MECHCalvin Fund Report May, 2015 - 6th Anniversary

Latest fund price: $1.9801 (+0.1003, 5.34%)

Total Market Value: $1,786,428.43

Total units: 902,177.0315 units

Dear Investors,

Sorry for the late fund report this month, I am travelling on a long hours train to Sweden from Copenhagen (Denmark), which finally gives me time to write, it will be the last part of my 3 weeks honeymoon before I go back to Hong Kong. The trip has been absolutely fantastic, apart from the transportation are quite expensive in Europe, we are enjoying it very much.

My fund is doing not bad too while I am away, It goes further 5% up, we are getting very close to 100% return, bear in mind I started my fund on 4/6/2009, this month is the 6th anniversary, I would say performance wise it is doing OK, but I am not going to rush it.

For the surprising good return single stock, remember it topped at $2.96 (+220%) last month, then I said if you think this is crazy, you have seen nothing yet? Guess what happened this month? it kept going from $2.5 to highest $8! This is like 750% return in 2 months! I originally owned 120k shares purchased at an average price of $0.935, last month I have sold

1. 40k shares @ $1.45

2. 40k shares @$2.5

This month I have sold further

3. 20k more shares @$4.4

4. 8k shares @$5.7

5. 4k shares @$7.2

I have already realized $210k profit on this stock while still holding 8k shares worth around $60k, this is absolutely fantastic! My cash reserve is at all time high and by the end of this year, I am expecting to collect another $240k of loan, which will make my fund flood with cash, I will need to start looking for other investment opportunity, and the investment amount will getting bigger and bigger for sure, this “baby” have started becoming a “boy” :)

Lastly attracted few pictures I took during the honeymoon, the views are stunning, getting further from home help me detach from the market, which is actually a good thing.

Regards,

Calvin

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/

MECHCalvin Fund [Correction & Special Announcements]

Dear Investors,

A. Correction

I made a small mistake and left out a stock holding in my calculation which affected the performance, the INCORRECT figure for April, 2015 were shown

Latest fund price: $1.8567 (+0.2349, 14.48%)
Total Market Value: $1,665,188.06
Total units: 896,857.2372 units

the CORRECT figure for April, 2015 should be as following
Latest fund price: $1.8798 (+0.258, 15.91%)
Total Market Value: $1,685,888.06
Total units: 896,857.2372 units

B. Special Announcement 1

I will be in Europe for honeymoon from 22/5 to 14/6, in order for me to enjoy the vacation, I have cashed out many highly volatile holdings, for the big winner i mentioned in my last fund report (1246:HK), I have sold 80% of the holding and realized $150k profit! yet it seems like it still haven't lost its steam and keep drive up to 480%! The remaining holding I have still worth another extra $80k, so I expect the fund price will still have a small jump to around ~$1.9 per unit by the end of May (this fund soon will be doubled!)

C. Special Announcement 2

My wife have quit her job (apparently she had enough after 10 years of work!), she will be staying in Sweden for another month after our 3 weeks honeymoon, after she is back, she will help me taking care of the admin work of my business (both insurance and MECHCalvin fund), this is good news, because this kind of careless mistake will be hugely reduced, guarantee!

That's all! Anyway, I will be writing my next fund report from England, see you then!

MECHCalvin Fund Report April, 2015 - You think it’s crazy? You have seen nothing yet :)

Latest fund price: $1.8567 (+0.2349, 14.48%)

*new high, previous high on Feb, 2015 at $1.6357

Total Market Value: $1,665,188.06

Total units: 896,857.2372 units

Dear Investors,

The market is making a lot of people happy in the previous month, both China and HK stocks have risen somewhere between 18-20% in a single month, small stocks gain 50%-80% are quite common in such bullish time.

How can I have missed that? Most of my stocks have raised anywhere between 3-10%, yet one stand out particular.

1246:HK is in construction business, I have already paid attention a year ago, after many research, I decided to bet big and brought 120k shares at an average cost of $0.935 per shares.

However it doesn't do anything for a whole year, I was very disappointed and heavily doubt my decision, at the worst time I had a paper lost as much as -$21000, but after repeating research and confirming my understanding, I believe this company is heavily undervalue, although feeling difficult, but I didn't sell any shares, finally it has surged a massive 238% in a single month!

When it started its momentum from $0.9 to $1.2 on 13/4/2015, I knew I was right all along, then it burst up to $1.5, I immediately sold one third (40k shares) at $1.45, taken a profit of $20,000 but I regret about it immediately, because it sky rocking to $1.66 per shares the next day and never go back to $1.5, then it rally up to $2.8 in the next few days, I sold another 40k shares at $2.5, taken second profit of $62,000, it finally topped at $2.96!

I have cash out $140k (realized $82k profit), while still owning 40k shares that worth $100k, so I have earned $240k while my initial investment was only $112k (+114%), that’s the biggest win by far!

As for my fund as small as ~$1.4 million, for every 14k profit will boast this fund up 1%, my fund raised 14.48% last month, this single investment have already contribute 10% of the gain. 

I am very happy not because I make money, but because my research have paid off, the long year mental struggle didn't make me give up, and my effort have finally paid off! As I said, for you to invest successfully, you will go through many small winners and small losses, but one major winner can turn the table around completely. I expect this is only the beginning of a bigger bull market in the next 2 years, so if you think it’s crazy? You have seen nothing yet :)

The following chart is to show you how long I have waited!

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/

MECHCalvin Fund Report Mar, 2015 - New life stage, so will my investment!

Latest fund price: $1.6218 (-0.0139, 0.85%)
Total Market Value: $1,473,535.60
Total units: 908572.5143 units

Dear Investors,

So I got married, the difference is now I have less time for computer games, haha. Never less my life have moved on to a brand new stage, but how will it affect my fund?

I expect most of you can hardly remember the 3 major features of this fund, few might remember the first one,

1. No management fee

Even fewer might remember the second one,

2. Minimum investment amount is HK$1

But I guess the third feature is least memorable

3. My investment style will adapt according to my personal life experience.

It literately means this fund is growing on me, like iron man's suit grew on Tony Stark, lately I felt I have become more conservative than i used to be, i guess having a family have changed me a bit, and i cannot be as "adventurous" as I used to be, and I started to think of the future a little more, as least some sort of expectation.

For this fund, I am hoping before year 2020, the fund can grow to around 10 million Hong Kong dollars in capital, and move from angel investors to venture capitalists, that's my plan, so let's see how I will do in this "risky business"

Regards.

Calvin

p.s. Me and my wife will visit UK and Sweden in late May for honeymoon, stock rise, Euro and Pound drop, can the timing be better than this? :)

MECHCalvin Fund Report Feb, 2015 - Do Nothing is Doing Something

Latest fund price: $1.6357 (+0.0289, 1.8%) 

*new high, previous high on Jan, 2015 at $1.6068

Total Market Value: $1,493,813.08 

Total units: 913,230.7695 units

Dear Investors,

I am getting marry this Sunday (8/3/2015), so have been quite busy (and lazy) last month, i didn't do anything other than withdraw $30,000 for an investor from the account.

The stock still going up so once again we have reached the new high, the two major contributor are

1. YST DAIRY (1431.HK) and

2. NGAISHUN HOLD (1246.HK)

The first one is a company produce milk from China, the milk price have been low for awhile since too many supply, the farmers in China had to pour away tons and tons of milk because the cows just don't care about the milk price other than making more milk, even though the company still making profit, it seems the market have highly undervalue this company, there is a saying: "your profit comes from the foolish behavior of the market", this is one of many examples have proven this saying is too true. I expect this stock will at least double my investment portion within 3 years.

The second one is a tiny building company from Hong Kong, i love what they do (literately constructive), and once again, she is not the "hottest pick" from the large fund managers, the funny thing about the fund managers these days are everyone just want to be mediocre, they buy when everyone buy, die when everyone die, but from my 6 years of experience, the best investment usually comes from the companies people don't talk about, not shown in Bloomberg, and most of the analyst consider them as "boring". I also expect this stock will double my profit within 5 years, so lets wait and see.

Although as my title suggest, sometimes do nothing is doing something, most people think of investment meaning you have to look at the price every single minutes, or require people to make a lot of decision everyday, this is false, in fact if you change your investment decision every day, you probably will end up broke, most of the time a true investor just sit there, do nothing and watch them grow.

However, as the fund price go higher, i have felt more pressure, today one of my insurance clients want to give me a 5 digits of money to help her invest, which i refuse strongly, i don't know why, maybe i already feel very comfortable with what i have got and am afraid to disappoint new investors and pressurized by their expectation, or maybe because when i am going to have a family, the desire of taking risk have greatly reduced.

Anyway, hope my new chapter of life will bring me more wisdom in everything.

best regards,

Calvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Jan, 2015 - Being Cautious about China

Latest fund price: $1.6068 (+0.0301, 1.91%)
*new high, previous high on Nov, 2014 at $1.6053
Total Market Value: $1,497,419.56
Total units: 931,900.9058 units

Dear Investors,
2015 start strongly with new high, and the total market cap is very very close to 1.5 million, i didn't do anything, it is just the result of few undervalued stocks i brought last year start to rise, so there is not much to share in term of finance, i will only add one point, China A-shares have raised 50% within 3 months last year, i think it was over-hyped so need to be cautious about it, as the influence of China to Hong Kong will only get stronger each day.

I have been very careful with China companies, firstly most of their public data cannot be trusted, their company reports have many hidden items (corruption, bribing, fake accounting) every investors should watch out, secondly in macro view i never believe in "planned economy" 計劃經濟, i am a huge believer of free market, that the supply and demand can be self-adjusted, as the old saying, "if you want to guarantee a result, eventually you will have to make up numbers." i believe the China government get into a habit of making up numbers in order to reach their "economic targets".

For sure there are many Chinese companies want to do good, and sometimes they do come with surprises, at the moment, the China portion in this fund is less 10%, and no surprise from my Chinese picks yet, still learning to be honest, hope 2015 will come in fantastic.

regards,
Calvin

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/MECHCalvinFund
Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/mechcalvin

MECHCalvin Fund Report Dec, 2014 - Durability & Simplicity

Latest fund price: $1.5767 (-0.0286, 1.78%)

Total Market Value: $1,469,372.99 

Total units: 931,900.9058 units

2014 Fund Performance: +3.77% (exclude 1.288% dividend)

2014 HS Index Performance: +1.05%

Dear Investors,

Happy New Year for start! another year (or 365 days have passed), this year is very mediocre for my fund,although still out perform the index, i did it much poorer than i expected :(

i have run this fund for 6.5 years, it has only grow +57.67%, many might be happy with this return, yet with this small fund size, i expect i could have done much better. well, too many mistakes and inexperience, sometimes without patient or unnecessary fear, make me still feel like an amateur..

​yet my strategy works well, esp. handling opportunity, because it is very simple, i buy undervalue stock at low price and wait for them to become overvalue then sell it for profit, i ain't going to change my investment style, i will only optimize it. 

every year, so many so-called experts try to predict the future, i listen to the wise man Warren Buffett, "Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time."

What i concern more is the durability, Warren Buffett also stated "invest in stocks as you would in a farm" he brought a farm in his home town Omaha 20 years ago, sometimes it will give you good years and sometimes bad years, “Now, 28 years later, the farm has tripled its earnings and is worth five times or more what I paid,”

I am doing the same with the HK stocks, i wish in the coming years, i would able to say, 2014 was just another year didn't come out great but overall we are doing OK.

regards,

Calvin

p.s. I have started teaching from my youtube channel, you can have a look if interested in investment

投資 with MECHCalvin: 

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7PrqLo48DyclQogG-_qEB

個股分析: 

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLpXD88Tmz_4e7dPtoY_cFMgh9GMClTjry

Blog: http://mechcalvinfund.blogspot.hk/