, you can check out his blog through this link also: http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

親愛的投資者，

歡迎來到雞年，這一年我有一個相當不錯的開始，看來我們應該很快到達雙倍回報，上次我們這樣接近是在2015年5月，炒作的風氣將我的基金推到$1.9799，但炒作是非常短暫的（假牛市）。上個月由於股票建業實業（00216.HK），基金有了顯著的升幅，因為其母公司已經出售了價值31億的房地產投資，預計利潤將是22億！ （我不知道他們如何能拿到70％的利潤），這家公司將共享至少7億的利潤，當消息宣布之前，整間公司的市價只有大約9億左右，價格立即從每股$1.6跳升至$2.2，現在為$2.8，我相信當公司達到其真實價值時，公平價格應該在每股$4-5左右。那麼，除了我覺得中了另一個大獎外我還能說什麼？這是完全出乎意料的，我買了一年多，它一度跌了30％以上，但這就是投資，你必須有一個非常堅定的分析，然後是極端的耐性。我認為很多人失敗了，不是他們不合邏輯，就是沒有耐性。所以這封信會給你講一些“你知道嗎”的事實。你知道嗎？

1. 香港有30％的人積極參與股票市場，是世界上股票投資率最高的城市中之一
2. 恆生指數由1987年至2016增加756％ （從2568點升至22000點）
3. 超過80％的股票「投資者」輸錢收場（你奇怪這有甚麼可能當市場上升了7倍，他們需要做的就是甚麼都不做, 除了等待）
4. 大多數「投資者」不知道他們投資的公司，除了名稱和股票號碼
5. 恆生指數在過去30年的年收益率平均為25％（或年復合年增長率為7.42％）
6. 最高百分比升幅發生在1993年（115.67％），1999年（68.8％）和2009年（52.02％）
7. 如果你在過去30年中跳過1993年，你的756%的收益減少到508.36%；如果你跳過1999年，你的收益減少到487.43%；如果你跳過2009年，你的收益減少到465.18%；如果你跳過這3年，你現在得到-52.26％的損失。

我想這解釋了為甚麼人們總是輸，首先，他們試圖補捉市場，他們（或聽所謂的「專業人士」）預測市場的表現，希望「低買高賣」。事實是，沒有人有水晶球預測任何東西，如果是這樣，我作為保險代理人的職業就沒有前途了。其次，他們只想在所有其他人都參與投資時才參與，你想知道為什麼1993年，1999年，2009年是最高增長的年份？

1993年青島啤酒在香港上市，每個都希望分一杯羹，中國的資金都要湧入香港，恆生指數第2年跌了31%；1999年是互聯網泡沫，任何公司增加了一個“.com”，其股價將在未來幾個月上升１０倍，這樣合常理嗎？顯然很多白痴認為合理。指數在未來3年下降50％。2009年是金融危機後，美國決定拯救主要銀行，但實際驅動力應該回到2006 - 2007年，在危機發生前兩年實現了86％的增長，之後大家都知到2008年發生甚麼事了。

我想如果你在其他人之前正確進入市場你可以做得很好，但你能嗎？我認為事實是，很多人在中間或甚至結束時上升才加入，他們得到利潤的5-7％後拒絕離開，之後就要經歷60-70%的跌幅。這種行為不斷重複，因為人類是這樣，被貪婪和恐懼所驅動，他們就是無法坐下來耐心等待，他們想知道未來2個月，2週甚至2天後的趨勢！我希望這可以帶給你一些洞察。

問候，

卡爾文

p.s. 建業實業是由一位香港投資博客作者介紹的，所以我必須將這個驚人的發現歸功於他，你可以通過這個鏈接查看他的博客：http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

Hang Seng Index 1987-2016

Year	Beginning Price	Ending Price	Gain or Loss	Percent Gain or Loss
1987	2568.3	2302.8	-265.5	-10.34%
1988	2302.8	2687.4	384.6	16.70%
1989	2687.4	2836.6	149.2	5.55%
1990	2836.6	3024	187.4	6.61%
1991	3024	4297.3	1273.3	42.11%
1992	4297.3	5512.4	1215.1	28.28%
1993	5512.4	11888.4	6376	115.67%
1994	11888.4	8191	-3697.4	-31.10%
1995	8191	10073.4	1882.4	22.98%
1996	10073.4	13451.5	3378.1	33.53%
1997	13451.5	10722.8	-2728.7	-20.29%
1998	10722.8	10048.58	-674.22	-6.29%
1999	10048.58	16962.1	6913.52	68.80%
2000	16962.1	15095.53	-1866.57	-11.00%
2001	15095.53	11397.21	-3698.32	-24.50%
2002	11397.21	9321.29	-2075.92	-18.21%
2003	9321.29	12575.94	3254.65	34.92%
2004	12575.94	14230.14	1654.2	13.15%
2005	14230.14	14876.43	646.29	4.54%
2006	14876.43	19964.72	5088.29	34.20%
2007	19964.72	27812.65	7847.93	39.31%
2008	27812.65	14387.48	-13425.17	-48.27%
2009	14387.48	21872.5	7485.02	52.02%
2010	21872.5	23035.45	1162.95	5.32%
2011	23035.45	18434.39	-4601.06	-19.97%
2012	18434.39	22656.92	4222.53	22.91%
2013	22656.92	23306.39	649.47	2.87%
2014	23306.39	23605.04	298.65	1.28%
2015	23605.04	21914.4	-1690.64	-7.16%
2016	21914.4	22000.56	86.16	0.39%

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
Subscribe to Information登記接收資訊: https://goo.gl/forms/ihUd6Fu0eC8CNFc22
Facebook: http://facebook.com/mechcalvinfund
Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Youtube (New): http://youtube.com/mechcalvinfund
Youtube (Legacy): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB
Email: investment@mechcalvin.com

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2016 – What a year… 這一年真的是…

Nov Fund Price/ 十一月基金價格: $1.8618

Latest Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8126

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,589,655.96

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Statistic 統計數據

*Collect and Withdraw are the amount in and out from investors
**Income and Expense represent done deals of this fund (brought and sold assets)

*流入及流出是指投資者的資金

**收入及支出指基金已完成的交易 (已買入及賣出資產)

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year, finally I have finished all the statistic work and can sit down to write something. As title described, 2016 was full of surprises and disappointments. 

Let’s start with this fund, the fund price has increased from 1.7689 to 1.8126 (2.47%) only this year, while the HS index has increased 86.16 points (0.39%) only (from 21949.4 to 22000.56), the assets didn’t perform as I expected, for example I have taken 56k profit from stocks in 2014, a massive 330k in 2015, but in 2016, I have only made 16k, which is even lower than my monthly wage, haha. Of course I am talking about sold stocks, but even consider unsold assets, they didn’t perform well, most of the incomes (2.47%) are from stocks dividends and interest from loans, the price of the stocks and funds are falling apart.

To save some face, I guess I can give credit to my “luck” that I sold all foreign currencies in the beginning of the year, esp. CNY, GBP and EUR, and JPY in the middle of the year. When I say luck I really mean it, the reason I sold my GBP and EUR not because I can “foreseen” the outcome of BREXIT, in fact I didn’t feel strongly about the referendum, nor my crystal ball told me the great falling of CNY and uprising USD, I sold GBP and EUR mainly because I need to convert those currencies to buy stocks, most of these money are left from my honeymoon in 2015, and my Japan trip for a friend’s wedding in Feb have made me buy more Yen at a very cheap rate, after the trip I didn’t want to keep them so I sold all of them at a higher rate and earned a few bucks. I did have a strong feeling to sell all the RMB, because let’s face it, nothing can go up and up for many years, it is funny to see how the Chinese government say they have little room to go down. One thing I have learnt over the years in investment is that, you don’t need to worry about a market, until the government tells you not to worry about it.

Anyway there were also some good surprises in 2016, e.g. the gold and few good stocks picks, the stocks HK:853 and HK:8216 have 50% and 30% profit, I have sold both of them, yet their % in the portfolio is so little it didn’t make a huge contribution to the overall performance. The stocks I heavily invested barely moved, e.g. HK: 1431 from $0.475 to $0.51 (7%), even though another stock HK:1373 (aka Japan Home in HK) has risen from $1.14 to $1.62 (+30%), it still hasn’t reached my average purchasing price, so I guess I have to be more patient.

Again I have to emphasis we are unable to predict the precise timing of the rise and fall, what I am doing to keep buying in good assets that will eventually produce a good outcome, otherwise we are doing speculation rather than investment. What investment all about is to keep buying good assets, and the definition of good assets IS NOT that will give you immediately rise of its price in a very short period, the definition of a good asset is to generate stable cash inflow to the company (and dividend to the shareholders), it may perform poorly in price in short run, but in long term it will definitely have a significant rise in stock price also. 

You can see from the statistic I practice what I preach, the money I spend on buy assets are much more than money I got from selling (in 2016 I have cashed out 190k but have spent 327k), some might ask, where the extra money comes from to support you to spend more? It is the magic of investment, the cash (dividend, interest, new investors) keep generating from your assets (stocks, funds, loans) should reach an equilibrium that you do not need to put in new money anymore, meaning the cash generating from the assets you own will become self-sustain, start rolling like a snowball and eventually get bigger and bigger by itself (That is why the name of the biography of Warren Buffett is called snowball). Even said that, I do hope 2017 will have a better outcome.

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

新年快樂，我終於完成了所有的統計工作，可以坐下來寫點東西。如標題所言，2016年充滿驚愕及失望。

讓我們從這個基金開始講起，今年基金價格只從1.7689增加到1.8126（2.47％），而HS指數只增加了86.16點（0.39％）（從21949.4點到22000.56點），資產沒有按我預期表現，例如我在2014年只從股票已經套現了5萬6千的利潤，在2015年大規模增加至33萬，但在2016年只有一萬六，甚至比我的月工資還低，哈哈。當然我只是指已經賣出的股票，但即使考慮未售出的資產，他們的表現都不佳，大部分收入（2.47％）來自股票股息和貸款利息，股票和基金的價格簡直是支離破碎。

為了挽回一些面子，我想我可以歸功於我的“運氣”，我在年初賣出了所有外幣，尤其是人民幣，英鎊和歐元，在年中就賣出了日元。當我說運氣我是認真的，我賣出英鎊和歐元的原因不是因為我可以「預見」英國脫歐的結果，實際上我對公投沒有強烈的感覺，也沒有水晶球告訴我人民幣會大跌及美元的上升，我賣英鎊和歐元主要是因為我需要轉換這些貨幣買股票，這些錢大部分是我在2015年的蜜月留下來的，而我在2月因要到日本參加朋友婚禮令我可以在一個非常便宜的價格購買更多日元，在旅行後我不想留下他們，所以在更高的匯率全部賣走了而賺了幾塊錢。但我對人民幣確實有一個強烈的感覺而賣走，因為沒有甚麼可以上升這麼多年，中國政府他們沒有空間下降是一件很好笑的事。多年來我在投資中學到的一件事就是，你跟本不需要擔心一個市場，直到政府告訴你不要擔心。

無論如何，2016年還是有一些好的驚喜，例如黃金和少數好股票，股票HK：853和HK：8216有50％和30％的利潤，我已經賣了他們，但他們的投資組合中的百份比是如此的少，沒有對整體表現做出巨大貢獻。我大舉投資的股票幾乎沒有動過，例如 HK：1431從0.475至0.51（7％），儘管另一隻股票HK: 1373從$1.14上升至$1.62（+ 30％），但仍未達到我的平均買入價，所以我想我必須更加耐心。

我要再次強調，我們不能精確預測上升和下跌的時間，我做的只是保持購買良好的資產，最終將會產生一個好的結果，否則我們做的只是投機，而不是投資。投資就是繼續購買良好的資產，而優質資產的定義不會給你很短的時間之內價格暴漲，優質資產的定義是能夠產生穩定的現金流入公司（和股東分紅），短期內價格可能表現不佳，但從長期來看，股價也肯定會大幅上漲。

你可以從統計數據中看到我身體力行，我花在購買資產的錢遠高於我從賣出資產的錢（在2016年我現套了19萬，但花了32萬），有些人可能會問，在那裡額外的錢來自支持你花更多的錢？這就是投資的魔力，從你的資產（股票，基金，貸款）產生的現金（股息，利息，新投資者資金）最終應該會達到一個平均，你不需要再投入新的錢，意味著你擁有的資產產生的現金可以自我維持，開始像一個雪球滾動，最終自身變得愈來愈大（這就是為巴菲特的傳記的書名叫雪球）. 盡管是這樣說，我都希望2017年會有更好的結果。

問候，

卡爾文

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