MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2017 – My best "Investment" 我的最佳「投資」

Mar Fund Price/ 3月基金價格: $1.8856

Apr Fund Price/ 4月基金價格: $1.9031

May Fund Price/ 5月基金價格: $1.9255

Jun (Latest) Fund Price/ 6月(最新)基金價格: $1.9052

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $ 1,626,685.75

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

親愛的投資者，

好久不見！自上次報告以來已經有一段時間了；你有想過我一直在做甚麼嗎？是否拿了你的錢然後走了？哈哈

我的最後一份報告是在3月份寫的，但是當我要寫下一個報告時，我最好的「投資」已經在4月2日到了世界 - 我的兒子智仁　:)

毫無疑問，我成為一個更快樂和更繁忙的人，很多事情需要學習，更不用說無數不眠之夜，100天後，我終於可以回到正軌，所以我決定寫一個關於這個基金的短更新。

我花了很多時間讓人（在我的基金報告和YouTube視頻）中了解「投資」的真正定義，人們基於自己的想像力或一廂情願的想法將它與投機和許多其他無關的事物混為一談。我可以再次明確定義，「投資」的定義是獲得具有價值的「資產」，知道他們會升值。在獲得的過程中，你必須犧牲其他的東西，例如時間和金錢，這就是為什麼巴菲特稱投資的能力也是「延緩滿足的能力」。他當然是在談論金錢，但它完全描繪了生活中的其他方面。有一些實驗研究孩子的行為如何影響他們的未來，其中一個測試將他們放在房間裡，給予每個人一粒糖果，並告訴他們，如果他們不吃那粒糖果，5分鐘後他們將被給予另一粒。我們都知道會發生怎麼事，８成的孩子不能忍受誘惑，吃那粒糖果。這個實驗告訴我們延遲滿足的能力在人類是罕見的，我們的人性都想立即得到滿足。

大多數人投資不成功，不是因為他們不夠聰明，是因為他們沒有耐心等待，同樣越來越少的人願意有孩子（特別是在已發展國家），是因為他們不希望孩子「摧毀他們的生活方式」或更好的藉口 - 我不想讓他們「受苦」，因為老實講，沒有人知道這些「投資」會如何變成如何，所以他們寧願不冒險，因為犧牲是明確的，但獎勵卻不是。

當朋友問我是否有計劃生孩子時，我總是說我從來沒有想過要控制結果，就像我沒有「計劃」購買我的第一隻股票，也許我對我的未來有點樂觀，但不代表我不需要面對困難的時期，過去很難，現在很難，將來也一定很難，但一旦你了解「投資」的價值，你就會有勇氣越過它。作為回報，我兒子的「升值」不是為了給我更多的錢（我已經有用錢的投資來解決我的錢問題），而是令他在這個世界成為一個有價值和愛的人。 我認為很多人不明白「你種的是甚麼，收的也會是甚麼」，人們種下檸檬的種子，卻希望獲得蘋果，他們用錢「投資」在需要愛的人 (家庭)，反之他們將感情給予只有金錢相關的東西上（工作）。

回到投資，每個人都可以看到香港股市正在上漲，人們會問我現在應該買嗎？我的回答總是這個問題在2-3年前就應該問了，股市已經不再便宜了，其實我甚至賣了一些資產來鎖定過去2-3年的利潤，希望今年能打破2元的紀錄，如果今年沒有，最終都是會打破的

最好的祝福，

卡爾文

Dear Investors,

Long time no see! It has been awhile since my last report; have you wondering what I have been doing? Have I taken your money and run away? Haha

My last report was written in Mar, however when I am about to write the next one, my best “investment” has come to the world on the 2nd of April – My son Luke :)

No doubt I have become a happier and busier man, a lot of things need to learn, not to mention countless sleepless nights, after 100 days I can finally get back on track, so I decide to write a quick update about this fund for you guys.

I have spent a lot of time to let people (in my fund reports and youtube videos) understand the true definition of “investment”, people confuse it with speculation and many other unrelated things base on their own imagination or wishful thinking. I can make the definition to be clear one more time, the definition of “investment” is obtain and “assets” that has value, knowing it will appreciate. In the process of obtain, you have to sacrifice other things, e.g. time & money, that’s why Warren Buffett also called the ability of invest as “the ability to delay gratification”. Of course he is talking about money, but it is perfectly described other areas in life. There were experiments to research how kids behavior will affect their future path, one of the tests are put them in the room and give each of them a candy, and tell them if they do not eat that candy, they will be given another one 5 mins later. We all knows how it goes, 80% of the kids cannot bear the temptation and eat that candy. This experiment tells us the ability to delay gratification is rare in human, our nature all want to be satisfied immediately.

Most of the people fail in investment not because they are not smart enough, it is because they do not have the patient to wait, similarly less and less people willing to have kids (esp. in developed countries) are because they do not wish children to “destroy their lifestyle” or with better reason – I don’t want them to “suffer”, because let’s face it, no one knows how these “investment” will turn out so they rather not to take the risk, it is true the sacrifice are definite, but the rewards are not.

When my friends asked me was it planned to have children, I always say I never thought of to control the outcome, just like I didn’t “plan” to buy my first stock, maybe I am a bit optimistic about my future, not that I do not need to face difficult time, it was difficult, it is difficult now and it will be difficult in the future, but once you acknowledge the value in the “investment”, you will have the courage to get through it. In return, the “appreciation” of my son is NOT to give me back more money (I already have money investment to solve my money problem), but to make him become a valuable man and love in this world. I think a lot of people do not understand “you get what you give”, people plant lemon seeds and expects to get apple, and they “invest” in love and expect money in return or vice versa, so they treat people that require love with money (family), or give their love to things that are money related (career).

Back to the investment, everyone can see HK stock is going towards an upward trend, people ask me should they buy now? My answer always be you should have asked 2-3 years ago, the stock markets aren’t cheap anymore today, it can go up as well as down, in fact I have sold some of the assets to lock the profits in the last 2-3 years, I hope we can break the $2 mark this year (we are so close), if not this year, eventually it will.

Best regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2017 – Did you know? 你知道嗎?

Jan Fund Price/ 一月基金價格: $1.8461
Feb (Latest) Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8923
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,615,621.05
Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

CHINNEY INV  建業實業（00216.HK）

Dear Investors,

Welcome to the year of the rooster, the year has a pretty neat start for me, looks like we will be two folded soon, last time we were this close was on the May, 2015, the hype train carried my fund to $1.9799, but the hype was very short lived (false bull). Last month thanks to a stock CHINNEY INV (00216.HK), the fund had a significant increase because its mother company has sold a real estate investment worth 3.1 billion, the estimated profit will be 2.2 billion! (I have no idea how to they can take 70% of the profit), this company will be shared at least 700 million of profit when the market value of the whole company was only around 900 million before the news was announced, the price immediately jumped from $1.6 per shares to $2.2 and now is at $2.8, I believe when the company reach its true value, the fair price should be around $4-5 per shares. Well, what can I say except I felt like hitting another jackpot? This is totally unexpected, I have bought it for more than a year, it has dropped more than 30% at one point, but this is investment, you got to have a very strong believe in your analysis, and then be extreme patient. I think a lot of people fail either they are not logical or they are not patient. So this letter is some “did you know” facts for you. Did you know?

1. 30% of people in Hong Kong is actively involved in stock market, one of highest population % involve in stock investment cities in the world
2. The Hang Seng Index has increased 756% from 1987-2016 (from 2568 points to 22000 points)
3. Over 80% of the stock “investors” end up losing money (you wonder why how is it possible when the market has increased 7 times, all they need to do is do nothing but wait)
4. Most of the “investors” have no idea what company they are investing in except the names and stock numbers
5. Hang Seng Index has an average 25% simple annual return (or 7.42% compound annual return) in the last 30 years
6. The highest % gain happened in 1993 (115.67%), 1999 (68.8%) and 2009 (52.02%)
7. If you skipped year 1993 only in the last 30 years, your 756% gain is reduce to 508.36%; if you skipped year 1999, your gain is reduced to 487.43%; if you skipped year 2009, your gain is reduced to 465.18%; if you skipped all 3 years only, you are now sitting at a -52.26% loss.

I guess this explain a lot why people is not doing so well in stock, firstly they try to time the market, they make (or listen to so-called “professional”) to prediction how the market will perform, hoping to “buy low sell high”. The fact is that no one has the crystal ball to predict anything, if so my career as an insurance agent is a dead end. Secondly they only want to participate in investment when everyone else does, have you wondered why 1993, 1999, 2009 are the years that achieved highest gain? 

Back in 1993, Tsing Tao Beer is listed in HK, everyone got on the hyped train that the capital from China is going to flood Hong Kong, the index dropped 31% the year after; in 1999 it was the internet bubble, any company added a “.com” will have their share price ten folded in the next couple months, did it make sense? Apparently many idiots think so. The indexed dropped 50% in the next 3 years. And 2009 is after the financial crisis when USA decided to save the major banks, but the actual drive was back in 2006-2007, where 86% gain was achieved in 2 years before the crisis, everyone knows what happened in 2008. 

I think you can do very well if you entered the market correctly before everyone else, but can you? I think the truth is that a lot of people get on board in the middle or even at the end of the rise, they are sitting on 5-7% of profit and refuse to leave, than experience a 60-70% drop later on. This behavior keep repeating because human is like that, drive by greed and fear, they just unable to sit down and wait patiently, they want to know what the next trend in the next 2 months, 2 weeks even 2 days! I hope this can bring some insight to you

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. Chinney Inv is stock introduced by an Hong Kong investment bloggers, so I must give him some credit for this amazing discovery, you can check out his blog through this link also: http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

親愛的投資者，

歡迎來到雞年，這一年我有一個相當不錯的開始，看來我們應該很快到達雙倍回報，上次我們這樣接近是在2015年5月，炒作的風氣將我的基金推到$1.9799，但炒作是非常短暫的（假牛市）。上個月由於股票建業實業（00216.HK），基金有了顯著的升幅，因為其母公司已經出售了價值31億的房地產投資，預計利潤將是22億！ （我不知道他們如何能拿到70％的利潤），這家公司將共享至少7億的利潤，當消息宣布之前，整間公司的市價只有大約9億左右，價格立即從每股$1.6跳升至$2.2，現在為$2.8，我相信當公司達到其真實價值時，公平價格應該在每股$4-5左右。那麼，除了我覺得中了另一個大獎外我還能說什麼？這是完全出乎意料的，我買了一年多，它一度跌了30％以上，但這就是投資，你必須有一個非常堅定的分析，然後是極端的耐性。我認為很多人失敗了，不是他們不合邏輯，就是沒有耐性。所以這封信會給你講一些“你知道嗎”的事實。你知道嗎？

1. 香港有30％的人積極參與股票市場，是世界上股票投資率最高的城市中之一
2. 恆生指數由1987年至2016增加756％ （從2568點升至22000點）
3. 超過80％的股票「投資者」輸錢收場（你奇怪這有甚麼可能當市場上升了7倍，他們需要做的就是甚麼都不做, 除了等待）
4. 大多數「投資者」不知道他們投資的公司，除了名稱和股票號碼
5. 恆生指數在過去30年的年收益率平均為25％（或年復合年增長率為7.42％）
6. 最高百分比升幅發生在1993年（115.67％），1999年（68.8％）和2009年（52.02％）
7. 如果你在過去30年中跳過1993年，你的756%的收益減少到508.36%；如果你跳過1999年，你的收益減少到487.43%；如果你跳過2009年，你的收益減少到465.18%；如果你跳過這3年，你現在得到-52.26％的損失。

我想這解釋了為甚麼人們總是輸，首先，他們試圖補捉市場，他們（或聽所謂的「專業人士」）預測市場的表現，希望「低買高賣」。事實是，沒有人有水晶球預測任何東西，如果是這樣，我作為保險代理人的職業就沒有前途了。其次，他們只想在所有其他人都參與投資時才參與，你想知道為什麼1993年，1999年，2009年是最高增長的年份？

1993年青島啤酒在香港上市，每個都希望分一杯羹，中國的資金都要湧入香港，恆生指數第2年跌了31%；1999年是互聯網泡沫，任何公司增加了一個“.com”，其股價將在未來幾個月上升１０倍，這樣合常理嗎？顯然很多白痴認為合理。指數在未來3年下降50％。2009年是金融危機後，美國決定拯救主要銀行，但實際驅動力應該回到2006 - 2007年，在危機發生前兩年實現了86％的增長，之後大家都知到2008年發生甚麼事了。

我想如果你在其他人之前正確進入市場你可以做得很好，但你能嗎？我認為事實是，很多人在中間或甚至結束時上升才加入，他們得到利潤的5-7％後拒絕離開，之後就要經歷60-70%的跌幅。這種行為不斷重複，因為人類是這樣，被貪婪和恐懼所驅動，他們就是無法坐下來耐心等待，他們想知道未來2個月，2週甚至2天後的趨勢！我希望這可以帶給你一些洞察。

問候，

卡爾文

p.s. 建業實業是由一位香港投資博客作者介紹的，所以我必須將這個驚人的發現歸功於他，你可以通過這個鏈接查看他的博客：http://mrmarketofhk.blogspot.hk/

Hang Seng Index 1987-2016

Year	Beginning Price	Ending Price	Gain or Loss	Percent Gain or Loss
1987	2568.3	2302.8	-265.5	-10.34%
1988	2302.8	2687.4	384.6	16.70%
1989	2687.4	2836.6	149.2	5.55%
1990	2836.6	3024	187.4	6.61%
1991	3024	4297.3	1273.3	42.11%
1992	4297.3	5512.4	1215.1	28.28%
1993	5512.4	11888.4	6376	115.67%
1994	11888.4	8191	-3697.4	-31.10%
1995	8191	10073.4	1882.4	22.98%
1996	10073.4	13451.5	3378.1	33.53%
1997	13451.5	10722.8	-2728.7	-20.29%
1998	10722.8	10048.58	-674.22	-6.29%
1999	10048.58	16962.1	6913.52	68.80%
2000	16962.1	15095.53	-1866.57	-11.00%
2001	15095.53	11397.21	-3698.32	-24.50%
2002	11397.21	9321.29	-2075.92	-18.21%
2003	9321.29	12575.94	3254.65	34.92%
2004	12575.94	14230.14	1654.2	13.15%
2005	14230.14	14876.43	646.29	4.54%
2006	14876.43	19964.72	5088.29	34.20%
2007	19964.72	27812.65	7847.93	39.31%
2008	27812.65	14387.48	-13425.17	-48.27%
2009	14387.48	21872.5	7485.02	52.02%
2010	21872.5	23035.45	1162.95	5.32%
2011	23035.45	18434.39	-4601.06	-19.97%
2012	18434.39	22656.92	4222.53	22.91%
2013	22656.92	23306.39	649.47	2.87%
2014	23306.39	23605.04	298.65	1.28%
2015	23605.04	21914.4	-1690.64	-7.16%
2016	21914.4	22000.56	86.16	0.39%

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
Subscribe to Information登記接收資訊: https://goo.gl/forms/ihUd6Fu0eC8CNFc22
Facebook: http://facebook.com/mechcalvinfund
Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Youtube (New): http://youtube.com/mechcalvinfund
Youtube (Legacy): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB
Email: investment@mechcalvin.com

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2016 – What a year… 這一年真的是…

Nov Fund Price/ 十一月基金價格: $1.8618

Latest Fund Price/ 最新基金價格: $1.8126

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $1,589,655.96

Total Units 基金單位總數: 853,808.4259 Units

Statistic 統計數據

*Collect and Withdraw are the amount in and out from investors
**Income and Expense represent done deals of this fund (brought and sold assets)

*流入及流出是指投資者的資金

**收入及支出指基金已完成的交易 (已買入及賣出資產)

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year, finally I have finished all the statistic work and can sit down to write something. As title described, 2016 was full of surprises and disappointments. 

Let’s start with this fund, the fund price has increased from 1.7689 to 1.8126 (2.47%) only this year, while the HS index has increased 86.16 points (0.39%) only (from 21949.4 to 22000.56), the assets didn’t perform as I expected, for example I have taken 56k profit from stocks in 2014, a massive 330k in 2015, but in 2016, I have only made 16k, which is even lower than my monthly wage, haha. Of course I am talking about sold stocks, but even consider unsold assets, they didn’t perform well, most of the incomes (2.47%) are from stocks dividends and interest from loans, the price of the stocks and funds are falling apart.

To save some face, I guess I can give credit to my “luck” that I sold all foreign currencies in the beginning of the year, esp. CNY, GBP and EUR, and JPY in the middle of the year. When I say luck I really mean it, the reason I sold my GBP and EUR not because I can “foreseen” the outcome of BREXIT, in fact I didn’t feel strongly about the referendum, nor my crystal ball told me the great falling of CNY and uprising USD, I sold GBP and EUR mainly because I need to convert those currencies to buy stocks, most of these money are left from my honeymoon in 2015, and my Japan trip for a friend’s wedding in Feb have made me buy more Yen at a very cheap rate, after the trip I didn’t want to keep them so I sold all of them at a higher rate and earned a few bucks. I did have a strong feeling to sell all the RMB, because let’s face it, nothing can go up and up for many years, it is funny to see how the Chinese government say they have little room to go down. One thing I have learnt over the years in investment is that, you don’t need to worry about a market, until the government tells you not to worry about it.

Anyway there were also some good surprises in 2016, e.g. the gold and few good stocks picks, the stocks HK:853 and HK:8216 have 50% and 30% profit, I have sold both of them, yet their % in the portfolio is so little it didn’t make a huge contribution to the overall performance. The stocks I heavily invested barely moved, e.g. HK: 1431 from $0.475 to $0.51 (7%), even though another stock HK:1373 (aka Japan Home in HK) has risen from $1.14 to $1.62 (+30%), it still hasn’t reached my average purchasing price, so I guess I have to be more patient.

Again I have to emphasis we are unable to predict the precise timing of the rise and fall, what I am doing to keep buying in good assets that will eventually produce a good outcome, otherwise we are doing speculation rather than investment. What investment all about is to keep buying good assets, and the definition of good assets IS NOT that will give you immediately rise of its price in a very short period, the definition of a good asset is to generate stable cash inflow to the company (and dividend to the shareholders), it may perform poorly in price in short run, but in long term it will definitely have a significant rise in stock price also. 

You can see from the statistic I practice what I preach, the money I spend on buy assets are much more than money I got from selling (in 2016 I have cashed out 190k but have spent 327k), some might ask, where the extra money comes from to support you to spend more? It is the magic of investment, the cash (dividend, interest, new investors) keep generating from your assets (stocks, funds, loans) should reach an equilibrium that you do not need to put in new money anymore, meaning the cash generating from the assets you own will become self-sustain, start rolling like a snowball and eventually get bigger and bigger by itself (That is why the name of the biography of Warren Buffett is called snowball). Even said that, I do hope 2017 will have a better outcome.

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

新年快樂，我終於完成了所有的統計工作，可以坐下來寫點東西。如標題所言，2016年充滿驚愕及失望。

讓我們從這個基金開始講起，今年基金價格只從1.7689增加到1.8126（2.47％），而HS指數只增加了86.16點（0.39％）（從21949.4點到22000.56點），資產沒有按我預期表現，例如我在2014年只從股票已經套現了5萬6千的利潤，在2015年大規模增加至33萬，但在2016年只有一萬六，甚至比我的月工資還低，哈哈。當然我只是指已經賣出的股票，但即使考慮未售出的資產，他們的表現都不佳，大部分收入（2.47％）來自股票股息和貸款利息，股票和基金的價格簡直是支離破碎。

為了挽回一些面子，我想我可以歸功於我的“運氣”，我在年初賣出了所有外幣，尤其是人民幣，英鎊和歐元，在年中就賣出了日元。當我說運氣我是認真的，我賣出英鎊和歐元的原因不是因為我可以「預見」英國脫歐的結果，實際上我對公投沒有強烈的感覺，也沒有水晶球告訴我人民幣會大跌及美元的上升，我賣英鎊和歐元主要是因為我需要轉換這些貨幣買股票，這些錢大部分是我在2015年的蜜月留下來的，而我在2月因要到日本參加朋友婚禮令我可以在一個非常便宜的價格購買更多日元，在旅行後我不想留下他們，所以在更高的匯率全部賣走了而賺了幾塊錢。但我對人民幣確實有一個強烈的感覺而賣走，因為沒有甚麼可以上升這麼多年，中國政府他們沒有空間下降是一件很好笑的事。多年來我在投資中學到的一件事就是，你跟本不需要擔心一個市場，直到政府告訴你不要擔心。

無論如何，2016年還是有一些好的驚喜，例如黃金和少數好股票，股票HK：853和HK：8216有50％和30％的利潤，我已經賣了他們，但他們的投資組合中的百份比是如此的少，沒有對整體表現做出巨大貢獻。我大舉投資的股票幾乎沒有動過，例如 HK：1431從0.475至0.51（7％），儘管另一隻股票HK: 1373從$1.14上升至$1.62（+ 30％），但仍未達到我的平均買入價，所以我想我必須更加耐心。

我要再次強調，我們不能精確預測上升和下跌的時間，我做的只是保持購買良好的資產，最終將會產生一個好的結果，否則我們做的只是投機，而不是投資。投資就是繼續購買良好的資產，而優質資產的定義不會給你很短的時間之內價格暴漲，優質資產的定義是能夠產生穩定的現金流入公司（和股東分紅），短期內價格可能表現不佳，但從長期來看，股價也肯定會大幅上漲。

你可以從統計數據中看到我身體力行，我花在購買資產的錢遠高於我從賣出資產的錢（在2016年我現套了19萬，但花了32萬），有些人可能會問，在那裡額外的錢來自支持你花更多的錢？這就是投資的魔力，從你的資產（股票，基金，貸款）產生的現金（股息，利息，新投資者資金）最終應該會達到一個平均，你不需要再投入新的錢，意味著你擁有的資產產生的現金可以自我維持，開始像一個雪球滾動，最終自身變得愈來愈大（這就是為巴菲特的傳記的書名叫雪球）. 盡管是這樣說，我都希望2017年會有更好的結果。

問候，

卡爾文

Useful Links 有用連結
Trading Record 買賣記錄: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing
Subscribe to Information登記接收資訊: https://goo.gl/forms/ihUd6Fu0eC8CNFc22
Facebook: http://facebook.com/mechcalvinfund
Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Youtube (New): http://youtube.com/mechcalvinfund
Youtube (Legacy): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB
Email: investment@mechcalvin.com

MECHCalvin Fund Report (Sort of) Oct, 2016 - Quick Update

Dear Investors,
Sorry haven't got time to write a proper fund report, have been super busy in the past few months, and we are expecting a baby next year, few of you have been asking how the fund is doing, I can say it is doing OK consider what 2016 has went through, I will write a details end of year fund report in Dec, but would like to drop a short email to brief you guys how the fund is doing.

Fund Price
Jun: 1.7899
Jul: 1.8234
Aug: 1.8290
Sept: 1.8541
Oct: 1.8485

Total units: 853,808.4259
Total Market Value: $1,578,274.44

Just a quick update to keep your heads up. Will get a proper report by the end of this year to address all the issues we are facing, say BREXT and Donald Trump things like that, you know the deal unless you are living in Mars or something like that

regards,
Calvin
p.s. Sold all RMB, JPY, EUR and GBP (UK stocks remain though)


致各位投資者，
不好意思，一直沒有時間寫一個正式的基金報告，在過去幾個月來我超級忙碌，我們正期待明年會有一個BB，有些人有時會問基金現在如何，我可以考慮在2016年的情況下是OK的，我將會在十二月寫一個詳細的年底基金報告，但先想寫一個簡要郵件。

基金價格
6月：1.7899
7月：1.8234
8月：1.8290
9月：1.8541
10月：1.8485

總基金單位：853,808.4259
總市值：HK$1,578,274.44

只是一個簡短更新讓你們不需太擔心. 今年年底會有一個正式的報告解說我們面臨的所有問題，例如英國脫歐和特朗普這些事情，除非你住在火星, 你們都應該知道甚麼事

問候，
Calvin
p.s. 已售出所有人民幣，日元，歐元和英鎊（英國股票仍然持有）

MECHCalvin Fund Report May, 2016 –7 Years in a nutshell: Winning the Loser's Game 七年一言蔽之: 勝出輸家的遊戲

March 2016
Latest fund price: $1.7559 (+0.0196, 1.13%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,503,908.07
Total units: 856,505.1069 units

April 2016
Latest fund price: $1.7842 (+0.0283, 1.61%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,528,161.07
Total units: 856,505.1069 units

May 2016
Latest fund price: $1.7810 (-0.0032, 0.18%)
Total Market Value: $ 1,525,441.14
Total units: 856,505.1069 units

Dear Investors,

This fund is 7 years old on the 4th of June, remember the first I invite you to invest? Or you contact me for no particular reason then suddenly decided to invest a lump sum of money into my fund, and then ask me how much your $2 worth now every time we meet? Haha! All of that seems like yesterday to me, never the less 7 years is not that long, but it’s not that short neither.

Winning the loser’s game is a book written by Charles Ellis, he is served as a successor trustee of Yale University from 1997 to 2008, due to his extraordinary return made for the university, and he received the Yale Medal in 2009 for his service. He is famously authored the article “The Loser’s Game” claiming: “The investment management business (it should be a profession but is not) is built upon a simple and basic belief: Professional money managers can beat the market. That premise appears to be false”, later become the book that will sum up his career, which pretty sum up my investment career so far as well, I recommend you read it if you are interested in investment. In his book he argued the idea so called professional investor can do better than market simply is false, not because these highly educated elites involve in a scam or try to cheat the public, in fact they are all highly motivated with good intention, and confidently they are in the winning game, however in reality investment is a loser’s game, meaning they aren’t beating the market, the market is beating them. The secret of winning in a loser’s game is to minimizing mistakes and for investors this means minimizing trading.

The funny thing is Warren Buffett have said similar thing: “if you are not going to hold a stock for 10 years you better not invest in it in the first place”, I have definitely broken this rule… lots of time, mainly due to lack of confident, or due to numerous bad decisions, even though most of my trades have made profit, yet if I could do it again, today’s outcome would definitely be much better, but well, I guess that’s part of life.

The 2016 annual shareholders meeting of Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway was casted online live for the first time, in the past only the class A shareholders can gain access to the so call “Woodstock for Capitalists”. I forgot whether I have said it before, my fund hold some of his class B shares, luckily this year I can sit at my house and watch the Q&A section (at mid-night though), however the quality of the questions is inversely proportional to the increase number of attendants, esp. the amount of Chinese shareholders increase every year, the parvenu from China have little understanding of the investment philosophy, but highly invested in people with fame, the way they see to become as a shareholder of a highly successful company is because they feel honored, it’s like getting a Ferrari, it represent a status symbol, the price doesn’t come cheap though, class A now worth 212k USD per share, roughly 1.6M in HKD. However I am not speaking from jealousy, rather in concern, China work very differently, socialists try to run capitalism result in many ridiculous things, it has made a lot of people become very wealthy (Some from doing nothing or by delivering things has no value), yet they are very proud of the “success” of their own country, and think they are in par with the real successful stories in other free worlds which is very dangerous, when the reality strike one day things can turn really ugly.

Anyway, back to my fund, I didn’t touch anything since the last 2 months reports, that’s the Dec, 2015, nothing too special in the last few months except my prediction about gold surprised me, I expected a slow rise, but in fact the gold price has raised for over 35% in half a year, unfortunately my holding in gold is very limited. I advised my insurance clients start investing in gold since July last year, one of the women end up putting 60% of her daughter education fund into gold related fund, she felt like she has hit the jack pot, when she told me my reaction wasn’t that positive, it was scary to me because I didn’t expect she put that much of % into gold, traditionally gold should only consist 5% max of your investment portfolio, 10% max in some extreme condition (3% in my fund), 60% is just ridiculous, I guess it is pure luck it turned out that “great”. After helping her to lock the profit, I felt a sense of irony some billionaires lost 20 million because of a bad investment decision, yet it is only a little loss of his overall wealth, while at the same time 35% growth for a mother is only enough to pay the tuition fee for her daughter for 2 months.

The longer I run a fund, the more I understand the wisdom behind investment: If you want to get reasonable return, you need to rely on your own intelligent and hard work, but if you want to get high return, you must rely on the stupidity of the market.

To sum it up, so far so good, I really want to make this fund become a thing, I enjoyed managing it, and I am looking forward to see how things will turn out for the next 7 years ahead. Bear in mind though, the market is quite bullish in the last 7 years, so prepare for some volatility in the coming year, although no one can predict the future, market crash is part of the game, and it happens in cycle for every 7-10 years, remember what John Templeton said: “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. I have uploaded my trading records online; you can see it through this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing

p.p.s. I have finished creating a 10 hours youtube investment tutorial this year, I started it 2 years ago, it is consisted of 7lessons, it carefully explained my investment philosophy and how I pick stocks in practice, it drawn some attention in HK, if you are interested, you can find the link here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB

親愛的投資者,

這個基金在6月4日已經七歲了, 是否記田第一次我邀請你投資? 或你突然無啦啦決定投資一筆錢入這這個基金, 接著每次見到都問我你投資的兩蚊現在價值多少? 哈哈! 對我而言感覺就像昨天, 雖然七年不算長, 但也不短.

「勝出輸家的遊戲」是一本查爾斯。艾利斯寫的書，他在１９９７年至２００８年間為耶魯大學管理大學的信託基金，因為出色的表現，他在２００９年獲得耶魯勳章。他撰寫一篇著名的文章「輸家的遊戲」，聲稱：「投資管理的業務（它應該是一個專業，但現實卻不是）是建立於一個簡單而基本的信念：專業資金管理人可以打敗市場。這個前提似乎是假的」，這篇文章之後成為這本書總括了他的投資生涯，也總括了我暫時的投資生涯，如你對投資有興趣我建議你可以一看。在這本書他表明所謂的「專業投資者」可以表現得比市場更好的想法是錯誤的，不是因為這些受過高等教育的精英參與詐騙或試圖欺騙公眾，相反他們都是積極性很高而且有良好動機，自信自己在「贏家的遊戲」，可惜現實投資是一個「輸家的遊戲」，也是說他們無法擊敗市場，市場擊敗了他們。要勝出輸家的遊戲就是要減少錯誤，對投資來說就是要減少交易。

搞笑的是巴菲特也說過相似的話:「如果你不打算持有一隻股票十年，你一開始就不應該碰它」，我一定已經犯過很多次規，主要是沒有信心，或是因為很多錯誤的決定，雖然我大部份的交易都賺錢，但如果我可以再做一次，今天的結果一定很不一樣，但我想，這就是生活的一部份。

巴菲特的公司巴郡２０１６年年度股東大會第一次全球線上直播，過去只有A股股東能夠獲得參加被稱為「資本家的胡士托」的資格。我忘了是否說過，這個的基金持有一些他的B股，幸運地今年我可以在我家坐看問答部分（雖然在午夜），雖然提問的質素跟參加人數的數量成反比，特別中國股東的數量逐年增加，來自中國的暴發戶對價值投資理念的了解甚少，但高度投資於出名的人，在他們的角度成為一間非常成功的公司的股東，是因為他們感到榮幸，這就像買法拉利，是一種身份的象徵，但代價不菲，A股每股目前的價錢廿一萬美元，港幣約一百六十萬。不過我這樣說不是因為妒忌，而是關注，中國的運作非常不同，社會主義者嘗試執行資本主義導致很多非常荒謬的結果，它使很多人變得非常富有（有些來自無所作為或通過提供沒有價值的東西），但他們卻很自豪自己國家的「成功」，而且認為他們可以跟其他在自由社會真正成功的故事相提並論，這是非常危險的，當有日現實打擊事情可以相當難看。

說回我的基金，自上兩個基金報告我甚麼也沒碰過，是２０１５年１２月之後，這半年沒有甚麼特別的事情，除了我對黃金的預測讓我吃驚，我預期慢升，但過去半年黃金已經升了３５％，可惜我的黃金持貨十分有限。我上年７月開始建議我的保險客戶投資黃金，有位女仕最後將她女兒的教育基金轉入黃金相關的基金，她感覺好像中了頭獎，當她告訴我時我的反應不是太正面，對我來說這是可怕的事因為我沒有預期她將這麼高百分比放入黃金，傳統上黃金應該最多只佔你投資組合的５％，在極端的情況下１０％（在我的基金只佔３％），６０％實在是太荒謬，我想結果這樣好是純粹幸運。幫她鎖住利潤之後，我覺得一種諷刺的感覺，有些億萬富翁因為一個糟糕的投資決策損失了二千萬，對他而言只是一點損失，而同一時期一位母親的基金增長了３５％只足夠她的女兒交兩個月的學費。

當我運作這個基金的時間愈長，我愈理解投資背後的智慧：如果你想獲得合理的回報，你需要依賴自己的智慧跟努力，但如果你想獲得超高回報，你必須依靠市場的愚蠢。

總括來說，到目前還不錯，我真的想令這個基金變得更好，我很喜歡管理它，我很期待看未來七年事情會變成如何。但請記住，市場在過去七年相當牛，所以對於來年一定的波動做好準備，雖然沒有人能預測未來，但市場大跌是遊戲的一部分，它在週期每七至十年發生，記住約翰。鄧普頓說：「牛市在悲觀中誕生，在懷疑中成長，在樂觀中成熟，在興奮中死亡」

問候

卡爾文

p.s. 我已上載我過去的交易記錄上網，你可以通過此鏈接看到：https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvZm0BsyKDhoRhR5Yv46n3Uc8kA3W6FR8Myv_ysUpC8/edit?usp=sharing

p.p.s. 我剛剛完成製作一個10小時的YouTube投資教學，兩年前開始的，它是由七課組成的，它小心解釋了我完整的投資理念以及如何實踐挑選股票，在香港得出了一些關注，如果你有興趣，你可以在這裡找到的鏈接：https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2016 - Time the Market 入市時機

31st, Jan 2016

Latest fund price: $1.7127 (-0.0562, 3.17%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,447,357.24 

Total units: 845,065.4598 units

29th, Feb 2016

Latest fund price: $1.7363 (+0.0236, 1.38%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,457,132.07

Total units: 839,226.7806 units

Hello Investors!

Haha, belated Happy Chinese New Year! yes, I know, I didn’t write anything last month. I have been busy, I have travelled to Japan to attend a University friend’s wedding, visited both Nagoya and Tokyo and the hype still remind! Yada yada, this is my lovely picture with this giant animated robot Gundam, but the main reason I didn’t release a fund report is that I didn’t make any move for couple months now, and I do not want to write report for the sake of writing, I wish my reports have contents. I think I will go with this flow in the future, so some months you will not receive any report from me, but if you have doubts or questions, you can always write to me through the fund email: investment@mechcalvin.com

The market continues to drop, HS index closed at 19111.12 on the 29/2/2016, the index has only gone up 3.29% up since the beginning of this fund back in 4/6/2009, almost 6.5 years ago, my fund still up 70%. Although my stocks holding in Hong Kong also fell a lot inevitably, however not all assets fell, the gold have surged 13% year to date from USD 1100 to USD 1250 per ounce, unfortunately I brought gold too early at around USD 1600 per ounce couple years ago (rookie mistake: buy things when they are cheap but not cheapest), yet I believe the trend will continue when the market become too volatile, everyone want to park their money in gold, I think I have said that in my last fund report.

Japanese Yen also came back, even with negative interest rate, the Japanese Yen become another “parking” asset when people believe there will be storm coming, I believe my yen holding will become profitable within this year, unfortunately I didn’t buy too many Japanese Yen…

My British and American stock also surged, yet once again I didn’t have too many oversea stock holdings unfortunately… -_-"

Lately I have been reading a lot of books about few legendary investors, e.g. Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and newly added Roy Neuberger and John Templeton.

I already used one of the quotes from John Templeton in my last fund report: The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’

This time I will use one of his other quotes: Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.

Actually one more: It is time in the market, not timing the market that counts.

Market are consisted of 10% winners and 90% losers, and for most people the only way to prevent loss is not to invest at all, this is when I can show off another Sir Templeton’s quote: The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. *I am such a lame fan boy :)

Most investors (or should I call them speculators) try to time the market, that’s why we always hear confused people keep asking: what should I do now? Should I invest now? Is it the best time to buy now? Should I enter the market now? Should I wait?

Since this is such a common question, that’s why we can see all these “professionals” on TV, radio and internet try to feed these miserable speculators with ambiguous answers, sometimes even worse, with determined answers.

After some many readings and research and practice, I am almost certain no one can time the market correctly, no one can tell what the market will become tomorrow or the day after, by trying to predicting the future people put themselves into a very dangerous situation, a situation that many have tried and failed, try to play god. For what can be certain is that the more time you sit tight, stay in the market, and do nothing most of the time, the market will work for you, stocks will eventually go up if you understand where you put your money into, I am not saying to invest blindly into anything because everything will eventually go up, I am saying you will have a better result to pick few stocks (this is where the magic happens) carefully then do nothing, rather than trying to read what the market is going on, and waste time to figure out what is going on.

In conclusion, doing nothing has been my winning strategy and worked out pretty well, pretty sure I will stay the same in the future.

Regards,

Calvin

p.s. I just wrote 800 words to explain why I did nothing! Brilliant! I am such a potential writer! Haha!

投資者您好！

哈哈，遲來的中國新年快樂！是的，我知道我上個月沒寫任何東西。我一直在忙，上個月我到日本參加一個大學朋友的婚禮，去了名古屋和東京，仍然很興奮！Ｙａｄａ　Ｙａｄａ，付上這張我跟這個巨大動畫機器人高達的可愛照片，但我沒有寫基金報告中最主要的原因是，我過去幾個月我甚麼都沒做，我不想為寫報告而寫，我希望我的報告有內容。我想我會在未來這個順其自然，所以可能有一些月份，你不會從我這裡收到報告，但如果你有疑問或問題，可以隨時通過基金郵件寫信給我：investment@mechcalvin.com

市場繼續下跌，恆指在2月29日收報19111.12點，指數比起這個基金在2009年6月4日開始時只升了3.29％，這是6年半前，我的基金仍然升了７０％。雖然我的香港股票也難免下降了不少，但不是所有的資產下跌，金價以年頭計起已飆升了13％，今年迄今從1100美元每盎司升至1250美元，不幸的是我買得太早了，我幾年前時在1600美元左右時就買入了（新手的錯誤：當便宜時就買東西，卻不是最便宜），但我相信這一趨勢將繼續，當市場變得過於不穩定，每個人都希望把錢投在黃金，我想我在上次的基金報告已經說過，。

日元也回來了，甚至負利率出現，當人們相信會有暴風雨就要來了，日元成為另一個“避險”資產，我相信我手持的日元將在今年內實現盈利，可惜我沒買太多日元...

我的美國跟英國股票也大升，再次可惜我沒有買入太多國外股票...　-_-"

最近我一直在閱讀了很多關於一些傳奇投資者的書籍，例如彼得林區，·巴菲特，以及新加入的羅伊紐伯格和約翰鄧普頓。

我在上一個基金報告已經引述了一句鄧普頓的名言：投資中最危險的四個字是：「這一次是不同的。」

今次我會用他的另一句報價名言：在最悲觀的時候投資。

再加多一句：不是去補捉最佳入市時機，而是長期堅持不懈地投資的時間才重要。

市場是由10％的勝利者和90％的失敗者組成的，而對大多數人來說，防止損失的唯一辦法是不投資，這時我可以炫耀的另一句鄧普頓爵士的座右銘：避免錯誤的唯一方法是不投資 - 這是所有的最大的錯誤。 *我真是一個很爛的粉絲 :)

大多數投資者（或者我應該叫他們投機者）嘗試補捉市場時機，這就是為什麼我們總是聽到人們一直問：我該怎麼辦？我現在是否應該投資？現在是否購買的最佳時機？我現在應該入市？還是應該等待？

由於這是一個十分普遍的問題，那就是為甚麼我們可以在電視，收音機和互聯網看到聽到這些「專業人士」嚐試用無菱兩可的答案餵養給這些可憐的投機者吃，有時甚至更糟，用堅定的答案。

經過許多閱讀，研究和實踐後，我幾乎可以肯定沒有人能正確補捉入市時機，沒有人能告訴市場明天或後天會發生甚麼事，試圖預測未來的人將自己放在一個非常危險的處境，就是許多人已經嘗試和失敗的處境，就是試圖扮演上帝的角色。對於甚麼可以肯定的是當你花更多時間在市場坐穩，留在市場內，大部分時間甚麼事都不用做，市場就會為你工作，股票最終將會上漲如果你明白你把錢進在甚麼，我我並不是說盲目地投資，因為最終甚麼都會上升，我說你如果仔細挑選幾隻股票（這才是真功夫），然後甚麼也不做，而不是試圖去解讀市場，和浪費時間來搞清楚是怎麼回事，將會有一個更好的結果。

總之，甚麼都不做一直是我的制勝戰略，而且過去一直運作得很好，我很肯定我未來將會保持這個策略不變。

多謝，

卡爾文

附：我剛剛用了1300字來解釋為甚麼我甚麼也沒做！天才！我真是一位有潛質的作家！哈哈!

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2015 –This time is different! 這次不一樣!

Latest fund price: $1.7689 (-0.0084, 0.47%)

Total Market Value: $ 1,494,796.42

Total units: 845,065.4598 units

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year! Finally I can sit down and write something properly, well I have to, after all it has been awhile. We are now in 2016 but none of the car is flying as the movie “back to the future” described, but surely the world has changed a lot, human nature? Not so much. 

Anyway, let’s do less storytelling and go back to the business. The stock market has dropped since the hype in April for 7 months consecutively, not exactly consecutively but the downward trend is obvious. 

I didn’t make any changes since last report (Oct), except sold all my RMB, it seems it wasn’t a bad idea looking back now. I have attached my fund performance against the Hang Seng Index, and attached ALL my previous trades (Hong Kong stocks only) in the excel file, it is a solid evidence of my investment skill over the years and I only disclose this information to my investors exclusively, so please don’t share it.

This year I hope my fund can reached 2-2.5 million HKD in size, I don’t know how I will get there and where to locate more investors, but I know eventually I will succeed. Frankly I didn’t even know how I got here to from the first place but here we are, it seems things just happened progressively. I expect the market to be weak in the short future so I want to spend time to talk about more about the interest hike, if you are not interested, you can stop reading to get back to your work/ rest/ games now.

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Heraclitus once said: “The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change”, however I am more of a fan of the French saying: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" (the more it changes, the more it's stay the same)

The financial world keep changing its game and people (even the professional) found it hard to keep up, every situation seems different, you can follow hundreds of Wall Street journalists, Analysts and financial professionals have thousands of opinion (that’s why I never follow any of them), even my salesman colleagues in the insurance company need to keep up with all these hardly understand information (if you want to appear to be professional in front of their clients), people are not interested in things they are already know and craving for the ever changing game.

To me all these are unnecessary and more importantly – useless, each time people say this time is different! They can give you 10,000 reasons why you have to look at the current situation differently in order to fit their own agenda, a salesman will keep telling you this is the best time to buy because this time is different! All these mediocre fund managers will tell you shamelessly this is the best time to invest because this time is different! (Regardless they have lost a big chunk of money from the investors previously) and moreover, the average people keep falling for these delusive ideas because they believe “this time is different”, every time!

Understanding each crisis is different outside but pretty much the same in nature will save you a lot of stress, the market consist of people and human nature never change, the financial world behave, speak and act repeatedly with different “appearances and excuses”, but in nature they are ALL THE SAME, no matter what anyone tells you, they are ALL THE SAME!

We had the great depression back in the 20’s, the energy crisis in the 70’s, the Black Monday in 1987, Asian financial crisis in 1997, dot com bubble in 2000, SARS in 2003, Financial Crisis in 2008, The European debt crisis in 2010, and we are waiting for something bigger to come, yet it doesn’t matter whatever crisis throw at us, the market behavior is only driven by two factors, “Fear” and “Greed”, nothing else, no matter what anyone tells you.

Every crisis a bunch of clueless investors imagine the end of the world might coming, and the all these “professionals”, journalists, media give everyone a push, the fear gasp everyone’s breath and took sell as the decision because it is too “risky!”; But when the market rise, everyone seems forget about so called risk and want to join the game because everyone else seems making money, it is too stupid not to join the party, of course again the “professional”, journalists and media will also give them a push, because why not if this seems to please everyone (esp. when they are “drunk” with their paper wealth).

It is impossible to predict what the next crisis will be, if you can foresee the future you don’t need to invest anymore, fortunately an intelligent investor do not require knowing the future in order to be wealthy, in fact spending too much time try to figure out whether tomorrow will be raining or not might be a completely waste of time, that is why I do not understand what with all these economic forecast reports from many finance institution, as informative as they seems they are utterly useless, but that’s how they get pay and that’s how this world work, we need a lot of useless jobs otherwise with the growth speed of the world population, the unemployment rate won’t look good, yeah right.

Anyway, I am expecting a rough ride in the coming year, the US asset rise have reached to a ridiculous level due to the 5 years long QE, I won’t spend time to discuss the details of the crisis the FED is creating, I can only say it is extremely rare within the history of free market, a mega huge bubble is created by the federal government, in fact I cannot think of any examples in the history of mankind, but USA did it, with all the money printing since 2008, they have created a mega huge bubble that seems make the data looks right on paper, but it didn’t help the real economy that much (it helped a little bit), but most of the benefits went into the asset holders, corporation and already rich people, what she has left is a much higher debt, and frankly they cannot afford any interest rise, however they have decided to do so, this self-inflated bubble will lead to a huge burst eventually, I don’t know when this will happen, but I know it is coming, I can already feel it, so do prepare for some really rough ride in the near future. In the mean time I will embrace gold, since in the time of fear, gold will become the “safeguard” of many investors, and I expect a lot of fear will be coming, stay tuned!

Regards,

Calvin

親愛的投資者，

新年快樂！我終於可以坐下來寫些的東西，其實是一定要，畢竟已經過了一段時間。我們現在已經在2016年，但沒有像電影「回到未來」中的描述滿天飛車是，但世界肯定已經發生了很大變化，人的本性？卻沒那麼多。

無論如何，讓我們做的少講故事，返回到業務。四月份被炒作的股市已連續下跌7個月連續，不完全是連續，但下降趨勢非常明顯。

自從上一次報告（10月），除出售我所有的人民幣，我沒有再做過任何改變，現在回頭來看，這也許不是一個壞主意。以上附上我的基金表現比較恆生指數，也附上了自從基金成立以來所有的交易（只限港股）的Excel文件，這是我多年來的投資技術的強力證據，但我只能透露這些信息給我的投資者，所以請不要分享它。

今年，我希望我的基金能達到二至二百五十萬港元的規模，我不知道我會如何達到，或在哪裡可以找到更多的投資者，但我知道最終我會成功的。坦白說，我甚至不知道我一開始行到今天，但結果今天我們都在這裡，好像事情慢慢就發生了。我預期市場在短期會繼續疲弱，所以我想花時間來談論加息，如果你不感興趣，你現在可以停止閱讀回到你的工作/休息/遊戲。

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赫拉克利特曾說過：「唯一不變的就是變化本身」，但我比較是法國諺語的「粉絲」：“plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose”（事情改變越多，越顯得其本質不變）

金融世界的遊戲不斷變化，人們（甚至是專業人士）都很難跟上，每一種情況都似乎不同，你可以按照數百位華爾街記者，分析師和金融專業提供幾千上萬的意見（這就是為什麼我從來沒有跟隨他們任何一個），甚至我保險公司的業務員同事都需要跟上這些很難理解的資訊（如果你想在客戶面前看起來像個專業），人們對已知的事情已經不感興趣，他們都渴望針不斷變化的遊戲。

對我來說，這些資訊都是不必要的，更重要的是 – 根本沒用，每次有人說這一次是不同的！他們可以給你一萬個理由為甚麼你需要看看目前的情況跟之前如何不同，以符合自己的利益，推銷員將會繼續告訴你這正是最佳的買入時機，因為這一次是不同的！所有平庸的基金經理都會厚顏無恥地會告訴你是最佳的投資時機，因為這一次是不同的！ （不管他們之前才輸掉大一部分來自投資人的錢），更甚者，普通人卻不停繼續跌落這些虛妄的想法，因為他們也認為「這一次是不同的」，而且是每一次！

了解每次危機表面上都是不同，但本質上沒有分別會為你節省很多壓力，市場由人組成而人的本性永遠不會改變，世界金融市場以不同的「外表和藉口」不停重複相同的行為，聲調及行動，但在本質上它們都是一樣的，不管甚麼人告訴你，他們都是一樣的！

我們經過20年代的大蕭條， 70年代的能源危機，1987年的黑色星期一，1997年的亞洲金融風暴，2000年的互聯網泡沫，2003年的沙士疫潮，2008年的金融危機，2010年的歐債危機，我們都在等待更大的危機到來，但不管將來有甚麼危機，市場行為只受兩個因素影響，「恐懼」和「貪婪」，沒有別的，不管甚麼人告訴你。

每次危機一堆慌張的投資者想像世界末日就要到來，而所謂的「專業人士」，記者，媒體再給大家一推，恐懼令每個人都感到窒息跟住拋售手上的股票，因為它太「危險了」！但當市場上漲是，大家似乎忘記了所謂的風險，並想加入遊戲，因為每個人似乎都在賺錢，不參加這個派對實在是太愚蠢了，當然「專業人士」，記者和媒體也會好好配合給予他們推一把，有甚麼不好呢？如果這可以把大家都逗樂（尤其是當他們「醉倒」在紙上財貴）。

預測下一次危機是不可能的，如果你能預見未來，你就不需要投資了，幸好智慧的投資者並不需要知道未來就足以致富，其實花費了太多的時間嘗試預測明天是否會下雨是完全浪費時間的，這就是我不明白眾多金融機構推出這些經濟預測報告的原因，雖然內容豐富，但是完全無用，但這令他們得到薪水，世界是這樣運作的，我們需要大量無用的工作，否則隨著世界人口的增長速度，失業率將不太會好看。

無論如何，我預期未來一年會充滿挑戰，美國資產的升幅已經達到一個荒謬的水平，由於5年之久的量化寬鬆政策，我不會花時間來討論美國聯儲局創造了這個危機的細節，我只能說，一個超巨型泡沫是由聯邦政府創造是在自由市場的歷史中是極為罕見，事實上，我想不出在人類歷史上任何例子，但美國做到了，所有自2008年的印鈔，他們已經創造了一個超巨型的泡沫，使數據看起來比較正確，但它對真實經濟的幫助並沒有那麼多（也許有一點點），但大部分的收益都走進資產持有人，公司和已經很富有的人，留下的是一個更高的債務，而且事實上她們無法支撐任何的加息，但他們已經決定這樣做，這種自我膨脹的泡沫最終將會爆裂，我不知道甚麼時候會發生，但我知道它會來到，我已經能感覺到它，所以準備在不久的將來會非常波幅。在這段時間我會擁抱黃金，因為在恐懼的時候，黃金將成為許多投資者的「保障」，而我預期將會有很多的恐懼來到，靜候進一步的消息！