2012年7月基金報告: 現代金融市場的「小波幅」

Launch Date 發行日期	2009/6/4
Launch Price 發行價值	1.00
Currency 貨幣	HKD 港元
Investment Management Fee 投資管理費	0.00%
Market Value 市值	HKD 722,293.85  港元
NAV per unit 單位資產淨值	1.0573

Risk 風險	Low 低
Volatility 波幅	Low 低
Fund Manager Style 基金經理風格	Conservative 保守
Current Investment Strategy 現時投資策略	Wait for chance 等待機會

Manager’s Comment 投資經理簡報
今個月市場有點「小波幅」, 現代金融市場的「小波幅」是指恒指下跌1000點, 「大波幅」如金融海嘯是市場在2個月內可以蒸發50%-75%市值. 市場的動盪在未來只會愈來愈厲害, 可是投資者(甚至非投資者)也變得愈來愈失去安全感. 這次的「小波幅」主要是因為西班牙的10年政府債券息率升穿7%, 債券息率愈高代表沒有還錢能力的風險愈大, 這還是政府呢!

另外, 國際貨幣基金組織IMF又傳聞會推反之前救援希臘的計劃, 一起參與救援希臘的歐洲國家如荷蘭及芬蘭威脅, 一旦IMF放棄救援希臘, 他們也不會「玩」這個救濟遊戲, 令之前希臘不會離開歐元區的希望又打回原形.

歐債的問題看來仍然會是2012年的焦點, 一眾「專家」齊聲說歐債的問題未來20年也不可以完全解決. 大家都覺得很悲觀啊…「專家」們可能都沒說錯, 我也沒有興趣研究, 投資人關心的不是這些因素是否需要非常長的時間解決, 而是股市是否因為這些問題不被解決, 以後就永遠不會有起色呢?

回想2008年金融海嘯時, 大家都說美國真是太自私! 2010年美債問題推出QE1跟QE2印銀紙還錢, 大家又說美國真是損人不利己! 現在大家都沒聽到誰說美國有問題, 大家都一窩蜂指責歐洲是豬, 借錢不還!

我想問問美國的次貸, 美債問題解決了嗎? 不好說次貸跟美債的問題, 上個月那些雷曼「苦主」還在投訴香港政府, 可是美國的股市已經又開始復甦了. 歐債的問題可能真的需要20-30年, 但當有新的環球金融問題出現, 問題不需要被解決, 大家的視線又會被轉移, 股市又開始正常運作.

因為是私人的基金報告, 允許我用一個比喻. 就像中國十個官九個貪, 但誰也不會覺得有問題, 直到有人爆了煲, 見了報, 大家又胡亂指罵一番, 之後又回復正常. 但回復正常是不是代表中國已經沒有了貪官呢? 當然不是, 仍然是十個官九個貪, 只不過影響不到大家, 大家就不出聲了. 國際金融也是一樣, 所有問題從來就不會被解決, 也永遠不會被解決, 那個國家忍不住(中國的說法是: HOLD不住) 爆了煲, 股市又波動起來, 夾雜市場大多數的無知雜聲, 最後又會不了了之.

在這裡各位的智慧型投資人, 應該一早就明白投資的成功,跟身邊市場發生甚麼事可以說是毫無關係, 而本基金也會一直證明這點.

European Situation

This morning the HS index have dropped more than 500+ points, this is due to Spanish 10 years note government generic bonds have exceeded the critical 7%. Rumors say IMF might bail out from the previous agreement of financing Greece, it makes other countries who involved in the agreement such as Holland and Finland also announced if IMF withdraw from this agreement, they will do the same.

The market atmosphere have quickly turned negative due to the agreement which gave positive hope to the market previously might turn sour.

When the market is full of fear, I am ready to use the previous cash reserve to enter the market, if you want to join as well, feel free to contact me.

2012年6月基金報告: 資產分佈比看準大市更重要

Launch Date 發行日期	2009/6/4
Launch Price 發行價值	1.00
Currency 貨幣	HKD 港元
Investment Management Fee 投資管理費	0.00%
Market Value 市值	HKD 715,051.60  港元
NAV per unit 單位資產淨值	1.0485

Risk 風險	Low 低
Volatility 波幅	Low 低
Fund Manager Style 基金經理風格	Conservative 保守
Current Investment Strategy 現時投資策略	Wait for chance 等待機會

Manager’s Comment 投資經理簡報

六月股市回穩, 基金股票都回升, 本月的集資3倍超額完成, 共集大概相等30萬左右的港元. 令現金增加到30%, 基金規模由47萬增加至71萬. 因為股市沒有再下跌, 所以投資策略由上月的準備出擊轉至等待機會.

在股票市場動盪的時候, 大家的注意力都集中在股市, 每天身邊都聽到今天恆生指數又連升或連跌了多少點, 連沒有買股票的也好像關他事. 我有個朋友見面時又會說股市如何如何,恆生指數又跌了多少, 未來下半年會如何,結果有天我忍不住問他:「 你買了甚麼股票這樣緊張?」他回答:「我沒有呀!」-_-"

無論有沒有買股票, 其實在股票的遊戲中勝出, 跟大市的波動關係不大. 把你的注意力集中在大市, 只會受到不必要的影響, 你應該把你的注意力集中在自己手持的資產上, 想想現在應該如何分佈.

好像現在本基金的資產分佈, 30%在現金, 27%在短期借貸, 17%在亞洲基金, 22%在香港股票, 我話之你明天整個歐洲變天, 對我的基金影響實在十分有限, 非常穩健也深感安全.

這就像打風的時候, 大家都將注意力集中在天氣報告, 而不認為應該是時候把自己家中的門窗關好, 上釘. 大部份在股票市場失利的投資人也是一樣, 將希望投放在不可控制的大市, 而不是自己可控制的資產.

控制你可控制的(資產), 對不可控制的(大市)一笑了之, 投資雖然不需秒秒都看住, 但也不是整天望天打掛的學問.

June, 2012 MECHCalvin Fund Portfolio Update.

This month mechcalvin fund has an good example of what a stable portfolio should be like, after the fund raising the cash reserve has increased up to ~30%

Follow by the golden rules of financial planning.

1. at the bottom is cash (31.06%), cash is always the most secure types, the only risk for cash is currency and inflation, high cash reserve meaning high liquidity and high buying power thus potential growth. That's also the reason why people say "Cash is King" at low tide.

2. up one level is loan (27.97%), you can see from many mutual fund and recognized this as bonds, bonds basically is a kind of loan as well, you lend money to companies for fix income and guarantee return, the only risk is default risk - the loaner unable to return, thus it is the second lowest risk of all. High % of loan/ bonds in a fund meaning it doesn't go for aggressive growth, but a stable and less volatility approach.

3. up one more level is business (0.77%), most of the time people see new business has very high risk, but I put this below mutual fund and stocks is because I am directly involve in the business I invest to, my evaluation of them is that they have little chance to fail and loss money than mutual funds and stocks, plus it is only very little at this stage.

4. On the second top level is mutual fund (17.38%), there is a lot of mutual funds on the market with different risk, but the mutual fund I picked is stock fund, which means the fund managers always go for very high stocks portfolio, so it has higher risk and higher volatility. However it still contains lower risk than stocks, since a fund has already diversify its risk by buying a large amount of different stocks (between 50-70).

5. on the top level are stocks (22.81%), contain only 3-4 stocks in this sector gives it the highest risk and highest volatility, but also the highest potential return.

Some people will add derivatives which has even higher risk than stocks, but my fund won't do derivatives because its dangerous nature.

So there you have it, we are at the very safe position no matter how the world is shocking outside, and at the moment it looks pretty calm outside, maybe with some undercurrents, but again, overall we are pretty safe with so much cash in hand!

Thank You

Dear Investors,

Thank you for your support, after the special offer is opened, in the last 2 weeks my fund have already collected HKD 147,858.83 and GBP 12,000, it is equivalent to slightly less than ~HK$ 300k, so a huge thanks for your support and you will not regret it.

For those who have missed the chance, you can still subscribe to this fund any time you want, however only the low tide like last week can give you a profitable return, normal days like now you can't bet anything will give you a decent return.

regards,

Calvin

Beneficiary

Ok, after I have resolved investors' doubt about "what if" I die, just now I got asked about "what if" the investor die.

Those major investors have dumped in more than HK$10k have already arranged this "what-if" scenario with myself individually, however I didn't realize this is also a concern for those small investors who has invested any amount between HK$1 to HK$1000, until couple investors raised this question to me yesterday.

First of all, no one is going to die in the near future, and not even my clients from my life insurance business concern this much what happen if they pass away, so it kinda surprise, it is an investment people look forward to live many years to see the return.

Now everything is base on trust, I know everyone here and everyone knows me, so if anything unfortunate happen to you, I will just return your money to your family. 

But if you don't feel safe, just give me your beneficiary names privately, I will drop it down, yet until things go viral, or individual investor have personal request, I do not feel the need of setting up formal documents for beneficiary, I will return the money to your family base on the following orders.

1. Married or Legal partner
2. Parent (Father)
3. Parent (Mother)
4. Brother (from eldest)
5. Sister (from eldest)
6. Charity

If you have any special request, feel free to contact me. Enough of this question, you have made me feel all depress! We need happy thoughts!

Ready to Hunt!

Dear Investors,

Up until now I have collected (waiting to collect) HKD 32,122, GBP 12,000, and USD 100, it is equivalent roughly HKD 176,830. Although it hasn't reached 10th June, It has already exceed my expectation of HKD100k, it made the cash reserve of my fund increased up to slightly less than HK$250k, yet I still welcome more people to hop on board if you want to enjoy the ride.

The European financial trouble is still unstable, at the market there is still a lot of fear, which is the best time to strike for cheap stocks, that's also the reason why I choose fund raising now to give me more buying power for the upcoming events.

I have already started purchase few stocks that I see cheap enough, I called it "test buy", however I expect the worse is yet to come, thus I will reserve my full power to purchase when the global market really get hit hard.

So please don't be surprise for a little bumpy ride in the next couple months, and I am very confident the return will be pretty sweet after the storm is gone.

Please be patient and bear with me, feel free to contact me for transfer, the best is yet to come!

regards,

Calvin