2014年5月3日 星期六

MECHCalvin Fund April, 2014 Report - South Korea Ferry Disaster

Latest fund price: HK$1.5651 (-0.0024, 0.153%)
Total Asset Value: HK$1,313,249.63
Total no. of units: 839,095.9750 units

Dear Investors,
I have couple new subscription with around 100k combine within the last few days of April, they are all from my current investors, quite happy about it with the trust and it boast my new record high to 1.3M in asset just a month before the end of my 5 years journey in June.

i am already getting all the data ready for a details report next months, also a more in depth writing about the stories I have been going through in the last 5 years of my "amateur investment career".

anyway, i would like to spend today talk about the South Korean ferry disaster, the ferry MV Sewol 「世越號」(前譯歲月號) , the numbers of casualties have not yet finalized, but we all know most of the students is not going to survive and at the moment result at least 292 death. the heartbreaking video of the final moment between students have been released when they call their parents to tell them they love them is just too much for the world to handle.

so many criticism, to the Korean government, esp. their implement to handle such disaster, it goes to hurt the security and morale of the nation, but what it really did is to expose the fragile of human nature and unawareness of the nation.

More importantly, the main reason for this massive numbers of casualties is due to the extremely selfish behavior of the captain, he ordered the students to stay in the room, yet he himself and others sailors were headed to the safe boats and left everyone on board sunk with the ship. further more, when the captain is picked up by the coaster guard, he want to conceal his identity to pretend as one of the normal passengers.

the reason why the ferry sunk is still under investigation, however it appear to be the ferry was overloaded with goods and do not have enough safe boats, otherwise even the selfish captain might allow the students get on board first knowing he will have a space in the safe boats. and i am pretty sure breaking the load limit regulation was a consistent acts rather than single time event.

this is one of those moments the ugliness of human nature truly show but many people (even those who judge in anger) might behave just the same as the captain when facing the same situation, in fact a research showing in the last 10 ship related disasters, most captain abandon the ships rather than put their passenger safety first.

Ironically the only exception was the Titanic event, claim for her "unsinkable" engineer, when the ship sunk, the captains and their crews actually did let the women and children get on board first, and in the movie famously shown a group of Christian band play violins to clam the passengers down end up sacrificing themselves was also true in history, unfortunately this beautiful yet sorrow pictures only happened for the first class rich passengers, for rest of the unseen second and third class poor passengers, 90% of them sunk with the ship and lost their lives.

the reason why i put this down as the tropic for my fund report this month is going back to the fundamental of investment - Risk, whether the most brilliant and honorable crews or the most selfish captain, whether it was created by the highest engineer standards or it is just a normal ferry, the bottom line is it doesn't matter how well you calculate or prepare, you always need to prepare for the worst, in ship case, enough safety boats, in investment case, enough insurance.

most people use ships as a metaphor to funds is because its risky nature, the captains and fund managers are responsible for the safety of the passengers' lives and investors' money, all these events told me, no captain should be arrogant enough to think his ability will overcome any situation, nor he should be coward enough to abandon rest of the people when disaster strikes, and if he is confident enough, he should be prepared for the worst scenario. 

a key concept of investment is known for "margin of safety", or i call it in a more negative way "room for errors" will be introduced in my next fund report, i just felt these life stories should be told and discussed before the journey in the next 5 years begins.

regards,
Calvin

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