2013年7月2日 星期二

MECHCalvin Fund Report June, 2013 - Millionaire

 Dear Investors,

Although the market value of mechcalvin fund have reached $1M, however the market crashed earilier than i expected, the latest fund price have dropped to $1.2310 (-0.0739, -5.66%), the market have dropped -8.66% in a single month, -10% at worst, but well, i consider it is a success.

Even the best fund drop when the market drops, it is the matter if the market drop -10%, you only drop 5, when the market rise 10%, you rise 20% that make the difference. 


When i was a kid, i always thought 1 million is a lot of money, they used to call rich people millionaires, yet apparently, 1 million is not a lot anymore, we now call rich people billionaires, after 4 years, my fund have reached 1 million, 500k stocks and mutual funds here, 400k loan there, with 2 gold rings, and other random stuffs and cash, then you have a million, but i couldn't feel a thing. 

What can 1 million do these days? if $10 for 3 apples, i can buy 300,000 apples, or 10,000 pizzas, 2,000 iphones, 2 toyota or 1 BMW. You can ate an apple in 3 mins, a pizza in 30 mins, an iphone become worthless in just 2 years, a BMW will only worth half its original price after it touches the ground, or i can turn it into 2 million, not a bad idea!

this world consist of 3 types of people, spenders, savers and investors. spender focus on now, savers doesn't want to risk, only investors willing to risk for a better future. in fact investing is "delay spending", when a spender look at $1, he sees what this $1 can bring him now, when a saver see $1, he sees one more $1 in his pocket, only when an investor look at $1, he sees the possibilties of this $1 will become in the future.
regards,
Calvin

2013年6月2日 星期日

MECHCalvin Fund Report May, 2013 - Four Years of Risk Already

Fund price of this month 本月基金價格: 


$1.3049 -0.0155 (-1.17%)




Dear Investors,

4/6/2013 will be the end of my four years running this fund, and July will be the end of 5th year of joinning the insurance industry.

the latest unit fund price is $1.3049 (-0.0155, -1.17%)

the market have gone negative, so does gold and stock market, this month i have sold a few things and brought a few things, thus my fund price finally drops, yet if you have invested this fund early, you still remain 30% gain, it again prove if you buy something low enough, few % up and downs is hard to care.

i have switch my Manulife Asian Small Cap back to cash in order to lock a 56% profit, i have also sold Standard Chartered Bank shares (HKG: 2888) and lock a 19% profit, with a dividend pay of $1300.


i have used these profits brought couple undervalue properties stocks, including The Link REIT (領匯), Fortune REIT (置富置富產業信託), and holding cash, it comes to my guts feeling the market have lost direction, and people are become overconfident in the stock market, these are signs before a market crash, so i am trying to play defensive.


i cannot believe it have already been 4 years, i am thinking if i see no more good opportunity on the market in the coming year, i will sell everything to lock profit next year this time, and return the money to you guys (investors) first, and see what it will lead me to.

i always use 5 as a milestone for anything, e.g. i like to review my career every 5 years, i use 50k as a unit with come to investment, so it will be good for me to review what i have learnt in the last 5 years from investment next year.


the Heng Seng Index was 18378.73 in 4/6/2009, and reached 22392.16 in 31/5/2013 with a 21.84% growth, while my fund have growth 30%, it is better than the market, and sure beat any kind of bonds, bank deposit saving (obviously), currencies/ gold investments, yet i am not gonna lie, there are many professional funds have done so much better than me (even after management fee), at the same time there are professional funds have done much worser than me. yet to be fair, the return of my fund will be much much better if i have only focus in stocks investment only, and ignore all those loan, gold, currencies, busines, etcetc... however the experience i got from those will benefit you much more in long run.


how to deal with risk have always been the major tropic in any kind of investment, and in life too, people got a lot of misunderstand with risk, i am glad i work in the insurance company have taught me so many things about risk management, the history of insurance companies dealing with risk is like the history of men dealing with women: they don't want to live with each other, but at the same time they can't live without each other.


i would like to take this opportunity to explain what i have learnt so far, it is going to bore a lot of people, so if you don't want to read a long essay, or you don't have the time, you can stop reading now and go back to do whatever you are doing.


best regards,

Calvin

fund site: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/


Risk - love and hate.


many people got a pretty bad experience with investment and blame investment is a scam, is because they have not realise the existing of risk, they always say they understand, but i can ensure you 90% of them don't, otherwise their life would be much easier.


The Government warned them, the financial companies warn them (although in this case it is like the casino warn gamblers don't gamble too much, it is a real life dark joke), yet i am pretty sure both the government and the financial companies do not pay too much attention to risk than any citizen (although they understand more, this make some of them much more evil than those who have no idea).


these are few common misconception of risk.


1. Risk is gone!

this kind of misconception happens when the market is doing well, it seems even someone who never invest before can earn in the market earily, the general public have this idea the risk on the market have been lowered (even dissappear), so they gain confident and everyone rush into the market, because nobody want to miss the opportunity to gain some money.


the problem of this atmosphere comes from the advestising of many investment firm, in both extreme,
in one extreme, the stock dealers want people to believe: everyone can be a good investor,
while on the other extreme, the fund managers want people to believe: no one can do better than them, so you better hand over the job of investment to the professionals,
both extremes are based on the same factor - money. The stock dealers got commission when someone trade with them, while the fund managers gain money from management fee, either way they try very hard to convince the general public you should deal with them, either you do it on your own, or they do it for you.

yet the general public always forget one thing, like energy, risk never disappear, it can only be CONVERTED or DIVERSIFIED,
an investment bank convert their risk back to the investors, this is their beliefs, either you gain or loss, it is your problem, not ours,
while an insurance company diversify their risk to many insurers, they say, it is ok for 1 people to loss when the rest can compensate for him, and i am pretty i will gain more than loss some.


if you know the risk can never dissappear, you will pay attention where the risk goes to at particular time, and make sure you don't bear more risk than you have to. saying investment is the cause of lossing is like saying disease is the cause of bad health. Risk is like bacteria, disease is the outcome of unmanaged bacteria, loss is the outcome of unmanaged risk.


2. Avoid risk it all cost!

you have people try to risk everything and hope he will get more in the end, while you also have people who is extremely afraid to risk anything in order to avoid any kind of loss,


I am not gonna lie i did have the same misconept before i run this fund, it is our human nature we don't want to lose, even a dent. Risk suggest we will, and we try our best to avoid them, which is not entirely wrong. However try to avoid risk is like try to avoid bacteria, you just can't, there are germ and virus everywhere, it is on the table, it is in the air, you can never run from risk is like you can never run from bacteria. An investor aware of risk should be like a doctor aware of bacteria.


So if we can't run from it, what should we do? there are two ways of dealing with risk.

firstly, although you can't avoid risk completely, but you can avoid major risk easily, it is like you can't avoid virus in general but you surely run away from some dangerous place, no one ask you to go into a nuclear plant, nor ask you eat food that have dropped on the floor, because you know by doing that, you are taking more risk than you normally need. So does your investment, no one ask you must pursuit a 40% annual return, or invest into something you have no idea, you can just simply don't do it.


secondly, make sure you can handle the risk you are facing.

everyday we face treat, it can be hit by a car, infected by virus, or hit by a flower pot dropped from the building above you, unless you plan to lock yourself at home 24 hours a day (even the house might collapse :P), you have to face these normal risks everyday, however you don't get too scare walk outside, because you know you can bear it, and in most case, you won't walk into dangerous place you know of.


in normal condition, our body provide mechanism to fight virus, it is not we do not get in touch with virus itself that keep us healthy, but it is our immune system can defend them. Same for investment, if you only risk a little bit of your money, you are still safe because you know you can afford this. As Warren Buffett said, "if i know a truck weight 1 tonne run across my bridge, i will make sure my bridge can withstand 3 tonnes."


when i asked you guys to join my fund, the amount the majority of you have given me is only a small portion of your wealth, you say: "what the hell if Calvin lose them all! it is not a big deal!". and some gave me a larger portion of your wealth (definitely not all) is because you have confident in me more than the rest, so in your subconscious, MECHCalvin Fund and Calvin has a lower risk than rest of the investment you know of, yet either way, any investor need to and is taking risk, a better investors are those who clearly understand they are taking lesser risk, while having a better expectation of return. However, nobody on this earth can avoid risk at all cost, you can only avoid risk you cannot handle.


3. Higher the Risk, Higher the potential return!

I gotta say this is the biggest misconcept in modern financial, and ironically this is brought to you by the mainstream investment companies. They say, "if your investment has low risk, then you should expect lower return, thus if you want more, you must risk more." I am pretty sure hell has a special place for these morons. Higher risk DOES NOT give you higher return, and in most case, it gives you higher chance of loss. if Risk = chance of losing, higher chancing of losing will give you higher chance of return? what kind of logic is that?


they will make few convincing examples, take lottery for example, the chance you will lose (risk) is high, but if you are lucky, you will have very good return, or a startup business is risky, but if you have succeed, the return is very rewarding, or the ultimate worst example, stocks is risky, but the return is very good! bond is less risky, so the return is not as good as stocks! bank saving has leaset risk, so the return is very bad! thus, risk more if you want more!


the devil talk is always convincing, and with a bit of seductive elements added into it, i can be a devil, but i prefer to be an angel majority of my time, and play the devil in a less harmful way, or just for fun! :P


you buy lottery is not taking a huge risk, unless you spent all your money to buy tickets, it is a risk you can afford even though you know you have a good chance of losing, and more importantly, it doesn't proof more risk you take, the higher return you will have.


A startup business is risky when you don't know what you are doing, most successful bosses do business they have confidents in, while most people fail because they do not understand the industry they are about to enter, as Warren Buffett said: "Risk comes from people don't know what they are doing." startup business is not particular a higher risk than getting into normal pay job, risk comes from when you don't know what you are doing.


and i will explain the last one in my 4th misconception.


4. Volatility is Risk!

when people in investment firm tell me (same for my company Manulife, it is a shame really), bank saving has lesser risk, so the return is lesser, bond is higher, and stocks has the highest, so we can conclude higher the risk, better the return! this mega-huge delusion comes from modern finance, it is packaged with a pretty name: "insurance portfolio" (same as many drugs that kill people), it works like that, if you want lesser risk, you must make your portofio less volatile.


it is human nature we feel unsafe when things are not stable, yet it is our feeling that always trick us. All these non-sense fit our nature, but usually untrue, think about it, does it mean if something volatile less really means it is safer?


now think about the Titanic, was her claimed to be the safest ship and less volatile ship ever built in mankind? i am sure if you were one of the passenagers, enjoying the dinner and company with the captain before she hits the iceberg, the floor was solid as rock! now think of the bank in Eastern Europe, are they really safer than the stocks of a good company in USA?


Volatility have no connection to risk, at all! things can be pretty safe with high volatility, while things can be pretty unsafe in stable form. all explosive are in stable form, until someone light a match, insurance, bank saving, bonds, stocks can be safe and unsafe neglect their volatility.


a company that is in financial stuggle, her bond with 3% return isn't very safe, a bank (like in 2007) provide 2% saving doesn't mean it is very safe, a stock from a well finance company can goes up and down 10% can be very safe, i think you have got the idea. so understand what's behind is more important than pay attention to its volatility.

Enough have said, if you are still reading, i appluse you, as you have growth as much as I am in the past 4 years, and for rest, i wish you all the luck, because you will need it.

2013年5月2日 星期四

MECHCalvin Fund Report April, 2013 - Freemium is the future

Fund price of this month 本月基金價格: 


$1.3204 +0.0082 (+0.625%)

Dear Investors,

This month i have spent 2 weeks in USA, to visit a friend's wedding, also get some sightseeing done, as well as opened a bank account (apparently HSBC is a very small bank in USA). I have been to San Fransisco and L.A., when i was walking toward the Fisherman's Wharf, I saw this beautiful cruise ship "Sapphire Princess" (the twin sister ship of Diamond Princess.)


She is one of the world's largest cruise ships, with a capacity of approximately 2,670 passengers.so i thought, one day this fund will grow so big, e.g. own a cruise company, i can bring you guys for a cruise tour (unless you don't like sea too much, haha)

since during this trip, my investors no. have reached 100! i am thinking the future of this fund.

there is a new business model called Freemium i am going to use, The word "freemium" is a portmanteau neologism combining the two aspects of the business model: "free" and "premium". which means the service is offered free, but if you want to have extra service, you need to become a membership that require investors to pay.

the way it works is this fund will own a lot of different companies, a normal investors do not need to be charged heavy management fee, but if you want some extra, e.g. discount from the shops and the companies MECHCalvin fund are currently invested, investors will need to pay a membership fee, then you will be given a card, this will encourage investors to spend in the shop they invested in, the profit will help the performance of this fund, eventually benefit the investors themselves, if some investors do not wish to pay, they surely still able to enjoy the growth of this fund, rather than let heavy management fee take away their return, it is a win-win.

at the moment there ain't a lot of business this fund is involving, but as time goes by, you will see more and more business will work with me, mainly my insurance clients, then the membership will become more attractive. And of course for you guys, as the first 100 investors, you will be given the memberships for free, as a thank you of trust at early stage :)

anyway, thanks to the dividend and interest pay, also the strong Manulife Asian Small Cap Fund, even the gold, stocks and currencies drop slightly, this month the fund still remain a positive gain, to $1.3204 per unit. It have also clearly show to overrun the market index.

Green line is MECHCalvin Fund, Black line is Hang Seng Index

Anyway, couple more pictures then I am out.

regards,
Calvin


postcard like cable cars



cycling next to the Golden Gate Bridge


Me at Golden Gate Bridge




Me at Apple Inc. headquarter with Steve Job's biography



Now and Then from my last visit to San Francisco back in 1995 (when i was 13)

2013年4月2日 星期二

2013年03月基金報告: Swim Against the Tide!

Fund price of this month 本月基金價格: 

$1.3122 +0.0082 (+0.629%)

Dear Investors,

the market have dropped -3.23% while my fund claw up 0.629%, it is extremely difficult to against the tide, but i think sometimes with a bit of "luck" and rightly place asset allocation, it is still achievable, the stocks, private fund drop along with the market, however the Manulife Asian small cap mutual fund showed no fear and increased a massive 2.49% this month, yet it alone is still not enough to win the battle.

it comes down to

1. the 8% interest being paid this month from the loan,

2. the defensive nature of the gold investment

3. Japanese Yen I brought is appreciating, period, and

4. investor's new subscription

have combined and save the day

I hope i can gather a group of intelligent investors here, that understand the game behind, also have the guts to establish a long term investment, like my preference of job, relationship, friendship and many things in life, i always target to build up something long term.

Happy Easter and thanks!

Calvin

Asset Allocation

% Current Value
Cash 7.43% $69,373.00
Loan 39.63% $370,000.00
Business 1.37% $12,829.00
Gold 3.53% $32,956.00
Mutual Fund 19.16% $178,905.30
Private Fund 6.13% $57,184.56
Stock 22.74% $212,280.00
Total 100.00% $933,527.86

Morpheus Fund (original installment $50,000)
2013
01 -1.9% $61,346.29
02 -4.0% $58,892.44
03 -2.9% $57,184.56
大市未有起色,我們也不能獨善其身,會更保守。

2013年3月2日 星期六

2013年02月基金報告

Fund price of this month 本月基金價格: 
HK$1.3036 (+0.29%)
Fund size: HK$924,680.33
No. of investors: 98
 
Still too busy to write a monthly report, since the fund have been run for couple years and pretty much on track, so I have decided i will get out details quarterly instead of monthly to save time.

i have purchase gold again due to the gold price drop, gold and properties (land) are the only two things that can preserve value in long run. Gold as the ultimate currency and properties (land) is the ultimate asset.

that's why in the biblical history, when God favor a person, He never promise to give him money, cows, sheep, but lands - promise land! or in the old days even nowadays, people call those who own land - landlord!

although in the past history, the appreciation of stocks or business venture always outrun gold and properties, yet its risky nature make many investors tend to feel safer investing in gold and properties. Anyway, here are few figures.

Investors count: 98
Fund size: 924,680.33
Latest unit price: $1.3036 (+0.29%)

Asset allocation:
Cash (all currencies): 6.48%
Loan: 40.01%
Business Venture: 1.28%
Gold: 3.58%
Manulife Mutual Fund: 18.87%
Morpheus Fund: 6.37%
Stocks: 23.41%
Total: 100%

The market is adjusting, so I will go defensive mode.

Morpheus Fund 2013 (initial capital $50,000 since Aug, 2012):
01 -1.9% $61,346.29
02 -4.0% $58,892.44
Comment: 較為不順的一月,往後會保守一點,宜至情況改善。

2013年2月2日 星期六

2013年01月基金報告

Too busy this month, so I will only state few important things

Fund price of this month 本月基金價格: 
HK$1.3007 (+3.97%)

Fund size: HK$922,644.72
No. of investors: 98

New Supporting Business: 

A. Cittababy 寶寶之城: www.facebook.com/cittababy, www.cittababy.com

it is a family business run by my cousin, if you want to buy babywear that is direct import from USA, check our website out and you will have a 10% discount.



B. 小倆口 S-Yoco: http://www.facebook.com/pages/%E5%B0%8F%E5%80%86%E5%8F%A3-S-Yoco/519120701442921, www.s-yoco.com

the only Taiwanese burger shop in HK, start running by one of my primary schoolmate in Feb, 2013.

Address is 96, Electric Raod @ Ching Fung Street, Tin Hau (香港天后電氣道96號@清風街地舖), come for a burger if you are around.



Both business are currently support by this fund, me act as business consultant and handle their insurance for both business.

HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR!!!

2013年1月9日 星期三

2012年12月基金報告: 以一個馬鼻跑贏

Fund Price of This Month 本月基金價格
 HK$ 1.2654 

Basic Information 基本資料

Launch Date 發行日期
2009/6/4
Launch Price 發行價值
1.00
Currency 貨幣
HKD 港元
Investment Management Fee 投資管理費
0.00%
Market Value 市值
HKD 882,782.83  港元
NAV per unit 單位資產淨值
1.2654


 
Calendar Year Performance 年度表現

Years
2009
2010
2011
2012
Fund
7.24%
22.07%
-27.34%
24.53%

HS Index
9.49%
18.09%
-27.48%
22.98%










Cumulative Performance 累積表現


YTD
年初至今
Months
6
個月
1 yr
1
3 yrs
3
Since Launch
成立至今
Fund
24.53%
21.32%
24.53%
19.89%
26.54%
HS Index
22.98%
17.50%
22.98%
13.79%
23.28%
 
Manager's Comment 投資經理簡報

重要的會在2012年報說, 簡單本月總結2012年十分不錯, 但也只是跑贏大市一個馬鼻。受惠美國QE3,全球股市上升,本基金的股票,基金及私募基金上升至15%-38%不等。帶動本基金在2012年上升24.53%。

亮點是私募基金莫菲斯基金,自8月來,5個月一共上升25.07%,以五五分帳計算,真實是共升了50.14%。

*莫菲斯基金簡報by Kkman

Keeps moving strong, end 2012 with a high note. Let's be ready for 2013!