06/2020 $2.0315 *adjusted from $2.0289
07/2020 $2.0839 *adjusted from $2.0335
08/2020 $2.1434
09/2020 $2.1201
10/2020 $2.1114
11/2020 $2.1430
12/2020 $2.2226
01/2021 $2.2235 (Latest) *new high
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $2,553,085.9
Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,148, 222.1486 Units
2020年是不尋常的一年, 大流行病使全球經濟下滑, 但全球股市卻朝相反的方向發展, 相信我們現在可以再一次徹底地將「市場效率假說」扔到垃圾箱裡了. (除非你碰巧在商學院教授該科目)
但是我想先從基金成績開始這份報告, 在2020年許多科技公司開始蓬勃發展, 如果你將任何基金與美國指數進行比較, 例如標準普爾500或納斯達克, 你需要非常有才華 (或極幸運) 才可以擊敗它, 但是如果你與恆指進行比較, 即使你由2019年就陷入昏迷, 基本上也可以輕鬆獲勝. 我沒有投資美國市場, 也沒有投資科技公司, 基金在2020年僅升了7.35%, 主要原因之一是一筆14萬的貸款違約, 約占投資組合的6%, 所以我的「投資回報率」在2020年應該是13.35%左右.
在過去的11年中, 這個基金大約由一半股票和其他東西組成 (貸款, 現金, 貨幣, 貴金屬) . 股票部份上漲了220% (年度化11.15%) , 其他上漲了25% (年度化2.05%) , 這使我們總體上獲得了122%的收益 (年度化7.5%) . 諷刺的是, 我之所以沒有全部投資股票, 是因為一開始我認為股市比貸款風險更大, 但過去10年中股市與經濟之間缺乏關聯性證明了我是錯的.
即使只計股票的200+%回報, 我的11%年度化回報在過去十年中並沒有真正發出甚麼光芒, 當然在2010年至2021年之間, 恆指僅升了35% (年度化2.77%) , 但是如果你查看美國股市, 標準普爾500上漲了300% (年度化13.4%) , 更不用說納斯達克指數上漲了500% (年度化17.7%) , 任何參與美國高科技領域的基金在2020年應已上漲80-150% (佼佼者是ARKK) .
那我會為自己感到羞恥嗎？會和不會, 實際上更傾向不會. 在會的一方, 不是因為責怪自己沒有參與美國市場, 「破壞性創新」, 比特幣或電動汽車板塊等狂熱, 我反而為自己感到驕傲, 因為我是投資者而不是投機者, 在這樣瘋狂的時候不投機是很難的. 好了, 我承認我有投機, 但不會超過投資組合的10%.
而在「感到羞恥」的一方, 是來自多年來我一直欺騙自己接受一些不良資產, 希望它們終有一日會回歸變好, 違約貸款是其中之一, 這是一個警號不管如何自欺欺人, 最終它們都會回頭咬你. 因此, 我拋棄了基金中的許多沒有希望的資產, 例如1314.HK, 0006.HK等股票, 停止向記錄不良的人 (甚至他們是親朋好友) 提供貸款, 並轉換了所有外幣 (英鎊, 美元, 人民幣) 回港幣. 我還開始將股票慢慢轉移到Interactive Broker, 主要原因是它們的交易費用比本地經紀行低得多, 而且可以投資其他國家的股票, 其次是在政治動盪中, 外國公司比香港公司擁有更好的資產保護.
這些改變聽落都很好, 但仍然沒有解釋「緩慢的增長」的原因, 特別當其他人都在賺(更多的)錢時. 老實說, 其實我對進度感到滿意, 考慮到過去4年, 我每年在基金上只花費50 - 120小時 (是的, 是每年), 時間多少取決於手上有多少可用現金, 我也不會經常更改資產配置, 99%的時間都是繼續購買投資組合中已經存在的良好公司, 除非其基本面發生了變化. 股票組合中的每股盈利增長了200% - 400%, 但是盈利增長並不總是意味著股價上漲, 尤其是我選股的領域不在市場上最熱門的領域內, 但最終它們會取得勝利.
當市場處於牛市, 價值投資者的投資組合表現不佳是普遍現象, 而當市場表現一般般時, 其表現卻優於大盤. 以我的基金為例, 2010年基金上漲了+25.6%, 市場僅上漲了+5.32%, 2015年市場下跌了-7.16%, 基金上漲了+12.2%, 2018年市場大跌-13.61%, 基金仍然上漲了+2.65%, 但在2017年, 指數飆升了+36%, 基金只獲得了糟糕的+8.6%.
其背後的原因, 是因為短期內的股價與公司表現有幾好不一定是相關的, 當我說短期, 我的意思是1 - 5年, 但就長期 (10-30年) 而言, 價格會與很好的生意同步. 像我這種防禦性價值投資者, 喜歡那些基本面很好但低調的公司, 但是在過熱的市場中, 沒有人願意向這些公司投入資金, 他們更喜歡那些受到關注的公司, 可能是投機性高及「現金搶奪者」. 當市場恢復到「無聊甚至可怕的狀態」時, 人們會開始意識到, 嘿! 之前那些尖端科技和火箭科學創新真是一個瘋狂的旅程, 但現在看來應該是投資 (投機 *咳*) 一些「安全而且腳踏實地」資產的好時機, 例如這些多年來我們一直無視, 擁有良好的基本面的公司, 而這個循環不斷重複.
在過去十年裡的印銀紙及接近零的利率, 市場更喜歡快速增長而不是良好的基本面的公司, 一些公司生意很好, 但股價保持不變, 另外有些生意不太差, 但是由於吸引了很多討論和期望, 他們的股價飛漲. 我非常懷疑未來十年這種情況會繼續下去, 回看1980年至2000年互聯網泡沫破滅之前的市場, 標準普爾500上漲了1000%以上, 但是在2000年至2010年之間, 標準普爾500十年仍下跌了20%.
就是這樣了, 我希望在接下來的十年中, 基金持有的資產將為我們帶來15 - 20%的年度化增長. 真的嗎? 15 - 20%? 你說笑吧? 如今我們談論的是每年50 - 80%的增長! 這是新時代啊! 我只會說保守一點, 降低預期, 讓時間證明自己.
麥加文
P.S. 我一直以為2020年8月已經完成了周年報告, 但原來我只提供了數據, 然後將只完成了一半的報告留在電腦 (標題: 時間旅行者) , 直到剛剛我試圖找找5個月前究竟寫了甚麼內容, 笑. 有機會我會完成埋佢.
Dear Investors,
2020 was an unusual year, the global economy has gone downhill due to the pandemic, but the global stock market has gone to the opposite direction, I am sure we can now all throw the “market efficiency hypothesis” to the rubbish bin once and for all (unless you happen to teach this subject in business school) .
However I would like to start this report with my fund performance first, in 2020 a lot of tech companies go boomed, if you compare any fund to the US Index such as the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq, you need to be extreme talented (or luck) to beat it, however if you compare to the HS Index, basically you can win easily even if you fell into a coma since 2019.
I neither invest in US market nor tech companies, the fund has only gained 7.35% in 2020, one of the major reasons is a 140K loan was defaulted in Mar 2020, which consist about 6% of my portfolio so my “investment return” should be around 13.35% in 2020.
In the last 11 years, this fund is consisted by roughly half stocks and half others (loan, cash, currencies, precious metals) , half of the stocks gained 220% (annualized 11.15%) , the other half of the portfolio gained 25% (annualized 2.05%) , which gave us roughly an overall 122% gain (annualized 7.5%). Ironically, the reason why I did not go full stocks portfolio is because I believed the stock market is riskier than loans in the early days, the lack of correlation between stock market and economic struggles in the last decade have proven how wrong I was.
Even with 200+% gain in the stock part, my annualized 11% return did not really shine in the last decade, of course between 2010 - 2021, the HS index has only increased 35% (annualized 2.77%) , however if you look at the US Stock market, the S&P 500 has gained 300% (annualized 13.4%) , not to mention Nasdaq has gained a whopping 500% (annualized 17.7%) , any mutual fund that involved in US high-tech area should have gained 80 - 150% alone in 2020 (notably ARKK) .
Should I be ashamed of myself then? Yes and No, more like No actually. On the yes side, it is not because I blame myself not involving in the US market, “disruptive innovation”, bitcoin, or electric car sector frenzy, I am quite proud of myself since I am an investor not a speculator, and it is HARD not to speculate at crazy time like now. Ok, I confess I do speculate, but never exceed 10% of the portfolio.
The “I do feel ashamed” side comes from the way I have deluded myself to embrace some bad assets over the years, hoping they will make it one day, the defaulted loan is one of the few, it is a wake-up call that no matter how you lie to yourself, eventually they will come back and bite you. Therefore, I got ripped of many hopeless assets within the fund, stocks position such as 1314.HK, 0006.HK, stop lending loans to people (even they are friends and relatives) with bad track records, and converted all foreign currencies (GBP, USD, CNY) back to HKD. I have also started moving my stocks to Interactive broker slowly, the main reason is they have much lower transaction fees than the local brokers, also they allow trading stocks from other countries, the secondary reason is foreign firms have better assets protection than HK firms in this political turbulence.
All these changes sound good, but it still does not explain the “slow growth” when everyone is making (much more) money. To be honest I am quite happy with the progress, consider in the last 4 years I spent average 50-120 hours a year (that is right, a year) on this fund depending how much free cash available, I do not change the allocation very often, 99% of the time I just keep buying the good companies already in the portfolio unless their fundamentals have changed. The earnings per share in the stock portfolio have growth 200% - 400%, however earning growth does not always mean rise in stock prices, especially the areas I pick were not in the hottest sectors the market is focusing right now, but eventually they will triumph.
It is common that a value investors portfolio underperforms when the market is bullish, and overperforms when the market is doing so-so. Take my fund as example, in 2010 the fund gained +25.6% while market only raised +5.32%, in 2015 the market tanked -7.16%, the fund gained +12.2%, in 2018 the market plummeted -13.61%, the fund still up +2.65%, yet in, the index soared +36%, the fund has only gained a lousy +8.6%.
The reason behind this is because stock price does not always correlate with how well the company do in short term, when I say short term, I mean 1-5 years, but in long term (10-30 years) , the price will match a business’s well-doing. A defensive value investor like myself favor companies that are low key with good fundamentals, however during a super-hot market, no one want to dump money into these companies, instead they would prefer companies that are under the spotlights, which can be speculative and “cash grabbers”. When the market is back to its “boring even terrible status”, people will start to realize, hey! it was a crazy ride with all these latest technology and rocket science innovation, but now it seems it is a good time to invest (speculate *cough*) in some more “secure and down-to-earth” assets, such as all these companies have good fundamentals we have been ignoring for years, and this cycle keep repeating itself over and over again.
The last decade with all the money printing and close to zero interest rate, the market prefer fast grower over good fundamentals, some business are really good, yet their prices stay flat, while some business are doing ok but since they have attracted so many discussion and expectation, their prices are skyrocketing. I highly doubt this will continue in the next decade, if you look at the market from 1980 to 2000 before the dot-com bubble, S&P 500 rose over 1000%, but between 2000 - 2010, S&P 500 is down 20% after 10 years.
And there you have it, I expect the stock holding will give us 15 - 20% annualized growth in the next decade. Really? 15 - 20%? Is this a joke? Nowadays we are talking about 50 - 80% growth per year! This is the new era man! I will just say be conservative, lower the expectation, and let time prove itself.
MECHCalvin
P.S. I always thought I have finished my anniversary report back in Aug 2020, turns out I have only provided the data, and left my half finished report (titled: Time Traveler) in my computer, until I tried to find what I have written 5 months ago just now, lols. I will finish it when I have the chance.
07/2020 $2.0839 *adjusted from $2.0335
08/2020 $2.1434
09/2020 $2.1201
10/2020 $2.1114
11/2020 $2.1430
12/2020 $2.2226
01/2021 $2.2235 (Latest) *new high
Total Market Value/ 市場總值: $2,553,085.9
Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,148, 222.1486 Units
(English version please click read more at the bottom)
親愛的投資者,
2020年是不尋常的一年, 大流行病使全球經濟下滑, 但全球股市卻朝相反的方向發展, 相信我們現在可以再一次徹底地將「市場效率假說」扔到垃圾箱裡了. (除非你碰巧在商學院教授該科目)
但是我想先從基金成績開始這份報告, 在2020年許多科技公司開始蓬勃發展, 如果你將任何基金與美國指數進行比較, 例如標準普爾500或納斯達克, 你需要非常有才華 (或極幸運) 才可以擊敗它, 但是如果你與恆指進行比較, 即使你由2019年就陷入昏迷, 基本上也可以輕鬆獲勝. 我沒有投資美國市場, 也沒有投資科技公司, 基金在2020年僅升了7.35%, 主要原因之一是一筆14萬的貸款違約, 約占投資組合的6%, 所以我的「投資回報率」在2020年應該是13.35%左右.
在過去的11年中, 這個基金大約由一半股票和其他東西組成 (貸款, 現金, 貨幣, 貴金屬) . 股票部份上漲了220% (年度化11.15%) , 其他上漲了25% (年度化2.05%) , 這使我們總體上獲得了122%的收益 (年度化7.5%) . 諷刺的是, 我之所以沒有全部投資股票, 是因為一開始我認為股市比貸款風險更大, 但過去10年中股市與經濟之間缺乏關聯性證明了我是錯的.
即使只計股票的200+%回報, 我的11%年度化回報在過去十年中並沒有真正發出甚麼光芒, 當然在2010年至2021年之間, 恆指僅升了35% (年度化2.77%) , 但是如果你查看美國股市, 標準普爾500上漲了300% (年度化13.4%) , 更不用說納斯達克指數上漲了500% (年度化17.7%) , 任何參與美國高科技領域的基金在2020年應已上漲80-150% (佼佼者是ARKK) .
那我會為自己感到羞恥嗎？會和不會, 實際上更傾向不會. 在會的一方, 不是因為責怪自己沒有參與美國市場, 「破壞性創新」, 比特幣或電動汽車板塊等狂熱, 我反而為自己感到驕傲, 因為我是投資者而不是投機者, 在這樣瘋狂的時候不投機是很難的. 好了, 我承認我有投機, 但不會超過投資組合的10%.
而在「感到羞恥」的一方, 是來自多年來我一直欺騙自己接受一些不良資產, 希望它們終有一日會回歸變好, 違約貸款是其中之一, 這是一個警號不管如何自欺欺人, 最終它們都會回頭咬你. 因此, 我拋棄了基金中的許多沒有希望的資產, 例如1314.HK, 0006.HK等股票, 停止向記錄不良的人 (甚至他們是親朋好友) 提供貸款, 並轉換了所有外幣 (英鎊, 美元, 人民幣) 回港幣. 我還開始將股票慢慢轉移到Interactive Broker, 主要原因是它們的交易費用比本地經紀行低得多, 而且可以投資其他國家的股票, 其次是在政治動盪中, 外國公司比香港公司擁有更好的資產保護.
這些改變聽落都很好, 但仍然沒有解釋「緩慢的增長」的原因, 特別當其他人都在賺(更多的)錢時. 老實說, 其實我對進度感到滿意, 考慮到過去4年, 我每年在基金上只花費50 - 120小時 (是的, 是每年), 時間多少取決於手上有多少可用現金, 我也不會經常更改資產配置, 99%的時間都是繼續購買投資組合中已經存在的良好公司, 除非其基本面發生了變化. 股票組合中的每股盈利增長了200% - 400%, 但是盈利增長並不總是意味著股價上漲, 尤其是我選股的領域不在市場上最熱門的領域內, 但最終它們會取得勝利.
當市場處於牛市, 價值投資者的投資組合表現不佳是普遍現象, 而當市場表現一般般時, 其表現卻優於大盤. 以我的基金為例, 2010年基金上漲了+25.6%, 市場僅上漲了+5.32%, 2015年市場下跌了-7.16%, 基金上漲了+12.2%, 2018年市場大跌-13.61%, 基金仍然上漲了+2.65%, 但在2017年, 指數飆升了+36%, 基金只獲得了糟糕的+8.6%.
其背後的原因, 是因為短期內的股價與公司表現有幾好不一定是相關的, 當我說短期, 我的意思是1 - 5年, 但就長期 (10-30年) 而言, 價格會與很好的生意同步. 像我這種防禦性價值投資者, 喜歡那些基本面很好但低調的公司, 但是在過熱的市場中, 沒有人願意向這些公司投入資金, 他們更喜歡那些受到關注的公司, 可能是投機性高及「現金搶奪者」. 當市場恢復到「無聊甚至可怕的狀態」時, 人們會開始意識到, 嘿! 之前那些尖端科技和火箭科學創新真是一個瘋狂的旅程, 但現在看來應該是投資 (投機 *咳*) 一些「安全而且腳踏實地」資產的好時機, 例如這些多年來我們一直無視, 擁有良好的基本面的公司, 而這個循環不斷重複.
在過去十年裡的印銀紙及接近零的利率, 市場更喜歡快速增長而不是良好的基本面的公司, 一些公司生意很好, 但股價保持不變, 另外有些生意不太差, 但是由於吸引了很多討論和期望, 他們的股價飛漲. 我非常懷疑未來十年這種情況會繼續下去, 回看1980年至2000年互聯網泡沫破滅之前的市場, 標準普爾500上漲了1000%以上, 但是在2000年至2010年之間, 標準普爾500十年仍下跌了20%.
就是這樣了, 我希望在接下來的十年中, 基金持有的資產將為我們帶來15 - 20%的年度化增長. 真的嗎? 15 - 20%? 你說笑吧? 如今我們談論的是每年50 - 80%的增長! 這是新時代啊! 我只會說保守一點, 降低預期, 讓時間證明自己.
麥加文
P.S. 我一直以為2020年8月已經完成了周年報告, 但原來我只提供了數據, 然後將只完成了一半的報告留在電腦 (標題: 時間旅行者) , 直到剛剛我試圖找找5個月前究竟寫了甚麼內容, 笑. 有機會我會完成埋佢.
Dear Investors,
2020 was an unusual year, the global economy has gone downhill due to the pandemic, but the global stock market has gone to the opposite direction, I am sure we can now all throw the “market efficiency hypothesis” to the rubbish bin once and for all (unless you happen to teach this subject in business school) .
However I would like to start this report with my fund performance first, in 2020 a lot of tech companies go boomed, if you compare any fund to the US Index such as the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq, you need to be extreme talented (or luck) to beat it, however if you compare to the HS Index, basically you can win easily even if you fell into a coma since 2019.
I neither invest in US market nor tech companies, the fund has only gained 7.35% in 2020, one of the major reasons is a 140K loan was defaulted in Mar 2020, which consist about 6% of my portfolio so my “investment return” should be around 13.35% in 2020.
In the last 11 years, this fund is consisted by roughly half stocks and half others (loan, cash, currencies, precious metals) , half of the stocks gained 220% (annualized 11.15%) , the other half of the portfolio gained 25% (annualized 2.05%) , which gave us roughly an overall 122% gain (annualized 7.5%). Ironically, the reason why I did not go full stocks portfolio is because I believed the stock market is riskier than loans in the early days, the lack of correlation between stock market and economic struggles in the last decade have proven how wrong I was.
Even with 200+% gain in the stock part, my annualized 11% return did not really shine in the last decade, of course between 2010 - 2021, the HS index has only increased 35% (annualized 2.77%) , however if you look at the US Stock market, the S&P 500 has gained 300% (annualized 13.4%) , not to mention Nasdaq has gained a whopping 500% (annualized 17.7%) , any mutual fund that involved in US high-tech area should have gained 80 - 150% alone in 2020 (notably ARKK) .
The “I do feel ashamed” side comes from the way I have deluded myself to embrace some bad assets over the years, hoping they will make it one day, the defaulted loan is one of the few, it is a wake-up call that no matter how you lie to yourself, eventually they will come back and bite you. Therefore, I got ripped of many hopeless assets within the fund, stocks position such as 1314.HK, 0006.HK, stop lending loans to people (even they are friends and relatives) with bad track records, and converted all foreign currencies (GBP, USD, CNY) back to HKD. I have also started moving my stocks to Interactive broker slowly, the main reason is they have much lower transaction fees than the local brokers, also they allow trading stocks from other countries, the secondary reason is foreign firms have better assets protection than HK firms in this political turbulence.
All these changes sound good, but it still does not explain the “slow growth” when everyone is making (much more) money. To be honest I am quite happy with the progress, consider in the last 4 years I spent average 50-120 hours a year (that is right, a year) on this fund depending how much free cash available, I do not change the allocation very often, 99% of the time I just keep buying the good companies already in the portfolio unless their fundamentals have changed. The earnings per share in the stock portfolio have growth 200% - 400%, however earning growth does not always mean rise in stock prices, especially the areas I pick were not in the hottest sectors the market is focusing right now, but eventually they will triumph.
It is common that a value investors portfolio underperforms when the market is bullish, and overperforms when the market is doing so-so. Take my fund as example, in 2010 the fund gained +25.6% while market only raised +5.32%, in 2015 the market tanked -7.16%, the fund gained +12.2%, in 2018 the market plummeted -13.61%, the fund still up +2.65%, yet in, the index soared +36%, the fund has only gained a lousy +8.6%.
The reason behind this is because stock price does not always correlate with how well the company do in short term, when I say short term, I mean 1-5 years, but in long term (10-30 years) , the price will match a business’s well-doing. A defensive value investor like myself favor companies that are low key with good fundamentals, however during a super-hot market, no one want to dump money into these companies, instead they would prefer companies that are under the spotlights, which can be speculative and “cash grabbers”. When the market is back to its “boring even terrible status”, people will start to realize, hey! it was a crazy ride with all these latest technology and rocket science innovation, but now it seems it is a good time to invest (speculate *cough*) in some more “secure and down-to-earth” assets, such as all these companies have good fundamentals we have been ignoring for years, and this cycle keep repeating itself over and over again.
The last decade with all the money printing and close to zero interest rate, the market prefer fast grower over good fundamentals, some business are really good, yet their prices stay flat, while some business are doing ok but since they have attracted so many discussion and expectation, their prices are skyrocketing. I highly doubt this will continue in the next decade, if you look at the market from 1980 to 2000 before the dot-com bubble, S&P 500 rose over 1000%, but between 2000 - 2010, S&P 500 is down 20% after 10 years.
And there you have it, I expect the stock holding will give us 15 - 20% annualized growth in the next decade. Really? 15 - 20%? Is this a joke? Nowadays we are talking about 50 - 80% growth per year! This is the new era man! I will just say be conservative, lower the expectation, and let time prove itself.
MECHCalvin
P.S. I always thought I have finished my anniversary report back in Aug 2020, turns out I have only provided the data, and left my half finished report (titled: Time Traveler) in my computer, until I tried to find what I have written 5 months ago just now, lols. I will finish it when I have the chance.
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