MECHCalvin Fund Report Aug, 2018 – 暴風前夕 Before the Storm

June Fund Price/ 6月基金價格: $2.0059 

July Fund Price/7月基金價格: $1.9972 

Aug (Latest) Fund Price/ 8月(最新)基金價格: $1.9499 

Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $2,357,900.29 

Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,209,252.5431 Units

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當我在寫這篇簡短報告時，超級颱風山竹正吹襲香港，24小時前我還在陽光下踢足球，現在風雨一直衝擊著我的窗戶。據說風暴前通常是平靜的，有時你甚至可以看到雙彩虹，風暴會從周圍環境吸入空氣，當暖風被拉入風暴時，它形成一個像真空似的區域，潮濕的空氣被拉起並在底部留下相對穩定的干燥空氣，但實際上每次都不會發生。

這個風暴的前一天香港變得超級熱，感覺就像有人試圖掐住你的喉嚨。這種天氣現像和金融界非常相似，10月將是2008年金融危機的10週年紀念，自此美國政府扭曲了金融世界的規則，自3月香港股市已從頂峰下跌了25％，但這不是股災，只是調整，隨著美中貿易戰的繼續，及美國處於有史以來最長的牛市，現在存在很多不確定性。

一切似乎都很好，但歷史總會重演，沒有人知道風暴甚麼時候會發生，怎樣發生，在哪裡發生，更重要我們不需要知道為甚麼會發生，因為任何有經驗的投資者都知道甚麼時候應該進入防守模式，就像有經驗的農民知道是時候要保護它的莊稼，漁夫會停泊他的船和母親會收起家人的衣服，正如許多超級投資者已經作出警告，下一場風暴只會變得更大。 

The super Typhoon Mangkhut is hitting Hong Kong at the time I am writing this short report, 24 hours ago I was still playing football under the sun, and now the wind and rain keep striking my windows. It is said usually it is calm before the storm, sometimes you can even see double rainbow, a storm draw air in from the surrounding environment, when warm air is pulled into the storm, it forms a vacuum like area, where moist air is being pulled up and leave relatively stable dry air at the bottom, but in reality it doesn’t happen every time. 

This time Hong Kong gets super-hot the day before the storm strike, it felt like someone try to choke your throat. This weather phenomenon is quite similar in financial world, in Oct it will be the 10 years “anniversary” of the crisis back in 2008 where US government twisted the rules of the financial world, since March the Hong Kong stock market has reached the peak and has dropped 25%, yet it is not a crash, it is just a correction, with the US-China trade war going on, and US is in the longest bull market ever, there is a lot of uncertainty. 

Everything seems fine, but history always repeat itself, no one knows when the storm will strike, and how, and where, more importantly we don't need to know why, because any experienced investors should have the sense to know it is time to go defensive mode, just like an experience farmer knows it is time to protect its crops, fisherman will park his boat and mothers will gather her family’s clothes, as many super investors has already warned, the next storm will only get bigger.