MECHCalvin Fund 12th Anniversary Report - It will eventually stop / 麥加文基金12周年報告 - 它最終會停下來

02/2021 $2.2311

03/2021 $2.2050

04/2021 $2.2184

05/2021 $2.2400 (Latest) *new high

Total Market Value 市場總值: $2,915,945.28

Total Units 基金單位總數: 1,301,749.5558 Units

我無法相信這個基金已經生存了12 年，感覺就像昨天，如果2020年還不夠令人感驚訝的話，自上一份報告的2月以來發生了更多不可預測的事件，但先講重要事 - 這只基金的市值已經接近300萬，不是因為一個月內有一些超額回報，而是因為5月份有30萬資金加入，我的一個朋友準備和家人移民到英國，所以決定把她的一部分財富放入這個基金。基金價格仍足夠創新高，有了新的資金，我終於可以將投資組合更高比例地分配到國際市場。由下圖可見，港股極度絕望，不費吹灰之力就可以跑贏恆指，但美股卻不斷創出新高，對港股有期望根本是徒勞無益。

以下是基金的一些新成員：

台積電 (NYSE: TSM) - 如果你20年前投資台積電可能會被嘲笑，過時的晶片業，軟弱的台灣，它只是一間普通的低技術代工廠，現在誰會想到現在他成為世界的「金童」？芯片短缺，技術突破，台積電的優勢遙遙領先於競爭對手。

CD Projekt Red (WSE: CDR) – 這是一家在華沙證券交易所上市的波蘭電子遊戲開發商，你沒聽錯，不是紐約，不是中國，不是香港，甚至不是倫敦，但是在沒人關心的波蘭交易所。CDR製作出幾個世界上最好的電子遊戲系列，但是最被炒作的遊戲 - 電馭叛客2077上年推出時卻非常糟糕，該公司的股價從2020年9月的歷史最高點446茲羅提，跌至2021年5月的161茲羅提，這是一個可怕的63%暴跌，市場忽略了他們已經售出數百萬份遊戲的事實，並且在接下來的幾年裡還會繼續這樣好賣，所以我在170茲羅提左右買了一些，現在感覺還不錯，即使我還沒有時間玩他們的遊戲。

雷神技術公司 (RTX:NYSE) – 終於有一間是美國公司，雷神三分之二的業務來自商業航空，但它也是五角大樓最大的軍事承包商之一，它不像更知名的洛克馬丁和波音生產尖端戰機，雷神專注於防禦系統和導彈。航空業特別是商業航空在疫情期間遭受了巨大損失。自2020年3月的調整以來，大多數公司的股價仍無法恢復，而雷神公司的軍事部門使它處於有利地位，因為無論誰擔任總統，美國的國防開支都將繼續增加。他們在2020年仍然設法產生了23億美元的現金，並授權了高達50億美元的股票回購計劃，RTX的價格由年頭已經上漲了 30%，商業航班可能很快就會恢復，這家公司是一粒尚未被市場發現的隱藏寶石。

宏觀來看，對惡性通脹的恐懼推高了商品價格，像我這樣自2015年以來已經做了最壞打算的人來說，現在正享受著金價從1100美元升至1900美元的快感，當災難來臨這將會是我們用來對沖的資產。

在2018年9月的基金報告中，題目為 - 暴風前夕，當時超級颱風山竹正在襲港，我寫下這些內容

「這個風暴的前一天香港變得超級熱，感覺就像有人試圖掐住你的喉嚨。這種天氣現像和金融界非常相似，10月將是2008年金融危機的10週年紀念，自此美國政府扭曲了金融世界的規則… 一切似乎都很好，但歷史總會重演，沒有人知道風暴甚麼時候會發生，怎樣發生，在哪裡發生，更重要我們不需要知道為甚麼會發生… 正如許多超級投資者已經作出警告，下一場風暴只會變得更大。」

當時我預計牛市不會持續太久，3年後股市卻仍不斷創出新高，就算不理當時所有不可預測的事件，誰會想到covid-19，負油價，史詩式的Gamestop事件，羅賓漢交易程序的興起，瘋狂的加密貨幣泡沫，一系列不幸的事件不僅沒有使市場崩潰，反而燃起了市場高度投機之風，通過刺激經濟收到的支票，許多美國人寧願在家看Netflix及進行加密貨幣/ 股票交易，也不願意上班工作，我們生活在後千禧年以來最奇怪的時代。

然而，正如查理芒格引用經濟學家赫伯斯坦所說的那樣，「如果某件事不能永遠持續下去，它最終會停下來。」所以我的觀點沒有改變，美國沒有可能永遠印銀紙，利息沒有可能永遠接近零，通脹也沒有可能永遠不升，可是沒有人知道風暴甚麼時候來，怎麼來，由哪裡來，我只能保證瘋狂派對要結束的機會比3年前高得多，我不相信它會有個好結局。

I cannot believe the fund survived 12 years, it still feels like yesterday, if 2020 wasn’t surprised enough already, more unpredictable events have happened since our last report in Feb, but first things first – this fund is closed to 3M in market value, not because some hyper-return within a month, but a 300K funding in May, a friend of mine is planning to move to England with her family, so she decided to put part of her wealth into this fund. The fund price still manages to reach a new high though, with the fresh funding, I can finally allocate higher proportion of the portfolio into the international markets. As you can see from the graph below, Hong Kong stock market is ultra-hopeless, beating the Hang Seng Index is effortless, while the US market keep making new high, expect anything from Hong Kong market is like beating a dead horse.

Here are few new members in the fund: 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) – You probably would be laughed at if you invested in TSMC 20 years ago, the chipset industry is old, Taiwan is weak, it was nothing just a standard low-tech factory, who would have thoughts now he is the “golden boy” of the world? With chipset shortage, technology breakthrough, TSMC’s edge is way ahead of its competitor.

CD Projekt Red (WSE: CDR) – It is a Polish video game developer listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, you heard it right, not New York, not China, not Hong Kong, not even London, but from the Polish stock market nobody cared about. CDR produced few best video game titles in the world, however one the most hyped game – Cyberpunk 2077 had an extremely bad launch last year, the price of this company plummeted from the PLN 446 all-time high in Sept 2020 to PLN 161 in May 2021, it was a scary 63% drop, the market simply ignored the fact they have already sold millions of the copies of the game, and will continue to do so in the next couple years, so I picked some up at around PLN 170, feeling pretty good right now even I don’t have time to play their game just yet.

Raytheon Technologies (RTX:NYSE) – Finally an USA company, two third of Raytheon’s business comes from the commercial aerospace, however it is also one of the biggest military contractor for the Pentagon, unlike the more well-known Lockheed Martin and Boeing that produce cutting-edge fighters, RTX focus on defensive system and missiles. The aviation sector has suffered greatly during the covid-19 esp. the commercial airlines, most of them still unable to recover since the correction in Mar 2020, while Raytheon’s military sector keeps them in a good position because of the US defense spending will continue to increase regardless who run the presidency. They still managed to generate $2.3 billion in cash in 2020 and authorized a share buyback program of up to $5 billion, RTX’s price is up 30% year-to-day, with the possibility commercial flight will recover soon, this company is a hidden gem the market has not yet discovered.

In macro view, the fear of hyper-inflation pushes up the commodity prices, people like me that has prepared the worst yet to come for years since 2015, are now enjoying the gold price surge from $1100 to $1900, if shit really hits the fan, this will be our asset for hedging. 

In one of my fund reports in Sept 2018, titled – Before the Storm, the super typhoon MangkhutI was hitting Hong Kong, this is what I wrote. 

“This time Hong Kong gets super-hot the day before the storm strike, it felt like someone try to choke your throat. This weather phenomenon is quite similar in financial world, in Oct it will be the 10 years “anniversary” of the crisis back in 2008 where US government twisted the rules of the financial world… Everything seems fine, but history always repeat itself, no one knows when the storm will strike, and how, and where, more importantly we don't need to know why… as many super investors have already warned, the next storm will only get bigger.”

I expected the bull market would not last too long at that time, after 3 years the stock market keep making new high, regardless of all the unpredictable events back then, who would have thought of the covid-19, the negative oil price, the Gamestop Saga, the rise of Robin hood trading app, the insane Cryptocurrencies bubble, a series of unfortunate events not just didn’t crash the market, it fuels the highly speculative behaviors in the market, with the stimulus check, many American rather to watch Netflix and trade in Crypto/ Stock at home than work, we are living in the weirdest time since the post-millennium era.

However, as Charlie Munger quoted the economist Herb Stein’s saying, “If a thing can’t go on forever, it will eventually stop.” So my view hasn’t changed, it is not possible for US to print money forever, it is not possible for the interest to stay close to zero forever, it is not possible for the inflation stay flat forever, no one knows when the storm will strike, how, and where, I can only ensure you the chance of the frenzied party will come to an end is much higher after 3 years, I do not believe it will end well.