MECHCalvin Fund Report April, 2015 - You think it’s crazy? You have seen nothing yet :)

Latest fund price: $1.8567 (+0.2349, 14.48%)

*new high, previous high on Feb, 2015 at $1.6357

Total Market Value: $1,665,188.06

Total units: 896,857.2372 units

Dear Investors,

The market is making a lot of people happy in the previous month, both China and HK stocks have risen somewhere between 18-20% in a single month, small stocks gain 50%-80% are quite common in such bullish time.

How can I have missed that? Most of my stocks have raised anywhere between 3-10%, yet one stand out particular.

1246:HK is in construction business, I have already paid attention a year ago, after many research, I decided to bet big and brought 120k shares at an average cost of $0.935 per shares.

However it doesn't do anything for a whole year, I was very disappointed and heavily doubt my decision, at the worst time I had a paper lost as much as -$21000, but after repeating research and confirming my understanding, I believe this company is heavily undervalue, although feeling difficult, but I didn't sell any shares, finally it has surged a massive 238% in a single month!

When it started its momentum from $0.9 to $1.2 on 13/4/2015, I knew I was right all along, then it burst up to $1.5, I immediately sold one third (40k shares) at $1.45, taken a profit of $20,000 but I regret about it immediately, because it sky rocking to $1.66 per shares the next day and never go back to $1.5, then it rally up to $2.8 in the next few days, I sold another 40k shares at $2.5, taken second profit of $62,000, it finally topped at $2.96!

I have cash out $140k (realized $82k profit), while still owning 40k shares that worth $100k, so I have earned $240k while my initial investment was only $112k (+114%), that’s the biggest win by far!

As for my fund as small as ~$1.4 million, for every 14k profit will boast this fund up 1%, my fund raised 14.48% last month, this single investment have already contribute 10% of the gain. 

I am very happy not because I make money, but because my research have paid off, the long year mental struggle didn't make me give up, and my effort have finally paid off! As I said, for you to invest successfully, you will go through many small winners and small losses, but one major winner can turn the table around completely. I expect this is only the beginning of a bigger bull market in the next 2 years, so if you think it’s crazy? You have seen nothing yet :)

The following chart is to show you how long I have waited!

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/

MECHCalvin Fund Report Mar, 2015 - New life stage, so will my investment!

Latest fund price: $1.6218 (-0.0139, 0.85%)
Total Market Value: $1,473,535.60
Total units: 908572.5143 units

Dear Investors,

So I got married, the difference is now I have less time for computer games, haha. Never less my life have moved on to a brand new stage, but how will it affect my fund?

I expect most of you can hardly remember the 3 major features of this fund, few might remember the first one,

1. No management fee

Even fewer might remember the second one,

2. Minimum investment amount is HK$1

But I guess the third feature is least memorable

3. My investment style will adapt according to my personal life experience.

It literately means this fund is growing on me, like iron man's suit grew on Tony Stark, lately I felt I have become more conservative than i used to be, i guess having a family have changed me a bit, and i cannot be as "adventurous" as I used to be, and I started to think of the future a little more, as least some sort of expectation.

For this fund, I am hoping before year 2020, the fund can grow to around 10 million Hong Kong dollars in capital, and move from angel investors to venture capitalists, that's my plan, so let's see how I will do in this "risky business"

Regards.

Calvin

p.s. Me and my wife will visit UK and Sweden in late May for honeymoon, stock rise, Euro and Pound drop, can the timing be better than this? :)

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2015 - Do Nothing is Doing Something

Latest fund price: $1.6357 (+0.0289, 1.8%) 

*new high, previous high on Jan, 2015 at $1.6068

Total Market Value: $1,493,813.08 

Total units: 913,230.7695 units

Dear Investors,

I am getting marry this Sunday (8/3/2015), so have been quite busy (and lazy) last month, i didn't do anything other than withdraw $30,000 for an investor from the account.

The stock still going up so once again we have reached the new high, the two major contributor are

1. YST DAIRY (1431.HK) and

2. NGAISHUN HOLD (1246.HK)

The first one is a company produce milk from China, the milk price have been low for awhile since too many supply, the farmers in China had to pour away tons and tons of milk because the cows just don't care about the milk price other than making more milk, even though the company still making profit, it seems the market have highly undervalue this company, there is a saying: "your profit comes from the foolish behavior of the market", this is one of many examples have proven this saying is too true. I expect this stock will at least double my investment portion within 3 years.

The second one is a tiny building company from Hong Kong, i love what they do (literately constructive), and once again, she is not the "hottest pick" from the large fund managers, the funny thing about the fund managers these days are everyone just want to be mediocre, they buy when everyone buy, die when everyone die, but from my 6 years of experience, the best investment usually comes from the companies people don't talk about, not shown in Bloomberg, and most of the analyst consider them as "boring". I also expect this stock will double my profit within 5 years, so lets wait and see.

Although as my title suggest, sometimes do nothing is doing something, most people think of investment meaning you have to look at the price every single minutes, or require people to make a lot of decision everyday, this is false, in fact if you change your investment decision every day, you probably will end up broke, most of the time a true investor just sit there, do nothing and watch them grow.

However, as the fund price go higher, i have felt more pressure, today one of my insurance clients want to give me a 5 digits of money to help her invest, which i refuse strongly, i don't know why, maybe i already feel very comfortable with what i have got and am afraid to disappoint new investors and pressurized by their expectation, or maybe because when i am going to have a family, the desire of taking risk have greatly reduced.

Anyway, hope my new chapter of life will bring me more wisdom in everything.

best regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Jan, 2015 - Being Cautious about China

Latest fund price: $1.6068 (+0.0301, 1.91%)
*new high, previous high on Nov, 2014 at $1.6053
Total Market Value: $1,497,419.56
Total units: 931,900.9058 units

Dear Investors,
2015 start strongly with new high, and the total market cap is very very close to 1.5 million, i didn't do anything, it is just the result of few undervalued stocks i brought last year start to rise, so there is not much to share in term of finance, i will only add one point, China A-shares have raised 50% within 3 months last year, i think it was over-hyped so need to be cautious about it, as the influence of China to Hong Kong will only get stronger each day.

I have been very careful with China companies, firstly most of their public data cannot be trusted, their company reports have many hidden items (corruption, bribing, fake accounting) every investors should watch out, secondly in macro view i never believe in "planned economy" 計劃經濟, i am a huge believer of free market, that the supply and demand can be self-adjusted, as the old saying, "if you want to guarantee a result, eventually you will have to make up numbers." i believe the China government get into a habit of making up numbers in order to reach their "economic targets".

For sure there are many Chinese companies want to do good, and sometimes they do come with surprises, at the moment, the China portion in this fund is less 10%, and no surprise from my Chinese picks yet, still learning to be honest, hope 2015 will come in fantastic.

regards,
Calvin

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/MECHCalvinFund
Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/mechcalvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2014 - Durability & Simplicity

Latest fund price: $1.5767 (-0.0286, 1.78%)

Total Market Value: $1,469,372.99 

Total units: 931,900.9058 units

2014 Fund Performance: +3.77% (exclude 1.288% dividend)

2014 HS Index Performance: +1.05%

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year for start! another year (or 365 days have passed), this year is very mediocre for my fund,although still out perform the index, i did it much poorer than i expected :(

i have run this fund for 6.5 years, it has only grow +57.67%, many might be happy with this return, yet with this small fund size, i expect i could have done much better. well, too many mistakes and inexperience, sometimes without patient or unnecessary fear, make me still feel like an amateur..

​yet my strategy works well, esp. handling opportunity, because it is very simple, i buy undervalue stock at low price and wait for them to become overvalue then sell it for profit, i ain't going to change my investment style, i will only optimize it. 

every year, so many so-called experts try to predict the future, i listen to the wise man Warren Buffett, "Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time."

What i concern more is the durability, Warren Buffett also stated "invest in stocks as you would in a farm" he brought a farm in his home town Omaha 20 years ago, sometimes it will give you good years and sometimes bad years, “Now, 28 years later, the farm has tripled its earnings and is worth five times or more what I paid,”

I am doing the same with the HK stocks, i wish in the coming years, i would able to say, 2014 was just another year didn't come out great but overall we are doing OK.

regards,

Calvin

p.s. I have started teaching from my youtube channel, you can have a look if interested in investment

投資 with MECHCalvin: 

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB

個股分析: 

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7dPtoY_cFMgh9GMClTjry

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/

MECHCalvin Fund Report Nov, 2014 - Against the tide!

Latest fund price: $1.6053 (+0.077, 5.04%) new high, previous high $1.5675 on Mar, 2014

Total Market Value: $1,495,977.59 

Total units: 931,900.9058 units

Correction:

due to a minor calculation error in Sept, the fund price for Sept and Oct have been slightly adjusted

Sept, 2014 $1.5312 (previously $1.539)

Oct, 2014 $1.5283 (previously $1.5297)

Dear Investors,

This month my fund have broken few personal records, 

1. it has broke through $1.6 for the first time reaching a new high, due to one of my stock have been skyrocketing, 

2. the stock have been skyrocketing was my largest single investment ($100k) so far

3. it has also captured the single largest profit up to date (+$110k, 110%)

While the market have been up and down, it went down due to occupy central (or umbrella revolution), then the shanghai-hong kong stock connect (滬港通) didn't do well as the market expected.

this is what i call "against the tide", i want to be one of those people just completely ignore the majority (aka the market), most fund managers give excuses saying, "hey i can't do well because the market has been bad." but they do go, they ain't gonna say because the market is doing well, they just give credit to themselves, they are just laughable.

there is a little story behind this small success, this stock (1271.HK) have been doing very well from day 1, in the last 6 months, i have already sitting on a paper profit of $25,000 (25%), if i sell it on any day, i can tell people, look! i have made $25000! to be honest 25% in 3 months is very good for most people, it is so tempting to just sell it, but i kept telling myself to be patient, sometimes i feel it is even harder to remain calm when you are winning, since losing in investment is so common to most people once they got a little bit of profit they want out, fortunately i didn't fall for the "temptation", i waited and waited and waited, finally it broke through the roof top and rise a massive 75% within a month!

this is a really good lesson for myself how important patient is... not only in investment

of course you can't expect every stock i pick is this good, tell you the truth, if i have selected 10 companies, and i have been wrong for 4 of them, 5 of them are doing ok, but i have been very right for one stock like this can give me 100+ % profit, i will be do just fine.

anyway, there is only one month left, my year-to-date fund performance is roughly 5.5% (6.7% include dividend paid in June), the market is doing roughly 2.9%, my fund performance is still just fair, but then again you have half of the mutual funds on the market is giving you 3% return, charge you 2% management fee, then claim they can have 12% average annual return, i am doing ok, and i will be happy if i can do 9% each year.

regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Oct, 2014 - Patient is a Virtue

Latest Fund Price: $1.5297 (-0.19%)
Market Value: $1,425,515.21
No. of Units: 931,900.9058


Dear Investors,
We dropped a little bit more this month, very minor, however I am still waiting for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (滬港通) to launch, they say China delay it is because a political decision due to Occupy Central (actually they are more like occupy everywhere in Hong Kong except Central), lets just call it the umbrella revolution (but again, they say it is not a revolution).

Anyway, names are not important, i don't see they have direct connection but let's just be patient, what this Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect actually do is it allows Hong Kong people to buy China stock and allow Chinese to buy Hong Kong stock, it connects both "money tanks" together.

I expect some boast on HK, but i also worry the quality of Chinese corporation will downgrade HK stock market, there are still many corruption and fake accounting in China listed companies, but overall i think this can benefit both HK and Shanghai in long term.

Moreover, there is a fundamental difference between China and HK, China stock market is mainly driven (80%) by investors of normal citizen (散戶), while HK stock market is mainly driven by institution investors (機構投資者), i must apologies if you find the following statement offensive: yet most of the mass are stupid and irrational, when the market is driven by the mass, the stocks are easily manipulated. HK stock market is more stable because institution investors usually are long term investors, so they won't sell and buy quickly, i afraid when once we are connected to China, many local Chinese will get involve in HK market and make our system before more unstable and volatile, but let's see

On the other hand, US keep making new high, i expect the low interest rate will continue before the stock market being heat up to an ridiculous level (they all do in the end of the hype).

regards,
Calvin